Political situation
Written by: Lin Jian
2020-07-13 07:00
Last update date: 2020-07-13 07:00In 2020, the National Security Law of the Hong Kong District is coming, and the political situation of Hong Kong has entered a new stage. Back to the beginning, this change stemmed from the anti-"Fugitive Offenders Regulations" revision outbreak that broke out in June 2019, as well as a series of large and fierce demonstrations that shocked the city. History is made up of countless accidents. Many people have lamented this past year. This change could have been avoided.
"Hong Kong 01" collected a large amount of unexposed information from people at different levels of society, trying to find out the disputes of the revision law. In the past year and a half, the communication, dialogue, and game process between the key figures of various roads have been linked into a series of six episodes. Some of the content is public, and some details are still unknown to the public. All this, starting from 2017...
One of Six Minutes of Revision
One high-speed rail and two by-elections have trained Lin Zheng's "confidence"
On the morning of September 22, 2018, the West Kowloon Station of the Hong Kong section of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link. Inside and outside the station, celebrities and businessmen gathered, waiting for the opening ceremony of the railway. On that day, Chief Executive Lin Zhengyue was full of ambitions and looked like no one could stop him.
Lin Zheng went to the stage and said to the present guests and reporters, "Everyone in the morning! On behalf of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, I welcome everyone to attend the opening ceremony of today's "Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong" high-speed railway Hong Kong section and witness this together "Historical moment." In his 6 minutes and 37 seconds speech, Lin Zheng couldn't bear to smile several times, referring to the construction process of high-speed rail, how Hong Kong is integrated into the overall situation of national development, and two places to check for efficiency and speed, and thank the Legislative Council for passing in a timely manner. Two inspection legal arrangements.
At that time, it was still Lin Zhengyue's "strong" period. According to the figures of the Hong Kong University, her latest popularity was 50.8 points, which was a drop from the peak in her early tenure, but it was still at a qualified level.
This is for a reason. After Lin Zheng took office in 2017, the atmosphere of political opposition was eased. The legislative rules of the Legislative Council were amended, and the two parties were inspected in one place. The democratic factions were unable to parry. The so-called siege of the Legislative Council eventually ended up with hundreds of people. In the scandal of the center line in the Saudi Arabia, Lin Zheng's hands were up and down. MTR executives were all held accountable. The government did not have to go up and succeeded. Except for Typhoon Mangkhut and Tomorrow Lantau, there were some minor disturbances. There were no other important negative news, and no one could shake her governance.
A number of institutionalists and officials in the government who did not want to disclose their identity told "Hong Kong 01": "Successful clearance at one place and two places is a great indicator for Lin Zheng. The dispute involves China-Hong Kong issues, legal disputes, and demonization by the pan-people. This also passed the test, and the society was calm again. Lin Zheng and even the entire government have become less vigilant about opposition."
Two months later, the results of the Kowloon West by-election of the Legislative Council were released: 106,457 votes for the establishment faction Chen Kaixin, 93,047 votes for the Labor Party Li Zhuoren, and 12,509 votes for Feng Jianji. The two democratic factions add up to less votes than the establishment faction. This is the second time in a year that the formed faction has won in the single-seat, single-vote by-election, breaking the record of the long-term victory of the democratic faction in the regional direct-to-single since the return. The winning candidate Chen Kaixin said to the media with excitement: "I believe that voters are just like me, society should not be noisy, not only conflicts and contradictions." She also said that the victory shows that Hong Kong people value people's livelihood more than political disputes.
For the by-election two-game winning streak, morale is strong for the establishment faction; for the government, it is more time to believe that public opinion is turning. Tian Beichen, a member of the Legislative Council of the Practical Administrative Roundtable, said: "(Lin Zheng) seeing that the golden ratio of the June 4th Movement of the Pan-Primary Democratic System was broken, and the momentum is like the Japanese side. Of course, it is heart-shaking and of course it is confident.
At that time no one would have thought that this "confidence" completely rewrote Hong Kong's future destiny.
Chen Tongjia (middle), a suspect in the towed corpse case, made a decision to escape back to Hong Kong, causing a global "butterfly effect." (Profile picture)
Lin Zhengrui broke into the mentality of civil servants: you have to hit the wall yourself, you
In February 2018, an appalling case of abandoning a dead body occurred in Taiwan. Based on the absence of extradition arrangements between Hong Kong and Taiwan, the suspect Chen Tongjia who fled back to Hong Kong could not be extradited to Taiwan for trial. On February 12, the victim’s mother, Pan Xiaoying’s mother, accompanied by the chairman of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong, Li Huiqiong, and parliamentarian Zhou Haoding, appeared at a press conference and cried out that her daughter had exposed the dead wilderness, but the law failed to punish the suspect, and she burst into tears. It is proposed to delete the provisions of the Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Ordinance and the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance that do not apply between "Hong Kong and the rest of China", becoming the starting point for the ongoing fierce street demonstration conflict in the past year.
Many people in the community have strongly rebounded on the amendments, worrying that this is equivalent to breaking the legal firewall between Hong Kong and mainland China, and political dissidents may have the opportunity to be sentenced to other Mainland China for trial. But for the government, sensational elements and legal justifications are all available, and it can be used to fight hard. In addition, the democrats have been unable to fight back in the past year and a half. In Lin Zheng's eyes, this seems to be a "no win" battle.
An institutional legislator analyzed: "Lin Zheng has always retained the personality of the Hong Kong-British colonial bureaucracy. She knows how to seize the opportunity to get points in front of her boss. She often has this consciousness. The Chen Tongjia case gave her a chance to connect The legal system between China and Hong Kong will add points in front of the central government."
The senator quoted a senior government official as saying: "Since the Tung Chee Hwa era, successive capitals have thought about amending the "Fugitive Offenders Ordinance" to open up the connection with the Mainland, but every time they are researched halfway, they retreat. Because of the underlying technology Officials urged not to do it, otherwise the consequences will be serious." The official revealed that while Lin Zheng pushed the "Fugitive Offenders Regulations" to be revised, some officials also persuaded her not to push again, but Lin Zheng insisted on going to Malaysia, and the officials could not obstruct her. But there is a feeling of waiting for the show in the bottom of my heart: "You are so determined that you hit the wall with your head, then you like it."
The mother of the victim of the homicide in Taiwan and the members of the Legislative Council of the DAB met with reporters, and the sensational element became Lin Zheng's "political opportunity." (Photo by Yang Wanting)
"Send"-exaggerated but efficient slogan
The talk is divided into two ends. The democrats have experienced a low tide of nearly three years since the 2016 DQ wave. However, the impact of amending the "Fugitive Offenders Ordinance" is too broad. Not only are political dissidents or mainland Chinese who have fled to Hong Kong to avoid the wind, but even some Hong Kong businessmen who are running Chinese businesses are worried about "giving gifts" and "unblocking" in the Mainland in their early years. The past will be accidentally turned over, or even convicted of business disputes. For a time, the whole city is like a red hot pot, and the public's feelings boiled unconsciously. However, at this time Lin Zheng still did not feel that a storm was about to blow.
On March 4, a human rights group in Taiwan initiated a rally, saying it opposed the "send to China" regulation. The term "delivery" may be exaggerated, but it is undeniable that in this respect, many Hong Kong people are concerned about the fear of being interrogated by "delivery", and on the other hand, take the homonym and negative meaning of "delivery" (for funerals). To arouse Hong Kong people’s fear and mistrust of the mainland’s legal system. Since then, the entire democratic camp has deliberately expanded the word "send to China" to become the slogan for future demonstrations.
Some democrats said: "The term "send to China" was not figured out by Hong Kong politicians, but it is simple and clear, and the message is clear, so everyone (non-organized camp) feels good and is willing to use it, called "entry into the house". "
In April 2019, the Judgment and Judgment in the Zhanzhong Jiuzi case. Chen Haohuan said that this incident further ignited the anger of the supporters of the democratic factions. (Profile picture / Photograph by Liang Pengwei)
Democrats regain the right to speak Lin Zheng still not aware of the big crisis?
The democrats reunited the popular sentiment in the campaign of the "Fugitive Offenders Regulations" and launched a counterattack in the field of public opinion. What is driving this change?
Chen Haohuan, the deputy convener of the Democratic Front, explained this way: "On March 31 last year, we organized the first anti-revision parade with 12,000 participants (the police said the peak period was 5,200 people). At that time, everyone thought that the number was not large, and the topic might be speculated. Not hot, hesitated whether to continue to hold. But to the second march on April 28, we saw 130,000 people participated (the police said the peak period of 22,800), many people in the professional community came out against the amendment. From time to time, we know that popular sentiment is back!"
He recalled that in the April 9th Zhongzi case ruling, the founders Dai Yaoting and Chen Jianmin were sentenced to prison, which drove the emotions of the entire democratic camp. "Someone told me that even those who advocate peaceful demonstrations are so oppressed and feel very angry and want to take to the streets." In addition, Lin Zhengyue was accused of having a bad attitude when he sold the amendments, ignoring the opposition, and the more dissatisfied The more accumulation, the combination of various factors has finally produced a political nuclear bomb that has never been seen before.
Hosted the Kai Tak Sports Park and started to shovel mud easily
Unfortunately, perhaps because of being too confident, or perhaps because the voice around him is too low, Lin Zheng almost unaware of the crisis. On April 23, when she attended the groundbreaking ceremony of the Kai Tak Sports Park, she wore a helmet and gave a buzzing speech: "I believe everyone, like me, is eagerly looking forward to the completion of the sports park and pushing Hong Kong's sports development to a new level!" Take it easy, pick up the shovel. Unknown at the moment, does she think that "there is a major project to start, and there is another achievement"?
During her attendance at the Question and Answer Session of the Legislative Council on May 9, she responsively responded to the various doubts of the Democrats: "Everything is nonsense." Democrat Chairman Hu Zhiwei was dissatisfied with Lin Zhengyue's answer and screamed: "You don't die It doesn't work, bastard." After Lin Zheng heard it, the first reaction was to shake his head and smile, showing disdain.
"Reconnect" on the street and the council
"When I saw so many people protesting outside the street, Lin Zheng's attitude was so bad. We know that we can do more in the parliament." Some Democrats said. In the case of the Bills Committee of the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance of the Legislative Council in May, the Democrats insisted that the most senior MP Tu Jinshen preside over the meeting, deliberately "fighting twins" with the formed faction. On May 11th, the two factions competed for control of the meeting, and physical conflict broke out. Even the two parties of democracy and citizens who were criticized for being too "tiny" in the past, became "valorous."
The democratic MP continued: "Actually, before May 11, we didn't have a very clear coordination of the division of labor, and we depended on everyone to play the "genius wave." But the effect came out quite well, causing people outside the parliament to pay more attention to the amendments. I haven’t seen it for a long time. The streets and the parliamentary front can be merged in this way and complement each other."
On May 11, 2019, the Legislative Council Bills Committee "Troubled Twins" incident. (Photo/Photo by Li Zetong)
Amendments continue to "peel teeth" to strip logical loopholes
The matter developed to May, in fact, the Hong Kong Government has already been riding a tiger. On the one hand, Lin Zheng has expressed the idea of amending the law to Wang Zhimin, then director of the Liaison Office of the Communist Party of China, and Zhang Xiaoming, then director of the Hong Kong and Macao Office, seeking the central government’s “blessing”, and finally obtained the public support of the Vice Premier Han Zheng of Hong Kong and Macao Affairs; Going down the stairs can only be accelerated, and the tactics are becoming more and more rapid, including skipping the Bills Committee and submitting directly to the General Assembly to resume second reading.
However, at this point, the attention of the amendments has risen to the level of the business community, overseas chambers of commerce and foreign governments, and even some local establishment factions have begun to shake. A senior institutionalist said: "The business community has persuaded her (Lin Zheng), and the Pakatan Rakyat has been persuaded. She insists on doing it, but the regulations continue to "peel the teeth." The government has twice revised the content of the amendments. Among them, the Director of the Security Bureau, Li Jiachao, announced on May 30 that the threshold for the transfer was increased from a maximum prison sentence of 3 years or more to 7 years, and that the transfer request can only be made by the central government of the jurisdiction.
First, the effectiveness of the regulations has been greatly reduced after continuous "peeling teeth", and some establishments such as the New Democratic Party Chairman Ye Liu Shuyi clearly expressed their dissatisfaction; the more serious logical problem is that the government claims that one of the amendments’ "initial intention" is to deal with murder in Taiwan. Case, but Taiwan has a special status in international politics. If the transfer request can only be made by the "central government" of the jurisdiction, which agency should request the transfer of Chen Tongjia? No official can answer.
A member of the Democratic Legislative Council pointed out: "We proposed not to amend the law before and talked to Taiwan about a single handover (Chen Tongjia). She (Lin Zheng) said no. At this time, even the situation in Taiwan was unclear. The government gave The perception is that they are not going to deal with any legal loopholes from beginning to end, but have another purpose."
On June 4, before Lin Zheng attended the executive meeting, a reporter asked whether the Chief Executive would support the redress of the June 4th and 30th Anniversary. She said: "Today, many people have a memory." I wonder if she has Unexpectedly, because of her relationship, there are many days in June that have become memories that Hong Kong people cannot forget?
▼The process of disputes between fugitive offenders▼
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Rewrite a sentence in Hong Kong's history
The 6.9 parade held by the Democratic Front, the organizer said that 1.03 million people participated (the police said the peak period was 240,000), which was the largest parade since the return of Hong Kong. There were crowds of people in many districts throughout the day, filling up many MTR stations. The original starting point, Victoria Park, was no longer enough to accommodate the parade. Some people had to join from North Point, but the process was generally peaceful throughout the day, with only sporadic collisions.
The government issued a press release at 11:07 that evening to respond to the march. The content basically repeats the arguments of the past few weeks, which is to defend the amendment. The only focus of the full text is on the last sentence, but it is also this sentence, rewriting the history of Hong Kong:
"The Bill will resume the second reading debate in the Legislative Council on June 12." 612, the prelude to the whole lawsuit.
(End of the first round)
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