A second wave of new coronavirus this winter could kill up to 120,000 people in UK hospitals in a "reasonable worst-case scenario" without adequate preparation, according to a study by the Academy of Medical Sciences published on Tuesday. "This is not a prediction, it is a possibility," said Professor Stephen Holgate, who directed the production of this report by thirty-seven experts, commissioned by the government of Boris Johnson, in a press release. The report warns that "intense preparation" is needed now to reduce the risk that the public health service, the NHS, will be submerged during the winter.
Some research suggests that the new coronavirus - which has killed nearly 45,000 people in the UK, the hardest hit country in Europe - will spread more during the cold season. While the report points out that there is a "high degree of uncertainty" about the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic, a "reasonable worst-case scenario" , which should be prepared for, expects an increase in the rate virus reproduction at 1.7 from September. This figure, which corresponds to the average number of people who are infected with a virus carrier, is currently between 0.7 and 0.9 in the country.
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The models established on the basis of such a scenario evoke a peak in deaths and hospital admissions in January and February 2021 "similar or worse" than the first wave of spring and which would coincide with the peak of activity for the system hospital with seasonal illnesses. The number of hospital-related Covid-19 deaths between September 2020 and June 2021 could reach 119,900. However, this estimate does not take into account the actions of the government to reduce the rate of transmission, nor the use of dexamethasone, steroid which makes it possible to reduce the mortality rate in seriously ill patients, temper the authors.
They recommend, among other things, implementing an information campaign for the public as well as advice intended in particular for frail people, to increase the capacity of tests and to protect against the most serious effects of the flu by vaccinating people at risk and health personnel.
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