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Elections in Bolivia: study casts doubt on OAS analysis

2020-06-09T15:41:44.463Z


A report by independent investigators described the OAS analysis as “deficient”, which concluded that there was fraud in the Bolivian general elections in October 2019.


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OAS Final Report cannot validate 2019 elections 3:19

(CNN Spanish) - A study by independent researchers described the analysis of the Organization of American States (OAS) as “deficient”, which concluded that there was fraud in the general elections in Bolivia in October 2019.

The investigation was based on data from the Bolivian electoral authorities obtained by the American newspaper The New York Times.

The OAS report that has been questioned concluded that during the Bolivian presidential elections there was an irregular increase in the trend of votes in favor of Evo Morales, which was classified by the body as “inexplicable”.

Almagro: Evo Morales wanted to stop audit report 4:08

Now, the report prepared by three researchers, two from the University of Pennsylvania and one from Tulane, concludes that the increase "inexplicably" in the votes in favor of former President Evo Morales when the count resumed is not necessarily due to the commission of fraud.

Experts believe that the alteration could be due to incorrect data and inappropriate statistical techniques.

CNN attempted to contact the study authors but we have not yet received a response. However, Tulane University economist Francisco Rodíguez, who was part of the study, spoke to The New York Times about the findings and said they found irregularities with the method used by the OAS. "Once we correct those problems, the OAS results disappear, leaving no statistical evidence of fraud," Rodríguez told the newspaper.

  • READ: OAS concludes in audit that there were irregularities in elections in Bolivia; Evo Morales calls for new elections

The authors, Rodriguez, Nicolás Idrobo and Dorothy Kronick, clarify in their report that they only examined the quantitative evidence and not the integrity of the entire election, so their 28-page analysis does not deny the existence of irregularities.

During the hours after the polls closed, the preliminary results showed that Evo Morales slightly outnumbered his opponent, former President Carlos Mesa.

The opposition and international observers became suspicious after election officials stopped the count for about 24 hours without explanation.

When the process resumed, Morales' advantage had increased significantly and he had the necessary votes to avoid the second round.

In its final audit of the Bolivian presidential elections, the OAS had detected, among others, changes in the minutes and falsification of the signatures of table juries and the redirection of data to two hidden and uncontrolled servers by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal ( TSE).

Amid tensions and growing opposition, former President Evo Morales resigned from his post in November 2019 and left the country. The resignation was also requested by the head of the Bolivian Armed Forces, who asked Morales to resign in order to achieve stability and peace. Morales always denied the accusations of having committed fraud in the elections of October 20, 2019.

Final OAS report on voting in Bolivia: irregularities in Argentina 0:48

CNN contacted the OAS press department to find out its position on the matter and has not yet received a response.

In statements to The New York Times , the OAS said that it supports the statistical analysis they carried out because in this way they were able to detect the first signs of fraud.

The OAS chief of electoral observers, Gerardo de Icaza, told the newspaper in response to the doubts raised by the new study that “the statistics do not prove or refute the fraud. Solid evidence like false statements and hidden computing structures do it. And that's what we found. "

  • READ: Bolivian Foreign Minister insists that there was a coup and that the OAS was part of it

For his part, Professor Irfan Nooruddin, from Georgetown University and an OAS consultant who carried out his statistical analysis, told the newspaper that the new study misrepresented his work and was wrong. According to the newspaper, Nooruddin "did not provide details or share his methods or data with the study authors, despite repeated requests."

When a report was released in February that also cast doubt on the OAS conclusions, the agency defended its position via Twitter.

Last week, Bolivian political parties agreed to schedule the holding of the general elections for September 6. The elections had been set for May, but were postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Bolivia ElectionsEvo MoralesFraudOEA

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2020-06-09

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