“ The world economy has almost stopped. Emmanuel Macron himself agrees, as do all the major political and economic leaders. After the health crisis, the economic crisis. A crisis that will affect the entire global economy. Recession, debt, unemployment ... Le Figaro reviews the forecasts of the major economies of the globe for the year 2020.
Historically low growth rates
Global growth is expected to fall by 6% in 2020, according to recent OECD forecasts. “ In March and April, there were breaks in activity never observed since the Second World War. This reflects the confinement observed almost everywhere, ”explains Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Ostrum Asset. " What is very special," he continues , "is that there is both a very rapid economic downturn, but also synchronized. We are all in the same bag. The figures are dizzying: -11.4% forecast here according to the OECD (the government is counting on -11%), -11.3% in Italy, -11.5% in the United Kingdom, -9.1 % for the eurozone or -7.3% expected in the United States.
Some growth forecasts for 2020 Le Figaro
" We see a very large divergence between countries ", begins Eric Dor, director of economic studies at IESEG. So why does France seem more affected? According to him, these are “ differences in severity in containment measures. The same thing happened with Philippe Waechter. “ INSEE has repeated that our economy is running at 65% of its capacity. By comparison, Germany was 80%. "
Read also: Have all Europeans taken the same measures against the crisis?
According to him, three factors will play on the recovery. " The strength of the economic policies put in place, the possible changes in behavior on savings and the dynamics of corporate bankruptcies", he details, recalling that " all these elements create uncertainty about what will happen . " According to him, the coming months are "essential" so that the recovery can take place more quickly, even from 2021. Eric Dor warns: all these figures are to be taken " with tweezers ". A second wave that would hit our economies, or even China, for example, would naturally worsen these forecasts, due to the " interdependence of the countries between them ".
Unemployment explodes everywhere
The second element, as impressive as it is worrying, is unemployment. Again, the numbers plunge to different degrees. Still according to the OECD, with the hypothesis of a " single shock ", thus ruling out the possible second wave accompanied by a reconfiguration, France will see its unemployment rate drop from 7.8% in the first quarter to 12, 3% in the fourth. 8.5% against 12.4% in Italy, 3.9% against 9.7% in the United Kingdom, or 13.9% against 21.8% in Spain. In the United States, OECD unemployment forecasts point to a drop from 3.8% in the first quarter of the year to 10.4% in the last. In Germany, the explosion of the unemployment rate is however not expected: 3.4% in the first quarter against a modest 5% expected in the fourth.
Comparisons of unemployment estimates between Q1 and Q4 in 2020 Le Figaro
In analyzing these figures, " we must not neglect the differences in sectoral specialization of the countries ", continues Eric Dor. The countries around the Mediterranean will necessarily be more affected, due to a colossal drop in tourist activities, he explains. He cites France as well as Spain or Portugal. “ Some regions, like the Canary Islands, live only on tourism. There, the impact will be destructive, ”he analyzes. Similarly, if industrial trade is struggling to resume, Germany will suffer a stronger impact, he warns.
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" The typical profile is a bad first quarter, a second worst then a significant recovery in the third and fourth quarters ", adds Philippe Waechter. He then quotes the 2.5 million jobs already recreated in the United States in a few days. " Half of it is the reopening of restaurants, " he says. " We can have effects very quickly, " says the economist again.
Faced with stimulus plans, debts grow
The debate is raging in France and elsewhere: what to do with our debts? How to repay these colossal loans from around the world? In France, the debt at the end of the year should amount to 121% of GDP. This is around twenty percentage points more over a year. But France is no exception. +17 points for Germany, 19 points for the United States (forecast on October 1, 2020 according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget) or 20 points for Spain.
Read also: Public debt climbs to 101.2% of GDP in the first quarter
At the level of the great world powers, the debts should increase in a fairly equivalent manner. For the coming years, they will depend more on the economic recovery and could, there, take different paths. Here, the data for China is not known.
The debts of the major world economies will all increase by almost the same Le Figaro