The modern history of U.S. election campaigns has already seen candidates who led big in the summer - and lost in the fall • And yet, Trump faces a not-so-simple challenge • Commentary

It is very likely that when President Trump gets up in the morning, the first thing he asks his advisers is "What's the situation in Florida?". Florida has been a state for decades where all known rivalries in the U.S. between right and left, between ethnic and white minorities, between adults and young people, and between urban and rural, are draining.

Reuters

As befits its status, it is the Holy Grail and is not in the pocket of any party, and it may decide in elections (as it did in 2000). In recent days, Joe Biden - the former vice president, and who will be nominated in a month as the Democratic presidential candidate - has begun to open up a gap with Trump in Florida polls. 

A CNN poll yesterday showed a 5-point lead in favor of Biden in the country; Another survey by the Quinnipiac Institute put Biden 13 (!) Points above Trump. In other key countries as well, including those Trump won in 2016, Biden leads. 

The polls themselves say nothing about the November 3 result, but they do show that there is a key segment in the electorate that can be called "Trump disappointed" or "curious Biden" who are not keen to vote for any party at the moment. It is difficult to estimate its true size on Election Day. In fact, in almost every election campaign, the non-ruling party gains momentum in the summer because of the same population segment. 

In 1988, the Democratic presidential candidate, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, led by a huge margin in polls on then-Vice President George W. Bush in the summer, but lost to him in the fall. In the summer of 1992, a candidate who emerged from nowhere, businessman Ross Pro, defeated incumbent President George W. Bush and his Democratic rival Bill Clinton in the polls. But on Election Day Peru failed to win in even one country.  

Trump understands that voters are sending him a message: We want you to work hard for your second term. What is particularly troubling for Trump is his situation in the coalition of voters that gave him the victory: the middle-class people in the suburbs, the independents, and the whites from the blue-collar class. 

The latest AP poll showed that 80 percent of Americans believe that "America is not moving in the right direction." This is the highest figure since Trump took office. In some ways, it could be said that this is the most significant political crossroads facing the 45th president, because Biden managed to steal the spotlight for the first time. 

To change trend, Trump decided to put on a state-of-the-art look and bring back the daily press conferences and even wear a mask as a personal example. At the same time, he hopes to exhaust the pool of voters in his "base" and emphasizes that he is the "sheriff of America" ​​in the face of violent demonstrations. But he knows he must also give hope, as in 2016. This time the American people have only one wish: to return to the pre-Corona routine. Now Trump needs to decide and fast: how to reinvent himself before it's too late.