Ignacio Zuleta
07/12/2020 - 19:57
- Clarín.com
- Politics
Smoke signals: the opposition sets conditions
Sergio Massa is not the owner of the casino, but he has the sabot at this time. He paid the first pledge on Sunday afternoon for Alberto Fernández to meet, remote, not real, with the legislative heads of the opposition. He promised to take the oath this Tuesday to Miguel Pichetto as auditor of the Nation. He will represent Together for Change, Macri branch. If he complies, the former senator will debut on Wednesday in the session of the college of auditors that Jesús Rodríguez has mentioned. A hot agenda will be discussed : if the expenses of the current government are reviewed this year, in particular those made by Social Development to attend to the poor, and those of the Executive, protected in superpowers by DNU. That payment on account of Massa, accompanied the invitation so that on Monday afternoon the deputies have a zoom with the President, and on Thursday with the senators.
The invitation comes with a score difficult to reject:
• Quarantine and post-quarantine reconstruction.
• Budget expansion to sustain income.
• Moratorium.
• Equating debt under local law to New York law.
The Together for Change opposition ended the day with a debate on the conditions to attend : for example, having VIP treatment and not going along with other minority blocks. Also give evidence of the cessation of hostilities by Olivos towards them. They accept that the dialogue with the ruling party should focus on the representatives of Congress and those with executive functions. That is, the governors. They admit that the Government does not want to know anything with party leaders like Alfredo Cornejo or Patricia Bullrich, nor undisputed leaders such as Mauricio Macri. For them, the right of admission runs as in bowling alleys, which discriminate by appearance, by what they think they are, and not by what they do. INADI meat.
This was broken down into a zoom on Friday afternoon , which was not peaceful. So they swore to keep it a secret, and not give the government a letter to grind them further. Macri participated in that council - the third since he left office - of party leaders, authorities in Congress and leaders such as Pichetto or María Eugenia Vidal. There was not much time, because there were more than ten summoned and it lasted an hour and a half. Most of those present admitted that with the seriousness of the agenda - plague and economy - there is no room to refuse to attend a meeting with the Government, which was to be on Thursday but was to be delayed a few hours after Monday. .
One sector, identified with the Coalition, is more reluctant to attend due to a lack of political conditions, but it dominated the idea that the public can punish them if they are unsupportive with a progressive agenda. We must defend our people, Macri insists, but if they call ... Horacio Rodríguez Larreta asks for agreement to live with Alberto and Axel Kicillof; the legislators - Mario Negri, Luis Naidenoff, Humberto Schiavoni - support the tax moratorium, with corrections to the pardon of indicted businessmen for diverting taxes; the PRO is closer to sitting because it trusts more, for generational affection, in Massa, caller to the appointment, which is also reviewed in Olivos. Naidenoff, who serves in the Senate, conveyed the indifference to that commitment by José Mayans, head of the Everyone's Front block. A subject for arbitration of forces, because the man from Formos expresses Cristina better than any of the other members of the official trident.
They launch another flowery war with piquetero support
Those conditions may end up being material of a document in these hours, of a state as gaseous as the smoke signals sent by the ruling party and the opposition. They come from suffering a barrage of disqualifications, from the treatment of "scoundrels" by the document on Fabián Gutiérrez to the tweet by Alberto's spokesman, who speaks for him as every spokesperson. The scribes of the PRO, who prepare the letter for a summit this Monday to launch a strategic plan, contribute to the document . Also, a team that breaks up the economic projects that the government wants, and that are made up of deputies Luciano Laspina, Luis Pastori, Jimena Latorre, Laura Oliveto, Javier Campos. Pichetto also has a dialogue with another arch, such as the one that brought him together for a very private zoom Orlando Ferreres, in which stars such as Domingo Cavallo, Horacio Liendo, Santiago Montoya and some others participated. They know that, without opposition, the Government cannot open sessions in Deputies, and that Cristina has a lead on the wing if she does not break the blockade with 2/3 of the votes in the Senate.
For this week the shipment of the tax law to the delicious is promised, by which the Government puts all the meat in the pot. Not because it will raise a lot - it will be little, it will be late, and it will surely be overwhelmed by constitutional reproaches - but because it is an artillery piece for the dialectical fight in and out. To move forward, the text that is circulating puts the funds for the expropriation of villas as a destination for the funds, to deliver the lots to their occupants. This is a masterpiece of Creole accordism, which closed in late 2018 the Macri government with the organizations of the Cayenne trident that Pope Francis inspires. He was assured of the almost unanimous vote of Congress, although with resistance from Peronism, which Juan Grabois had to overcome in dialogues with Cristina. That revolutionary law was part of an understanding that codified peace on the streets of Buenos Aires for the benefit of all.
The Government understands that including the Vatican bill in the law ensures better luck in Congress. After all, the financing of a law that everyone voted for and that was presented by Negri, Elisa Carrió and Nicolás Massot is going to be discussed . If this is not state policy, what is? But as with most initiatives in a country with weak governments, music matters more than lyrics. It is not new in Christianity to promote projects that come from its adversaries, such as the nationalization of pensions, oil and airplanes - all flags of radicalism in the 1990s against privatizing Peronism - or the media law, imagined by Gustavo López for Fernando de la Rúa, for whom Comfer administered when he was radical. It is about building muscle and defeating the adversary , a way of protecting the interest of the party, at the sacrifice of the public interest.
Be careful: the one who negotiates is a traitor
The vertigo of their evolutions -in the sense that Pokémon characters do, a game in which the characters reappear in successive reincarnations and physiognomies- makes Cristina's partners forget one of the laws of Christianity (which she actually wrote down in Néstor stone): in this space the one who negotiates is a traitor. The arrangements are made by the cupola, alone and without explaining to anyone. What did you speak? Nestor challenged his restrained ministers. I already spoke before, run. Hoarding the administration of intransigence is one of the central tools of the weak politician. Alberto must also know it , but he slipped when treating him as "friend" to Larreta in the act of July 9. Alicia Castro, who walks the corresponding corridors, crossed it: "Friend, she called you, because it is the name given to brothers in arms, business and opinion," wrote Bolívar to San Martin. @horaciorlarreta, an ally of Macri, who sells public land for his own benefit, who has thousands of citizens abandoning #NoEsNuestroAmigo ", tweeted the unborn ambassador to Russia -has placet, not yet agree-.
There is something worse than hearing about criticism from the newspapers, and that is that they tweet you from behind . The personal handling of the covenants is one of the pincers of the Christian method. The other is to empower the repentant, those who left in search of another life and had to return with the tail between their legs, the platoon of the broken. Alberto, Massa, Mayans, Parrilli are the best matter to show terror to dissent among their own. Those who know this method have been careful to leave, like Scioli, or if they have left there is no return, like Pichetto. There are hardly two better connoisseurs of those penguin tricks . This explains why they have come, one inside, one outside, further than the others in their political career.
Trump discovered the vaccine against the lawfare: the pardon
Alberto's weaknesses force him into the silence of unfaithful husbands , who can never tell the truth. In politics this means paying costs, which, in this trade, are sometimes an investment to satisfy their own clientele. In the game of the bold there are strident examples. Donald Trump, who is hard to imagine as a role model, affirms his power by showing who he is, and found the vaccine against "lawfare": pardon. His narrative is fueled by gestures that flatter his voters, such as the pardon he signed on Friday for his adviser and mentor Roger Stone, who was due to enter prison this week, convicted of lying in the investigation of the Russian plot. There are parallel lines with Alberto's gestures .
According to Trump, and wrote in a statement, Stone has been "a victim of Russia's deception, which the left and its media allies perpetuated for years, in an attempt to undermine the Trump presidency." This, if it is not lawfare, what is it? Cristina would ask. Trump's explanation adds: "Prosecutors also strove to make his arrest public and shameful." (Statement from the Press Secretary Regarding Executive Grant of Clemency for Roger Stone, Jr.). Like me, Aimée (Boudou) would say. Trump knows that he pays a cost, but he invests in shielding the support of his own, four months after the elections in which he seeks to repeat his mandate. He does not waste an instant listening to his opposition contractors. He knows that nothing he does will make them. As Alberto knows that nothing he does will satisfy 40.28% of voters.
Trump is encouraged to tell the truth to his public and does not play double. Alberto has grown tired of saying that Cristina has been the victim, like other former officials, of political persecution. He has not been able to prove it , but he speaks of "lawfare" when asked. You must use the same brand of pens as Trump. He doesn't use it like he does for some reason: perhaps he fears rejection by the opposition, something that shouldn't worry him because he isn't and never will be. Imagine another reason is to delve into the unspeakable, as you prefer to have Cristina's judicial fragility as a pilot, and give him gas when it can be convenient to get him out of the game. Unspeakable. Of course, he does not need a leap of credibility, like Trump, to bet on the prize that Peronism would give him if he issued a pardon that closed causes. His opponents would criticize him for such a measure, but they are a minority against those who would celebrate him. Here must Alberto another explanation, another one . The risk is that the demands for truth and consistency amass so many questions about their stunning reasons, as Cristina liked to say when he was a boy. Incidentally, he is not Trump. Noticeable.
Costs? Gerald Ford pardoned Richard Nixon in 1974, after the resignation. That gesture allowed him to govern without the shadow of a process his predecessor. It was already half painted. He had arrived at the vice-presidency without being elected by popular vote but as a deputy. Nixon had no vice due to the resignation of Spiro Agnew and Ford came to office as the character Francis "Frank" Underwood of House of Cards. He was unable to reelect in 1976 against Jimmy Carter, but ended the Vietnam War. Menem pardoned the military and although he had criticism, he was able to govern for nine more years, including a reelection. They are proof that there are costs to pay that are an investment . In these cases, remove a dazzling shadow from above.
First law in force: know your client
In politics, the anti-laundering slogan of the banks is worth: KYC ("know your customer"). This is a bold office , in which mistake is the norm. That law of error expands with the humanization of the human being as "Zoon Politikón" (Aristotle) in the "Zoom" that idiotizes (idiot, from the idiot Greek, "private", who deals only with his personal things). In a semiology exercise, Senator José Mayans from Formosa, who is an electromechanical technician (graduated from EPET 1 in Formosa), clarifies that participation in his chamber sessions is remote, “not virtual,” he said in the Foreign Relations Commission of the Wednesday- because it means out of reality ”.
Why does a majority president not take bold attitudes, which would be criticized by a minority that will never vote for him? In 2008 he explained the reasons for his fight with Cristina de Kirchner. You still owe the reasons for your reconciliation . Unless you understand that the public rewards liveliness over coherence. This lack weakens him to take actions that would give more strength to his decisions. Harry Truman said that power was the ability to get people to do what they don't want to do , for example, pay taxes. Alberto has to lead society in times of a cosmic plague, overcome the resistance of the market to believe in a sustainable program and show his own and strangers that he has the pen of power, and that he does not depend on his partners in the three-phase cast that integrates with Cristina and Massa. In that fight, he first examines Peronism, whose governors make up the board that allowed him to get to where he is, on the condition that neither he nor Massa had all the power. That group is the one that achieved last December 48.24% of the votes. Unappealable, so there is no point in wasting an instant fighting with the other 40.28% who supported Macri. It will not move it from its place. If you neglect it, the only thing you are going to do is reinforce them.
You also don't have to waste your strength on that, as long as you keep the support of the polls. And it will continue to have it, except that Peronism, a force that is defined as everything that is divided by two, recreates the schism that has accompanied it since the decline of its founder. That division is between the Peronism of Buenos Aires and that of the interior. Menem / Cafiero, Duhalde / Menem, Kirchner / Duhalde, etc. The rest is decorative from every moment . For that not to happen to him, Alberto has to overcome the weakness of the balkanization of power in the ruling party. It is not an ideological fight, as the naive believe. It is a bid for power itself among three - Alberto, Massa, Cristina - who are not known about the program, although their ambitions and methods are . And that above are vicars of the power of a larger group, the Peronism that the governors arbitrate, who do have a program. They negotiated it with Kirchner, with Macri and are now waiting for Alberto. A center Peronism, market capitalist, with a sustainable economy and oxygen to stay in power. Neither plays anything else, nor does it look at the group from Puebla, Caracas, Venezuela, stereotypes created for a market like that of the Capital, which does not vote for Peronism.
Illusions: believing that the public changes the vote
The insults to Macri that leave the Government are not directed at the opposition public of Cambiemos, but at their own, with the intention of shielding the reasons for their accession . If the public changed, a leader of Peronism could imagine that his voters would grow because of, for example, the numbers of last December's elections. You could dream of close to 100% membership. An illusion that can only be sustained by a pampa strategy consultant, who wants to take a coin from his client. Contrary sensu, the politician who bets on the same number on all plays usually maintains the loyalty of his followers. The one who rings on each spinning ball, usually loses it. It's point, not banking. And in politics you have to try to be a bank, never period. This makes more idle the messages against flag bearers and pots, which exhaust the little powder that a weak government usually has to confront with a public that has neither voted nor will vote. And less if they punish him with complaints of street subversion . It is only explained in the will to show their own that the fight continues.
One of the most recurring fantasies of politics is to believe that the public changes its ideas or positions. In a society with a stable system, like that of Argentina, voters hold the same agenda in the longue durée . In any case, they regulate the dial according to the response of the leadership in each turn. In voluntary voting democracies, on the other hand, the results are determined by the collective behavior of voting pockets that manifest participating or not participating. Our democracy is sustained by one of the few systems that work well, which is the electoral system - 106 years of the Sáenz Peña Law - and where the two great political families of Argentina (Peronism and radicalism) alternate, sometimes with different characterizations . Voters may feel disappointed, but the agenda is the same. This means that messages that are intended to persuade, convince, or change people's heads are doomed to failure. When a leader complains about the actions of his adversary, he seeks to disqualify him from the troops themselves, but his darts are harmless to the opponent's followers.
