Political situation
Written by: Lin Jian
2020-06-09 07:00
Last update date: 2020-06-09 07:00The anti-revision incident has occurred for one year so far. As we all know, this storm that reversed the entire political landscape of Hong Kong was caused by the dispute over the amendment of the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance. Looking back at the controversy, it is still a mystery whether the whole thing was promoted by the chief executive Lin Zhengyue himself, or by Beijing’s own initiative. At least no one can explain it publicly.
"Hong Kong 01" tried to reorganize the information of last year's event and the analysis of comprehensive politicians, and the answer obtained was quite uniform: the amendments originated from Lin Zhengyue himself. All because Lin Zheng was ambitious after winning the "one place, two inspections" from the high-speed rail, hoping to go to the next city, and underestimating the defeat of the enemy, causing the worst governance crisis since the return. It can even be said to change the direction and influence of one country, two systems The global situation such as Taiwan and the United States.
▼Dispute process of fugitive offenders▼
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Revise the rules and regulations, win battles with one place and two inspections and hope to win another battle
After Lin Zhengyue took office in 2017, the political atmosphere was once relaxed, and the atmosphere of opposition in the era of Liang Zhenying's administration declined. In the "Political Honeymoon Period", Lin Zheng scored as high as 63.6 points. The policy introduced in the first policy address also focused on people's livelihood, and he rarely touched sensitive political issues.
The main political disputes at that time were the amendments to the rules of procedure of the Legislative Council and the issue of "one site, two inspections" at the West Kowloon Station of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link. In particular, the latter, the issue of the "Ligu" of the democratic faction at that time was described as "two inspections", but it could not be prevented in the end. The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress passed the relevant decision on December 27, 2017. The Legislative Council passed the two inspections in June .
More than one politician told "Hong Kong 01" that Lin Zhengyue saw the political controversy and won the "temptation", hoping to win another battle, becoming her biggest "thrust" to push forward the revision of the "Fugitive Offenders Ordinance", Lin Zheng Zhenxin believes that the amendments are not excessive, and that the judgment has a "bottom card" for justice for the victims, so he is full of confidence.
On February 12, Secretary for Security Li Jiachao submitted a document to the Legislative Council to amend the "Fugitive Offenders Ordinance" and the "Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Ordinance" to delete the provisions of the Ordinance that do not apply to "Hong Kong and other parts of China", and It is recommended that other places that have not signed a long-term arrangement with Hong Kong may submit a "one-time case" transfer request to the chief executive.
An establishment person who did not wish to be named stated that the day the Security Bureau submitted a document to the Legislative Council to propose amendments to the "Fugitive Offenders Ordinance", the DAB accompanied the victim’s mother, Pan Xiaoying, to hold a press conference in the morning and asked the Hong Kong government to extradite Chen Tongjia to Taiwan. Obviously, there are long-running scripts, "Lin Cheng thought that the compassion of the people of Hong Kong would offset the fear of amending the fugitive offender regulations, and finally proved that she was wrong."
Another politician analyzed that Lin Zheng promoted the Amendment of the Fugitive Offenders Act at that time, in fact, it can achieve another important effect: deterring some hostile forces with Beijing through amendments, such as separation forces, reducing the central government’s urging the Special Administrative Region to stipulate the Basic Law. The pressure of Article 23 legislation.
Lin Zhengyue’s failure to promote the revision of the “Fugitive Offenders Regulations” triggered the biggest political chaos since his return in 1997. (Profile picture/Photo by Liang Pengwei)
Tian Beichen broke the news: 612 The next day Lin Zheng went to Shenzhen to see the Beijing official
Tian Beichen, a member of the Legislative Council of the Political Affairs Roundtable and a representative of the National People’s Congress of the Minato District, spoke bluntly in an interview with "Hong Kong 01". As far as he understands, the amendment is not a hard directive from the central government: "After the conflict broke out on June 12, Lin Zheng went up the next day Seeing Beijing officials in Shenzhen, they received instructions to suspend amendments. If it was a hard order from the central government, how could the central government withdraw it so quickly?"
He quoted various sources as saying that the background of the whole incident was actually two customs clearances in one place, two Kowloon West Legislative Council by-elections in 2018, which was defeated by the establishment system, and the Shazhong Central Line scandal. The government "handed up and fell off" Li Wei. The formation camp is in full swing, so Lin Zheng wants to do one more step, "So I proposed to Wang Zhimin (who was the director of the Liaison Office at the time) and Zhang Xiaoming (who was the director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the current deputy director) Zhang Xiaoming, and then reported to the central government, but in the end Lin Zheng was wrong. The people's sentiments and promotion methods are poor, and the central government mistrusted her."
Tian Beichen lamented that throughout the process of promoting revisions, the Lin Zheng government "can make mistakes and make mistakes," especially the reaction after the parade on June 9. "When you see hundreds of thousands of people take to the streets peacefully, you should think about it? The result is not that you responded late and continued to break through. The President of the Legislative Council said that it will be reviewed for seven days in a row. Not only does it not brake, but it will also step on the accelerator ..."
When Liu Xiaoming was interviewed, he pointed out that the central government has never instructed the SAR to promote amendments. (Profile picture)
Lin Zheng keeps "slapping his mouth" Democrats successfully snatch the right to speak
In fact, the "Fugitive Offenders Ordinance" is of a special nature, especially involving the "firewall" between the Chinese and Hong Kong legal systems, and is extremely sensitive. Lin Zhengyue "played in person" in March, responsible for explaining the amendments to the public and the media. However, in the process of marketing amendments, the performance of the SAR Government was unsatisfactory, and was repeatedly criticized as "self-mouthing."
For example, a voice suggested that a single handover to the Taiwan authorities could resolve the incident. The Taiwan authorities even repeatedly stated that they would not accept the amendment as a prerequisite for the handover of Chen Tongjia, but the government insisted on the need to amend the law to "plug the loopholes in the system." Democrats found the government When the "Fugitive Offenders Ordinance" was reviewed in 1997, it was mentioned that the mainland was deliberately eliminated. Democrats use this as an argument, saying that this arrangement is not a "loophole" but a firewall.
Another serious logical problem is that the government announced the latest amendment on May 30 last year, stipulating that the transfer request can only be made by the country's "central government". However, this leads to another question: politically, Taiwan has a special status. If the "Central Government" proposes the transfer, which agency should propose the transfer of Chen Tongjia? Lin Zheng and Li Jiachao could not answer.
As a result, public sentiment rebounded strongly, and the democratic faction successfully handled the issue, interpreting the amendment as the "Send to China Ordinance", which received the response from the entire non-establishment system and even the middle citizens. Foreign governments and business circles also expressed concern about the amendment. On April 28, the Democratic Front launched the second anti-revision procession, saying that 130,000 people participated (the police said that there were 22,800 during the peak period).
Seriously underestimate the difficulty of revision
On June 9, a large number of citizens took to the streets to protest against the amendments. The FDC claimed that 1.03 million people participated (the highest peak was 240,000), which was the largest parade since the July 1st March 2003. However, the government issued a "historic" decision that night: hard break. The bill was read the second time on June 12.
Many members of the establishment faction believe that Lin Zhengyue seriously underestimated the difficulty of amending the regulations. Tian Beichen, a member of a moderately organized factional round table legislator, said in an interview with Hong Kong 01 last November that when he saw hundreds of thousands of people marching on the streets for peaceful demonstrations, the government should stop the amendments in the morning.
What happened next has become a familiar story. On June 12, a serious conflict between the police and the public broke out outside the Legislative Council. Lin Zheng announced the suspension of the amendments on June 15 and the withdrawal in September. The regulations have been pulled down, but social and political issues that have hidden in Hong Kong for many years, such as undemocratic political systems, conflicts between China and Hong Kong, the disparity between the rich and the poor, and the opposition between the police and the public, have broken out in one conflict. The matter is still unresolved to this day.
During the anti-revision law storm, street demonstrations continued. (Profile picture)
Politicians: The central government "was seated" on the same boat
6.12 After the Admiralty conflict, Hong Kong has once again become an international concern. On June 13, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) broadcast a visit by Chinese Ambassador to the United Kingdom Liu Xiaoming, pointing out that the central government has never instructed the SAR to amend the regulations.
Some politicians pointed out that this is not a deliberate demarcation between the Central Committee and Lin Zheng, but a fact. "Revisions were originally proposed by Lin Zheng himself. Although Beijing always wanted to do (revisions), but based on one country, two systems, it has never been shot." However, since Lin Zheng proposed the revisions, politically, the central government will not not support it . As a result, the central government boarded the same boat. After the regulations hit the rocks, the SAR government, along with the entire establishment and the central government, were all affected.
▼The controversy between the parties of the Hong Kong version of the National Security Law Legislation continues▼
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A storm affects the global situation
A turmoil has affected the situation in Hong Kong, Taiwan and even China and the United States. In the storm of amendments, the street demonstrations that once fell into a low tide after the 2014 Umbrella Games and the Mong Kok riots in 2016 reappeared; after the 2016 DQ wave, the localists were quiet for a while, but they were again concerned in this demonstration wave; the 18 District Councils in recent years It has always been the world of the establishment faction, but the turmoil has hit the prestige of the government, and the establishment faction has all hit the wall. As a result, it suffered a historic defeat in the district board elections in November last year.
At the central level, the leadership of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office and the Liaison Office of the Central People's Government have changed their personnel and organizational structure early this year; in particular, the National People's Congress decided at the end of May to directly take action to formulate the "Hong Kong District National Security Law" for Hong Kong, which is unprecedented. Initiatives. At the international level, this anti-government wave in Hong Kong has even become a factor in the Sino-US game.
A year ago, who would have expected that it was just an amendment to decide that such a huge butterfly effect would be drawn?
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Demonstration of Anti-Amendment Example Report of Anti-Amendment by the Supervisory Commission Lin Zhengyue