Pablo Novillo
07/24/2020 - 7:01
- Clarín.com
- Cities
The number of asymptomatic people is, perhaps, the great mystery of the coronavirus worldwide. First, the international consensus was that for each confirmed case there were two others that went unnoticed. But the pandemic was advancing, and the numbers would already be others. In the Buenos Aires Government they work with the hypothesis that there would be 9 or 10 more cases than those registered , in people who had very mild symptoms or who, directly, did not even find out that they had the virus. If confirmed, the calculation is that by the end of August 30% of Buenos Aires residents could have been infected. For this reason, the estimate is that the aforementioned "herd immunity" is already beginning to be produced in the City. And so the time might be coming when the curve would finally start to descend.
This was explained by a Buenos Aires government source to Clarín : "We are in the order of the 50,000 cases confirmed by PCR, but we estimate that for each one documented there could be as many as 10 more, for the mild and asymptomatic. If they were 500,000, it would mean that almost 17% of the population would have already been infected. There are studies that indicate that with 12% to 20% of infections, community immunity is already beginning to give . "
The same official, who follows the evolution of the pandemic in the City day by day, added: "If the current infection rate is maintained, by the end of August there could be 30% of those infected ."
The estimate is based, above all, on what happened in Villa 31. Days ago, the Buenos Aires Government presented a report on a serological study carried out on 873 people. The result was striking: 53% had antibodies, which means that the virus had been recognized and attacked by their immune system . Thus, the actual number of infected in the neighborhood was not close to 3,000 confirmed by the swabs of the DetectAR operation, but more than 26,500, out of a total population of about 45,000 people.
This is why the City has just taken another step on the epidemiological path. On Wednesday, he began a survey of 2,000 residents of different neighborhoods, who he plans to test for antibodies in two weeks.
Why is it important to know these figures? According to the WHO, "herd" immunity is only achieved from 60% of infections. But in the Buenos Aires Government they cite cases of cities that, once they reached 20%, began to stabilize their curves .
In addition, knowing more precisely the actual number of those infected would allow a more accurate assessment of the mortality rate: today it is 2%, with just over 1,000 deaths. But if the cases were 10 times more, that mortality would drop to 0.2%, a much less distressing figure.
While the serological study is being carried out, the eye is placed on the level of contagiousness, the already famous "R" index. Today, it is at 1.04. But it is expected that in two to three weeks it will finally drop below 1 . That would mean that the contagion trend would go down.
Of course, at the same time, progress will be made in releasing the quarantine, and with more people circulating, it is expected that there will be more infections. That is why, in the Buenos Aires Government they insist so much that the people are responsible and take care of themselves. And hold the badly wounded patience , whose curve is definitely falling.
PN
