Mariano Roa
07/12/2020 - 13:37
- Clarín.com
- Zonal
"In five or six more days we are going to be able to measure the effectiveness of the quarantine and see if the coronavirus infections have dropped, " the Buenos Aires government minister, Teresa García , had assured on July 4. "As of the weekend (by Friday 10) we will be able to start to see if the decision to return to phase 1 is bearing the expected results or not, " said the infectologist Eduardo López, one of the main advisers to the National Government.
That is, the possibility of returning or not, from July 17, to a somewhat more relaxed confinement depends on the course of the pandemic, according to the official data of those infected, published from this Friday. But apparently, most of the mayors of the Conurbano have already decided what should be done after July 17.
Map of the number of infected of Covid each 100,000 inhabitants by municipality until Thursday, July 9.
The GBA bosses differentiate between those who kick their way back (if it were for them as soon as possible) to a phase 3 and those who press to endure (no matter what happens) one more week in phase 1 . The division is marked, although on one arm of the scale more mayors are concentrated than on the other.
Axel Kicillof, would be willing to return to a more flexible phase despite the fact that several mayors ask him to stretch phase 1 one more week.
If it were up to you, and with the data of those infected in your municipality since you returned to phase 1 ten days ago, what would you do ? Of 13 GBA chiefs consulted by Clarín , nine did not doubt the need to get out of strict confinement. The rest, on the other hand, are more cautious and even tell Kicillof that the wisest course would be to extend one more week before breaking the more rigid quarantine that started on July 1.
The mayors of Together for Change, and also several of its main figures, support Larreta's decision to flexiblize the quarantine
"Beyond the internal and divergences, there is something that all the mayors are very clear about: no one wants to be the first municipality to have a coronavirus death on guard because there were no beds to be admitted to intensive care," says a Peronist chief from one of the most populous communes in the West.
In the group that defends (and even claims) the return to phase 3 are all the municipalities governed by the PRO or the opposition (San Isidro, Lanús, Tres de Febrero, Vicente López and San Miguel). Also most of the Peronists such as Morón, Escobar, Almirante Brown, Ezeiza, Florencio Varela and José C. Paz.
The handful of mayors who, worried about the data of the last 10 days, are inclined to stretch "at least" seven days plus strict quarantine are the bosses of Esteban Echeverría, Tigre, Ituzaingó, Malvinas Argentinas and Avellaneda.
Among the undecided, as balancing between the concern about the saturation of the health system and the strong pressure of the merchants who claim to be able to return to work, are Lomas de Zamora, Quilmes, San Martín and San Fernando.
La Matanza is always a separate chapter due to the fear generated by any overflow. The post July 17 could return a photo that paralyzes both its mayor Fernando Espinoza and Governor Kicillof: tens of thousands of residents who invade the streets believing that the quarantine is nearing completion. This Saturday, the mayor signed a statement blaming Horacio Rodríguez Larreta for the increase in those infected in his Party.
Kicillof himself pays special attention to the Matanza, both for its more than 2,000,000 inhabitants and for its structural poverty . In the Province they define the largest municipality in the country as "a wick that is always about to catch fire."
The people of Matanzas, like the rest of the residents of the AMBA, were asked "one last effort" to return to phase 1. And if the departure for a more flexible stage is announced, many stress that it will be difficult for circulation to not multiply n in the main Partido del Conurbano, which in itself many emphasize that the running of the bulls is not being carried out too much.
"An opening of the quarantine, from which it was later necessary to back down due to the harsh consequences, caused the infections to spread along the cordon of the Conurbano that borders the city. In this way we see how the parties most affected by growth of the contagions are the borders with the General Paz avenue ", says the text distributed by Espinoza.
La Matanza, by Fernando Espinoza, is one of the most critical points for the Province with a view to Post 17.
What does it mean to bend the curve to define that the effort to return to phase 1 was successful? Specifically, how much should the number of people infected in the Conurbano rise so that the province's health authorities argue that a more flexible quarantine can be returned?
No GBA chief knows the answer well. "Knowing when it is really catching up is also quite debatable. And if the trend is not very marked, the data can be manipulated to justify the decision to open as well as to keep us closed," acknowledges one of the mayors concerned about the occupation number of hospital beds in your district.
Another community chief agrees and adds: "In Greater Buenos Aires, the average growth in the number of infected since we entered phase 1 again exceeded 50% , with municipalities reaching 80%. If the week that the number of infected continues to rise another 20%, does it mean that the curve has widened? In the Province, which apparently is under great pressure to make the closure more flexible, they will say yes. But in that case we would be opening with an absolute number of infected people, which would of around 100% more, that is to say double the number of infected compared to July 1 ".
Such is the bewilderment that in recent days the Buenos Aires Vice Minister of Health, Nicolás Kreplak, was heard to assure that the return to strict quarantine had been a success since the curve was being hammered. But a few hours later, his spokesman and Chief Adviser, Enio García, detailed a] more conservative epidemiological situation, noting that the fall in circulation of the residents "was not enough" : "You have to wait at least ten days to see if phase change really worked. We argued that a cut was necessary and to decrease the circulation of people and we see that it fell between 6 and 8% and it would seem that it was not enough, but it will have to be seen if it is a great blow even from the previous weeks or if it was not enough to curb the number of infections, "he said.
But beyond being in favor or against moving to another new stage of confinement, all the GBA leaders agree on one thing: what Horacio Rodríguez Larreta decides in the City of Buenos Aires cannot be ignored and forces them to do the same. "We have no room to differentiate ourselves, both with the annoyance of the merchants to return to work and the neighbors themselves who need a little oxygenation," acknowledges a mayor of the North zone.
"We trust the responsibility of our neighbors. We even recommend that they go for a walk around the block accompanied by their children. With strict protocol and respect for social distance, we are committed to passing a phase where local businesses and some industries they can work again, "said Gustavo Posse of San Isidro.
"In our case we propose to be cautious and if there is not a significant decrease in the rate of infections, it would be more, the best would be to endure one more week in phase 1. We understand the anguish and we are attending and collaborating all day with both our neighbors and with the merchants, but when we get to the 17th, maybe a little push to flatten as much as possible ", said Julio Zamora, from Tigre
"There are not too many laps, in most places this quarantine is not complied with or is little respected. While he spoke to you, there is a Province bank in front with a two-block queue and I also see a long line to enter a super Chinese. We have to go back to phase 3, which in fact people are leaving because they can't take it anymore, "says Gastón Granados, from Ezeiza.
The mayors highlight this cascading effect that any decision of Larreta causes in the rest of the AMBA, when they analyze the "almost pathological" position that they see in Kicillof and his officials of the Ministry of Health, like Gollán and Kreplak, in comparing themselves with La Capital. "The last video calls we had with the Governor, he spent half an hour talking about the City of Buenos Aires. Even in front of PRO mayors. We all feel uncomfortable. That's when Kicillof, probably without realizing it, transmits insecurity and a certain weakness. And a irrepressible annoyance to depend on Larreta to face the pandemic. It should not be like that but it is what happens, "reflects a head of the southern PJ.
MR.