Polish conservative President Andrzej Duda edged ahead of pro-European liberal mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski in the second round of Sunday's presidential election, according to a poll after the polls were refined overnight. Duda collected 51% of the votes in front of Trzaskowski (49%), according to the third and last poll of the Ipsos institute, whose estimated margin of error is one percentage point. The first poll at the end of the polls gave a less significant difference, at the end of an election contested with knives drawn, which had a very high participation rate for Poland, of 67.9%. The outgoing president is supported by the conservative nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS, in power), while the mayor of Warsaw represents the main centrist opposition party Civic Platform (PO), which notably promises to restore ties with strained Brussels since PiS came to power in 2015.
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“Anything can still happen. It is only tomorrow afternoon that we will really know who won: the difference is just 0.8 percentage points (in the first poll, note). It is within the margin of error, which is plus or minus 2 percentage points , ” says Ireneusz Krzeminski, political scientist at the University of Warsaw. For Stanislaw Mocek, president of the Collegium Civitas University in Warsaw, it is the votes of Poles living abroad who can make the decision. "This represents some 500,000 votes, and more than 70% of Poles voting abroad are in favor of Trzaskowski," he judges.
The outcome of the second round is decisive for the future of the PiS government, which its detractors accuse of reversing the democratic freedoms acquired three decades ago with the fall of communism. "It is a Poland divided in two which comes out of these elections, with a not very rosy future because it will be difficult to calm the situation and to renew the links between the two camps" , explains the political scientist Kazimierz Kik of the University from Kielce, in the south of Poland. "Poland is waking up to a sad battlefield with the two sides defeated, because no one can claim victory," he added. The vote was due to take place in May but had to be postponed due to the pandemic caused by the new coronavirus. In the first round, on June 28, Andrzej Duda came first with 43.5% of the vote and Rafal Trzaskowski second with 30.4%.
These elections are a confrontation of two visions of Poland, between white and red and the rainbow.
Zbigniew Ziobro, Polish Minister of JusticeAndrzej Duda, who promised to defend the popular social assistance put in place by the PiS, benefited from the firm support of farmers, workers, unemployed and retired people, while Rafal Trzaskowski tried to gather a much more disparate electorate. The outgoing president waged a polarizing campaign, notably attacking the rights of LGBT people and rejecting the idea of compensation for Jewish property stolen by the Nazis and under the communist regime. "These elections are a confrontation of two visions of Poland, between white and red and the rainbow , " Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro summed up on Friday, referring to the Polish national flag and the symbol. used by the LGBT community.
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Rafal Trzaskowski, for his part, is in favor of civil partnerships, including between people of the same sex. His decision to sign a declaration of support for LGBT people has prompted many regions in the rural east and the most conservative in the country to proclaim themselves "LGBT free areas" . He also promised to backtrack on controversial justice reforms that have brought criticism from Poland to Poland.
Wojciech, a 59-year-old construction worker, left a polling station, said he voted for Duda because of his close ties to US President Donald Trump, "which means we can count on the states -Unite to defend us ” . Other voters chose Rafal Trzaskowski with the hope of a return to better relations with the European Union. "It is important for us to have good cooperation with our European partners" , explained the retired Danuta Lutecka, also hoping that a change of president would lead to "less hatred and divisions" between Poles.
