Out of weakness and distress, and from a low point he had never known before, Hizbullah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah was pushed to gamble again. Just as in the summer of 2006, he now threatens to carry out a terrorist attack against Israel in response to killing one of his men in Syria. Nasrallah himself was forced to pay a heavy price: his personal freedom. The man is locked in a bunker and does not see the light of day, and since Qassem Suleimani was killed in January this year, he also does not know in the morning if it will be his last day.

But Nasrallah is bound by his equations, and out of a sense of no choice or apprehension lest Israel interpret his moves as an expression of weakness - he feels obligated to respond and is willing to be dragged into a frontal confrontation with her. He hopes, of course, to keep the flames With a minimum of casualties to Israel, which will allow it to contain the incident - as it did in the past.

Precisely because of this, it is appropriate for Israel not to play into Nasrallah's hands, but to try to break the equations he is trying to dictate to her, and to put in front of him a clear red line that cannot be crossed.

In the Second Lebanon War, Israel was led by a failed political leadership, which failed to express the enormous advantage of the IDF, and instead of defeating Hezbollah, was unnecessarily dragged into a 33-day war of attrition.

Nevertheless, the results of the war sent a determined message to Hezbollah You will not allow him to further violate its sovereignty and continue to attack it from Lebanon.The calm that prevailed along the border with Lebanon was therefore the important achievement of the war, and the fact is that Hezbollah, battered and deterred, recognized that maintaining peace was no less, In

recent years, Israel has allowed Nasrallah to return to his game of equations and carry out attacks against its forces. First in the Shebaa Farms area, and in September last year, anti-tank fire from Lebanese territory into Israel.

Israel is much more calculated and cautious than Nasrallah, and more than once it behaves like a "responsible adult" and prefers to contain its attacks and put them on the agenda. But Israel should raise the price of Nasrallah's bet, and thus probably expose his bluff - the fear for his life and the fear of confrontation and deterioration, the price of which he cannot and does not want to pay. 

More importantly, it is appropriate for Israel to return to the iron rule that guides it with complete success vis-à-vis Syria, and that is that the violation of Israel's sovereignty and harm to its territory and soldiers are a red line that will not be crossed in silence.

Thus, instead of firing a response at idle targets in Lebanese territory, and reporting with loud applause that the sources of the fire have been set on fire, Israel must pay a price for violating its sovereignty, both from Hezbollah and the Lebanese government that sponsors it. Only in this way will it be possible to break the equations that Nasrallah seeks to dictate to Israel, set new rules of the game and ensure that calm along the northern border is maintained. Otherwise, the next attack is only a matter of time.