On the employment front, the situation will prove to be very complicated for many months. And given the country's economic situation, this hardly seems surprising. This Tuesday, the latest ManpowerGroup barometer of job prospects confirms this trend ... The results of this barometer carried out in 44 countries and territories, from April 15 to April 18, with 34,000 employers from private companies and d public organizations, including 1093 French employers - and of which Le Figaro reveals the main results for France - are anything but encouraging. The net employment forecasts for the third quarter of 2020 are negative and reach -11%. The lowest figure ever recorded by the recruitment agency.
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This negative percentage results from the balance of hiring prospects and intentions to downsize. In other words, this negative figure indicates more layoffs in the coming months than hirings ... The detail of the barometer is in this sense unequivocal: if 13% of employers report intentions to hire conversely, during the third quarter, 21% plan to reduce their workforce. In addition, 55% of companies do not anticipate any change in their payroll in the coming months and 11% do not know how their situation will change. This means that the net employment balance stands at -8% (seasonally adjusted, it stands at -11%). A figure that confirms the painful months ahead ... To give an idea of the extent of the shock linked to the coronavirus, during the 2009 crisis the outlook was " only " -4%.
" This barometer reflects the economic consequences of the health crisis," comments Alain Roumilhac, President of ManpowerGroup France. Economic activity in France plunged 27% in April due to confinement, slightly less than in the second half of March, when the fall had been 32%. Business leaders anticipate a lasting economic crisis and therefore limit their hiring forecasts as much as possible as long as uncertainty remains high ”. In detail, it is obviously the hotel and restaurant sector which appears to be the most affected by the crisis. The hiring forecasts are catastrophic since they reach -54%, a decrease of 66 points compared to the previous quarter and 71 points over a year. The other sectors, slightly less affected by the crisis, also posted negative balances. Seasonally adjusted net employment forecasts are -14% in manufacturing, -11% in financial, insurance and real estate activities, and -10% in construction.
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In terms of company size, once again there is no surprise. The smallest organizations are suffering the most from the crisis. The forecast of workforce reductions is the most significant in companies with 10 to 49 employees, with a net employment balance of -16%. " This figure stands at -13% in large companies, and the situation is not much more exciting in medium-sized companies and VSEs, which show a net employment outlook of -8% and -6% respectively, " said also the barometer.
