J-116 and a popularity rate that dropped to 40%. With less than four months to go before the US presidential election, Donald Trump has been going through a delicate political sequence since April. In a quarter, the head of state lost 6 points of popularity in the summary of numerous polls carried out daily by the site fivethirtyeight.com.
This fall began in April, during the Covid-19 pandemic. While his crisis management was praised in March, Trump was caught up by the gradual increase in the number of new patients and the curves soaring in many states. At the same time, the American president did everything to minimize the crisis and limit containment measures.
Less and less undecided
Then came the death of George Floyd, following an arrest by the police. Throughout the month of June, millions of Americans marched through many cities under the slogan "Black Lives Matter". An anger that the president never sought to calm, posing as a divider much more than a unifier.
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Then came the case of Russian bonuses that were allegedly paid to the Taliban for killing American soldiers. Then Trump had to deal with the exit of his ex-advisor Bolton's hotpot, while waiting for the book written by his niece, to be published on July 14, in which she curdles her president's uncle. Last Thursday, the Supreme Court ruled that a prosecutor was entitled to demand that Donald Trump obtain his tax slip, a serious legal setback for the president. Do not throw any more!
According to several experts, this sequence is the most difficult to manage politically for the American president since the start of his mandate in January 2017. But the most dangerous dossier, for Jean-Eric Branaa, senior lecturer at the University of Paris-II, specialist in the United States, it is the health crisis: "The rest will not move the lines on the electoral level because it is very partisan: concerning the demonstrations against racism, for example, those on the left are very committed to supporting the movement, and those on the right see it mainly as a problem of violence. "
The political scientist takes this as proof of the unpopularity of Trump, who since April has increased more than his popularity has declined. But another crucial figure is moving: the percentage of respondents who say they are undecided has decreased, from around 5% to almost 3%. On a population of more than 300 million inhabitants, this development can have a major impact in the polls on November 3. "This proves that those who are not traditionally included in parties are making their choice, and more often than not against Trump," points Jean-Eric Branaa.
A peak of unpopularity in December 2017
"No matter how hard I look, there is nothing that works for him. The difference with all the previous complicated moments is that it could always, rightly, claim dizzying economic results, "said political scientist Nicole Bacharan. There, due to the health crisis, unemployment exploded. And Donald Trump notably loses support in the senior electorate, which is generally mobilized more than the average.
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“It's a very delicate sequence for him but, above all, that lasts. Trump has been following the difficulties for several weeks, both on matters that concern him directly, such as the tax form, but also on his inability to respond to the health crisis, "added Marie-Cécile Navès, researcher associated with the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (Iris).
There has been no shortage of trouble for Donald Trump since the start of his term. We remember in particular the investigation by prosecutor Mueller into the suspicions of Russian interference, concluding that there was no evidence to incriminate the American president or his team for "collusion" with Russia. Then, of the trial of Donald Trump in impeachment in the Ukrainian affair, at the end of 2019.
"Every week, we were told that Trump was going to be removed, but that had no chance of happening [in particular because of the Republican majority in the Senate, note]," tempers Jean-Eric Branaa, deeming it excessive to have , until early spring, wanted to bury Donald Trump. He even fell to its lowest popularity rate in December 2017, at the end of his first year in office, before gradually climbing up the slope.
What participation on November 3?
But in view of the current situation, and the rather successful campaign of Democratic candidate Joe Biden, the political scientist "does not see how Trump could go up the hill, 116 days from the election." The American president is even struggling to fill his meeting rooms, as on June 20 in Tusla. "It is not for all that he has already lost, especially as the Republican Party does everything to dissuade young people from going to vote", nuance Marie-Cécile Navès.
A final factor could come into play: if the health situation remains worrying at the start of the school year - a record number of more than 65,500 new cases in 24 hours was identified this Thursday throughout the country -, certain States could set up and encourage postal voting to limit physical contact. Without it being possible to measure its precise impact on the participation of the different categories of voters.
The American Minister of Justice has already asserted that "these practices, like postal voting, open the floodgates of possible fraud". Many Democrats saw this as a sign that Trump and his administration were seeking to discredit a ballot whose outcome promises to be complicated for them.
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