World Population Will Probably Decline After 50 Years

The population of sub-Saharan African countries, such as Nigeria, could triple by 2100, according to experts.

(CNN) - The world population is likely to peak at 9.7 billion in 2064 and then decline to around 8.8 billion by the end of the century, as women have better access to education and contraception, according to a new study.

By the year 2100, 183 out of 195 countries will not have the fertility rates required to maintain the current population, with 2.1 births projected per woman, said researchers from the Institute of Health Assessment and Metrics of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Washington.

Some 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain, will see their populations shrink by more than 50%, the researchers said.

However, the population of sub-Saharan Africa could triple, allowing just under half of the world's population to be African by the end of the century.

The modeling study, published Tuesday in The Lancet, also predicts a dramatic decline in working-age populations in countries such as India and China, hurting economic growth and could have negative implications for workforces and aid systems. social, the researchers said.

But as fertility declines, the researchers note that immigration could offset the decline in population, particularly in countries with low fertility, such as the United States, Australia, and Canada.

"The world, since the 1960s, has focused on the so-called population explosion," Dr. Christopher Murray, who led the research, told CNN. "Suddenly, we are now seeing this kind of turning point where it is very clear that we are rapidly moving from the problem of having too many people to having too few."

Population reduction

Using data from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study, the researchers predicted that the fastest-reducing populations will be found in Asia and eastern and central Europe.

The authors of the report project that Japan's population will decrease from around 128 million people in 2017 to 60 million in 2100, Thailand will see a reduction from 71 to 35 million, Spain from 46 to 23 million, Italy from 61 to 31 million, Portugal from 11 to 5 million and South Korea from 53 to 27 million.

34 other countries, including China, are also forecast to see a population decline of up to 50%.

Murray said that not only will the population shrink, but society will generally be older, which would have a substantial impact on economic growth.

"There are more people who need to receive government benefits, be it social security or health insurance, and fewer people who pay taxes," he explained.

The researchers project that the population of sub-Saharan Africa could triple over the course of the century, from approximately 1.030 million in 2017 to 3.070 million in 2100.

The North Africa and Middle East region is the only other that is projected to have a larger population in 2,100 than in 2017, with a forecast of 978 million compared to 600 million.

“Because fertility will remain high longer, the relative proportion of the world population that is African will increase dramatically. We will reach the point towards the end of the century when just under half of the world's population will be African, following these trajectories, "Murray told CNN.

More than 80 years old than under 5

The study also predicts major changes in the global age structure as fertility declines and life expectancy increases, with an estimated 2.37 million people over the age of 65 worldwide in the year 2100, compared to 1,700. millions under 20 years of age.

The global number of people over the age of 80 could be multiplied by six, from 141 million to 866 million. Meanwhile, the number of children under the age of 5 is forecast to decrease by more than 40%, from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100.

The researchers said that these "dramatic declines" in working-age populations in countries like India and China will hamper economic growth and lead to changes in world powers.

“It is already beginning, it is something that is not in the distant future. The number of working-age adults in China has already started to decline, "Murray told CNN.

"The profound decline in working-age adults that will occur in a place like China means that in the long term they will not be able to maintain economic growth at the current rate," Murray said.

The report's authors say the new forecasts highlight the "huge challenges" that a shrinking workforce will pose to economic growth and the high burden that an aging population will pose to health and social support systems.

The role of immigration

The authors suggest that the population decline could be offset by immigration and that countries with liberal immigration policies will be better able to maintain population size and support economic growth, even when fertility declines.

"If more people die compared to those who are born, the population will decline. And the only way to counter that is with migration, "said Murray.

Researchers suggest population decline could be offset by immigration, predicting that countries with low fertility, including the US, Australia, and Canada, will keep working-age populations with immigration as fertility declines .

While the report's authors note that fewer people would have "positive implications for the environment, climate change and food production," an aging population may present its challenges.

If it were just the number of people and not all of these other effects, it could be a good argument to say that it could be a good thing for the planet, Murray said.

"The problem is that the inverted age pyramid is a real problem about how societies are organized and how economies work, how taxes are paid," he said. "What we really need to discover is how to transition from the state we are in now," he said.

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