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Written by: Chen Qianting
2020-06-10 16:34
Date of last update: 2020-06-10 16:39The epidemic of the new coronavirus pneumonia took the lead in Wuhan City, Hubei Province since the end of last year. It has swept the world in just a few months. The epidemic has not been reduced so far. In early March, the Hong Kong Government sent four charter flights to pick up 469 Hong Kong residents stranded in Hubei. One of them returned to Hong Kong and was diagnosed. The Hong Kong government quoted the data as saying that the risk of Hubei is lower than that of overseas regions.
The latest research by Yuan Guoyong, a lecturer professor of the Department of Microbiology at the University of Hong Kong, and his team revealed that among the 452 people who returned to Hubei, 17 serum samples of asymptomatic persons were tested for antibodies with new coronavirus, that is, they had been infected and the positive rate returned to 3.8 %. The team used this to estimate that among the 59 million people in Hubei, up to 2.2 million people may have been infected. Compared with the number of diagnoses in Hubei, the team said that up to 97% of the local people have been infected but never diagnosed.
The team also analyzed the serum samples taken by nearly 2,000 Hong Kong residents from April 2018 to early 2020. All of them did not have antibodies to the new coronavirus. The team believes that the results reflect that this is a new virus, and the number of people with antibodies is as low as 0.05%. Before the emergence of antiviral drugs and effective vaccines, the team suggested that measures such as quarantine requirements for immigrants and voluntary wearing of masks should continue. The research has been published in the international scientific journal "Needle (Microbiology)".
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17 patients who returned to Hong Kong without symptoms have detected antibodies
In this study, serum samples were collected from 452 of the 469 returnees from Hubei to test whether they had antibodies to the new coronavirus, and 17 of them refused to be taken. The results showed that 17 out of 452 people with no symptoms had antibodies, the positive rate was about 3.8%, 15 of them tested positive for neutralizing antibodies, and two of them only tested positive for enzyme immunoassays. In terms of regional distribution, 16 people come from Wuhan and 1 person comes from Jingzhou.
Du Qihong, a member of the research team and a clinical associate professor in the Department of Microbiology of HKU, explained that the neutralizing antibody test is highly sensitive, and the enzyme immunoassay has about 1% to 2% false positives, but the two people are classified as having antibodies in the body because of the two The person came from Wuhan. At the time of the test, more than 60,000 people had been diagnosed in Hubei. From a scientific point of view, the chance of positive is higher. Even if the two were eliminated, the infection rate of people returning to Hubei would be at least 3.3%.
It is estimated that 97% of patients in Hubei have never been diagnosed
The team used the positive rate of returnees from Hubei to recalculate that among the 59 million people in Hubei, it is estimated that up to 2.2 million people may have been infected. Comparing the number of 67,802 diagnosed patients in Hubei in March, it is estimated that about 97% had The infected patient has never been diagnosed. The team also pointed out that the number of deaths in Hubei was 3,193 by the end of March. If estimated from 2.2 million infected people, the mortality rate is about 0.16%, which is nine times the 0.017% pandemic mortality rate in 2009.
Du Qihong admits that there are often errors in the calculation, but he believes that even if there is an error, the actual number of confirmed cases in the local area must be much higher than the published figures. This is also a common situation of general infectious diseases, such as the antibody screening of influenza. The number of diagnoses is very different.
Xu Deyi claimed that more than 200 local cases did not travel outside Wuhan to Hong Kong without compulsory saliva testing
Du Qihong said that the data of infectious disease antibody screening is often higher than the number of diagnoses. (Profile picture/Photo by Lin Ruoqin)
Only 0.05% of the people in Hong Kong have antibodies before they have the drug vaccine or re-emergence
The team also analyzed 1,938 Hong Kong people's serum samples taken from April 2018 to February 2020. All the samples were unnamed. The results showed that 53 samples were tested in enzyme immunoassay or neutralizing antibody test. Positive, but no samples were positive in both tests.
Du Qihong said that since the number of diagnosed cases in Hong Kong was only dozens in February this year, the rate is extremely low. Even if some samples are positive in one of the antibody tests, the probability of infection is also very low, so the team believes that the above two thousand None of the samples contained antibodies against the new coronavirus, which proves that there is no new coronavirus in Hong Kong in 2019. This is an emerging virus.
The team also estimated that the antibody ratio of Hong Kong people is expected to be less than 0.05%. Before there are no antiviral drugs and effective vaccines, another outbreak is inevitable. It is recommended that Hong Kong should maintain a wide population of voluntary masks, customs control, and requirements Arrangements for immigrants to accept quarantine.
Du Qihong also pointed out that if the current barriers are to be relaxed, the public's risk of contracting the disease will inevitably increase. If the virus can be detected earlier, it means that the number of invisible patients with viruses will be reduced in various occasions such as large-scale gatherings. Therefore, the number of virus detections must be increased at the same time as the restrictions are relaxed.
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