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The secrets of Alberto Fernández and Roberto Lavagna in their reserved talks: dollar, debt and the post-pandemic

2020-06-08T00:25:48.921Z


What was discussed at the Olivos summit. Guzmán's role and allusions to Macri and the IMF. Was there a reconciliation of the former minister with Cristina?


Santiago Fioriti

06/06/2020 - 23:55

  • Clarín.com
  • Politics

-AND? What did you think? - Alberto Fernández asked Roberto Lavagna.

Two days were left before Martín Guzmán swore in as Minister of Economy. At the request of the then president-elect, Guzmán had gone to visit Lavagna at his home in the Buenos Aires neighborhood of Saavedra. They chatted for several hours.

"He made a good impression on me, he's down to earth and the right balance between orthodoxy and heterodoxy, " replied the economist.

That first dialogue was followed by others, as reserved as the talks that Fernández has been holding with Lavagna since his inauguration. And some that, professedly, were made public, like the one on Wednesday at the Olivos Residence, but already with the three of them sitting at the same table. Negotiating with bondholders and how to build a post-pandemic plan in the midst of a phenomenal crisis were the central themes of the lunch. They are themes that go hand in hand. But not the only ones.

Fernández pointed out that Argentina must face a progressive tax reform and Guzmán told, to the approval of the guest, that he was already working on the first phase of the project. There was also debate, with a tone of concern, about the gap between the different types of dollars that reign in the market. The three made it clear that in the short term it will be necessary to be "finer" in exchange rate policy. Telephone for Miguel Pesce, the president of the Central Bank.

Lavagna, who was a rival to the Frente de Todos in the race less than a year ago, has become a presidential adviser in the shadows. There are those who see it as a dam of containment against the sectors of extreme positions of Christianity. They see it or want to see it like that. Is not easy. Alberto is also Cristina and her powerful network of influencers in the Government and in Congress.

For example, when the deputy Fernanda Vallejos spoke in favor of the State keeping a part of the companies that are financially helped by the pandemic, several official voices, and even two ministers, came out to say that they had to pay attention to it. Lavagna spoke out against Twitter, from the solitude of her bovine genetics and embryo transplant hut, in Cañuelas.

The President settled that discussion a week later. He talked about "crazy" ideas that do not go through his head. He said the same thing on Wednesday to ten of the country's main businessmen who went to see him in Olivos. After the usual greetings, he told them that he had come to meet Lavagna. "If they want to know how I think, I think like him," he confided.

It was the way he found to try to generate empathy in the midst of a cold and suspicious relationship, which reached its point of greatest tension two months ago, when the head of state himself questioned Paolo Rocca for wanting to part with 1,450 employees and called him of "miserable". The dialogue, however, took place in a cordial tone. He had started with jokes under his breath towards one of the most modern businessmen, who came up with a look that seemed daring in front of those who only wear suits: tight pants, rubberized hair and exotic patent leather shoes. 

Alberto showed that his was, in a way, a request for help. He said that recovering from the collapse will be very hard and that the support of all sectors will be needed . Rocca was not there, but  there were already contacts for a meeting alone with him. The list of attendees included Luis Pagani (Arcor), Luis Pérez Companc (Molinos), Marcos Bulgheroni (Pan American Energy), Mariano Bosch (Adecoagro), Javier Madanes (Fate-Aluar), Martín Migoya (Globant), Daniel Herrero ( Toyota) Roberto Murchison (IDEA), Miguel Acevedo (UIA) and Sergio Kaufmann (Accenture).

Some of the executives left the meeting with the idea that Alberto could make touches in the Cabinet as a signal to the Red Circle . Will Lavagna be included in those changes? It seems difficult. "President or nothing," he said in the campaign. There were polls. Today it sounds strong that they could tempt him to chair the Economic and Social Development Council. More: a high source of the Government assures that some time ago there was an approach between Lavagna and Cristina. What kind, and if it was in person or in a phone chat, is unknown.

The relationship between them was non-existent since the economist broke with Néstor Kirchner. Now, again in Olivos, even briefly, Lavagna once again raised one of his old obsessions: a law that helps small and medium-sized companies. He believes it would be key for the next stage. "They are the great generators of employment. They take eight out of every ten employees in Argentina and today they are at the limit of what they can tolerate in terms of taxes," he usually explains.

Already in 2005, Lavagna had promoted the SME Law, an initiative that managed to have a half sanction in Deputies by a large majority. At that time he was still a Kirchner official. When the project turned to the Senate it coincided with his departure from the Government and Kirchnerism, coincidentally, ceased to interest him. It was never treated again .

Days ago, a very similar one was presented by Alejandro "Topo" Rodríguez, a man he trusted. It is called the Law for the Support of SMEs in Argentina and establishes the creation of an Emergency Fund for SMEs to access loans at a zero rate and for a term of two years, together with the possibility of exempting them from the payment of Income Tax if they reinvest their profits in capital goods for three years. The President would have given him his commitment that he will have the wink to be approved. And of Christianity? It seems that too.

Nothing would make much sense, they agreed in Olivos, if Argentina fell into default. A topic that Guzmán and Lavagna have been talking about for many months. The former minister has told Alberto that one must be tough in the negotiation, both with the bondholders and with the Monetary Fund, and questions him that he has not been more forceful with the inheritance left by Mauricio Macri in this matter. " Be careful, Martin, outside they are going to tell you that you have no financial plan ... and when they show it to you, they are going to tell you that they don't like it, " was one of the first suggestions that Lavagna made to Guzmán. A déjà vu .

At the Fernández-Guzmán-Lavagna summit, although it did not emerge, another actor also participated. Gustavo Béliz. Which, in turn, was the articulator of the subsequent meeting with businessmen. Béliz is gaining more and more ground in the intimacy of power.  Its low profile is a registered trademark and it shows even in the movements. They have seen him arrive in Olivos by bicycle, dressed in sportswear. He then goes through a locker room, changes his clothes, and changes again before returning home. His friends suffer and ask him to be careful with the traffic. Béliz answers them to stay calm. That your bike has a good cat's eye.



Source: clarin

All news articles on 2020-06-08

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