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The crack is alive: rating, polls and the undercover unemployment bomb

2020-06-02T19:15:57.663Z

Antikirchnerism is revived and Alberto Fernández loses followers among the moderates. The limits of state aid and doubts about the future of the economy.



Eduardo Paladini

06/01/2020 - 15:49

  • Clarín.com
  • Politics

The data is from the microworld of the rating. At 23.38 last Thursday, the "Basta Baby" program hit a peak of 4.8 points; an unusual number for cable TV , especially at that time. But the cycle that Angel Pedro Echecopar leads on A24 had already given a signal the previous Monday; That day he led his strip, despite the fact that C5N was interviewing President Alberto Fernández at the same time. One of the political interpretations is that the journalist, very critical of Cristina's management, is capitalizing on a renewed and growing anti-Kirchnerism .

The same explanation, analysts add, could be applied to the good audience that Jorge Lanata had in his annual debut in Journalism for All, by El Trece. There were about 12 average rating points. Without reaching the records of 2013, it reached one day to be among the most viewed in May. It was not easy: Jesus came first (Telefé, novel).

"They are signs, flames that light up. The same as the protest in the Obelisk to ask for more opening in the quarantine. There were not four anti-K ladies from Recoleta. There is a bad mood against the Government, which I even think is not being reflected in telephone surveys. Perhaps it is seen more on the networks. But something similar can happen to what happened in the run-up to the PASO , when the rejection of Macri was not reflected in the electoral polls. They are movements, sometimes underground, to the you have to be vigilant. "

The speaker is a consultant who has measured for Kirchnerism for years. He listens to him worried: "There is hidden unemployment here , which is a time bomb. What will happen when the coronavirus leaves and the government stops assisting companies to pay wages? How are they going to stop the layoffs? "

Other leaders warn that more than the future, the present is already very worrying. According to Clarín , despite the fact that double compensation applies, 91,000 registered jobs were lost in April compared to March. The arm of the state has limits.

The recent announcement of a second payment of the 10,000 peso bond also merits accounts. When this reinforcement is completed, between the end of June and the beginning of July, it will have been a four-month period since the first case of Covid was detected. Thus, on average, the subsidy drops to 5,000 pesos per pandemic month.

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An official source assures that due to these delays between the announcement (the pre-registration started on March 24) and the effective payment to the more than 8 million beneficiaries (some have not yet received the first installment), the head of the ANSeS, Fernanda Raverta , raised the possibility of a retroactive. That the second bonus is 20,000 and not 10,000. "There is no money," would have been the concise response from the Ministry of Economy led by Martín Guzmán.

In any case, it is not this universe that increases its claims to the Government. For Alejandro Catterberg , director of Poliarquía Consultores , Alberto Fernández would be losing the unprecedented support from Macrista voters that he got at the start of the pandemic. "It seems that the stage of the broad consensus that was generated in the first two months of the crisis is coming to an end. The political-party lines are beginning to explain important changes in public opinion. If this trend continues two or three more weeks, we return to point".

The image of Alberto Fernández

National survey of 1,062 cases. May 2020. In%

Tap to explore the data

Source: SYNOPSIS Infographic: Clarín

The latest work by Poliarquía shows a drop in the view of how the President faces the crisis. Basically because disapproval among Juntos por el Cambio voters increased : at the beginning of April it was 18% and at the end of May it reached 40%. Among K electors, approval remains nearly complete. The crack was reopened.

Another recent survey, by the firm Synopsis and carried out by Clarín this Sunday, is even more explicit. The image of Alberto Fernández fell there for the fourth consecutive time. Its positive evaluation lost 11 points between the end of March (59.1%) and the end of May (48.1%). But beyond the total number, the disaggregation made by the consultancy between the K and the M is interesting. The "very good" weight of the President in the first case is 67.4%; in the second, only 3.4%. In the "very bad", the imbalances are reversed: only 3.2% among voters of the Front of All and 37.4% among those of Together for Change.

Like Catterberg, political scientist Lucas Romero ( Synopsis) warns that Alberto Fernández's numbers are returning to their "original state". "The political dispute came out of the initial shock and resumed its dynamic: the ruling party criticizing the opposition and the opposition criticizing the ruling party. This is causing public opinion to return to its pre-pandemic political position," said Romero, who in previous reports He had made another point: people who saw Cristina's "high incidence" in the government, more than they wanted, and this impacted the presidential image.

A third and well-known analyst, Sergio Berensztein , assures that, in his numbers, the President never reached such high levels, but he continues to maintain high support regarding the fight against Covid 19. What is your current view? " The crack had never been eliminated, much less . There was simply an anesthetic effect, due to the pandemic, which in fact continues. There is a differentiation of sanitary measures, on the one hand, and other aspects of leadership, on the other." 

Source: clarin

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