A specialist in international and defense issues, Hadrien Desuin is an essayist. He published La France atlantiste ou la naufrage de la diplomie (éd. Du Cerf, 2017).
FIGAROVOX.- Was France right to withdraw from the Sea Guardian operation led in the Mediterranean by NATO, to protest against the lack of arbitration of the Atlanticist organization in the dispute with Turkey?
Hadrien DESUIN.- France saves honor after NATO refused to take its side during this naval incident between the French and Turkish fleet, off Libya. This French suspension is a movement of humor sent to the American big brother which gives consistency to the report of “brain dead of NATO” evoked before the last summit of the alliance in London last December. It is a gesture which can, of course on a smaller scale, make one think of the Gaullian withdrawal from the integrated military committee of NATO in 1966.
We fight in the Middle East first and above all against the return or advance of Russia in the region.The Atlantic Alliance (NATO), which remains under American supervision, hates to broach the subject of Turkey, a veritable strategic taboo. Ideally located facing south of Russia and facing west of the Middle East, Turkey is a centerpiece for the Pentagon and NATO. This positioning explains the NATO complacency towards Erdogan's clandestine support for the jihadist and brotherly militias of Misrata and Tripoli. It is not so much a question of supporting the puppet government of Fayez El Saraj at arm's length or of clamping down Marshal Haftar in Benghazi, Washington is simply afraid that Haftar's Libya will become a Russian protectorate in the Mediterranean, on the Syrian model. And so Washington and NATO let Turkey nibble on the ground in Syria, Iraq and now in Libya, without ever being upset by the authoritarian and military drift underway in Ankara.
How to understand the silence of NATO?
The DNA of NATO, created in 1949, is Russia's strategic push back, nothing more. The NATO auxiliary missions in the Middle East can quite well be interpreted as an extension of this main mission: we are fighting in the Middle East first and foremost against the return or advance of Russia in the region. The fight against terrorism is perceived as quite secondary, it is a pawn in the fight against Moscow. This trend has been accentuated since the Eastern European countries, formerly under the tutelage of the Warsaw Pact, joined the Atlantic alliance and have their gaze fixed on the east. The tacit support of the latter to Turkey in the Courbet affair could moreover have been negotiated in exchange for the validation by Turkey of the new NATO defense plans, which are still in the direction of Russia. NATO has the wrong adversary, in reality. Turkey is much more dangerous for the security of the Mediterranean and Europe than Russia. This is how Turkey, without NATO moving, supports Islamist and jihadist militias in Syria and Libya against our own security interests (terrorism in the Sahel and illegal immigration).
The hypothesis of a more serious conflict between Turkey and France is to be taken very seriously.Is Ankara's policy increasingly threatening to French interests?
This is only the beginning as it is very likely that Turkish military power will increase in the years to come. For the moment, Erdogan is content to attack weak or medium powers and this is certainly neither the first nor the last controversy between the two French and Turkish presidents but the hypothesis of a more serious conflict between Turkey and the France is to be taken very seriously. The Courbet affair is a warning, especially as Erdogan has powerful influence relays in France but also in the Balkans. France's support for Greece and Cyprus must now be strengthened.
Read also: Erdogan sows discord within NATO
Is Turkey justified in asserting that it is essential for the proper functioning of NATO?
Turkey's role in NATO was to contribute to the advanced defense of Europe. As soon as Ankara turns against Europe, and in particular against France, the interest of having Turkey in NATO is nil. Turkey is the NATO Trojan horse. This is why France would so much like to develop a Europe of defense, which would allow it to free itself from American power but also from the Turkish threat. Alas, she is very alone.