As activity slowly picks up in France, the impact of the shock inflicted by containment on the economy is becoming clearer. It is now clear that many sectors will not recover from this crisis for years, if ever. Following economists, the government has therefore lowered its growth forecast. In the third amending finance bill for 2020, which will be presented by Bruno Le Maire and Gérald Darmanin in the Council of Ministers on Wednesday June 10, the hypothesis of evolution of the GDP was set at - 11%, never seen in peacetime.
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"It simply means that the economic shock is extremely brutal, explained the Minister of the Economy this Tuesday morning on RTL. It also means giving us all the measures to boost growth in 2021. ” Among these solutions are the sectoral plans dedicated to tourism, culture and events in the broad sense, but also to the automobile, aeronautics, building and tech, which will be debated within the framework of this new law. of amending finance. Between consumption incentives and aid to businesses, these plans hope to limit the carnage that threatens these sectors.
Bercy is also preparing a recovery plan focused on supporting business investment, the terms of which are expected by the end of August. “This revival will have to redo the link with our economic policy for supply, competitiveness, innovation. It must be coordinated with all our European partners and it must be green, Bruno Le Maire once again reminded the Assembly this Tuesday afternoon . We want to transform our economic model. Let us make this crisis the chance for a green rebound for our economy! ”
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All of these plans are expensive. Bercy has not yet released the latest estimates of public deficit and debt increases for the year. In April, they were fixed respectively at 9% and 115% of the GDP. In the wake of growth, these indicators will also be degraded, with debt expected around 120%. In the initial finance law voted last December, the executive banked for modest growth of 1%, after 1.5% in 2019. In 2020, economic growth was indeed handicapped from the start by the bad last quarter of 2019 , which influences the inclination of the "launching pad", or the "acquired growth", of the following year.
Household caution
The estimate was then revised, during the first amending finance law voted at the start of confinement, at the end of March, at -1%. At the time, the government still hoped that activity would pick up significantly in the second half. Then, in April, the extreme violence of the crisis appeared inevitable and the hypothesis of a rapid rebound, improbable. The second amending finance bill then expected activity to contract by 8%. The new estimate of - 11% is more in line with the forecasts of economists, who worry about the difficulty of consumption to rebound. “The French economy has passed its low point. The deconfinement generated a revival of activity and employment, notes Philippe Waechter, of Natixis Ostrum. However, the levels observed still show a contraction in activity and great caution on the part of households . "
