Director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris), Pascal Boniface believes that with the epidemic the “feeling of superiority” of Westerners “has taken a hit”. The researcher has just released “Geopolitics of Covid-19” published by Eyrolles (190 p., 13.90 euros).
Has the pandemic been a game-changer on the world stage?
PASCAL BONIFACE. The major trends in geopolitics already existed before. But the Covid-19 has been both an accelerator and an intensifier of these impulses. The rise of China, the Sino-American conflict, the crisis of multilateralism, the procrastination of Europe, all of this became evident with the health crisis. The West, which thought epidemics were for others, has been doubly the epicenter of Covid-19: in Europe and America. Our sense of superiority has taken a hit.
Who is doing the best? China ?
Yes, she comes out a winner because, if she suffered the pandemic first, she contained it fairly quickly. Admittedly, its statistics in terms of deaths per capita are not very reliable, nevertheless its record is less heavy than others. Above all, she wins on her big subject, the duel with the United States. Especially since Trump's America loses on two points. The internal management of the crisis, with an impressive death toll, and this drama continues. And at the international level, while China has been very offensive and even aggressive, the United States has deserted the world stage. Beijing has jumped to its deserted positions, especially at the WHO. This is the first serious global strategic crisis since 1945 in which America is not playing the leading role, it is a historic turning point.
But the Chinese regime is castigated for its action against the Uyghurs or in Hong Kong, does that not wipe out this gain?
This repression further degrades the image of China in Western countries, where it was already not famous. Elsewhere, it does not have the same effect. Beijing has even obtained the support of a majority of countries on the UN Human Rights Council, including Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt. But, in terms of public opinion, the cost is real, large and lasting.
How does this stronger position of China translate?
It is continuing its economic catch-up with the United States. The Covid-19 crisis has not stopped this trend. In 2001, when it joined the WTO, its GDP was 10% of that of the US. Now it's 65%. By comparison, when the USSR was at its peak during the Cold War, it never exceeded 40% of US GDP.
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Is it a match? A new cold war?
China will not overtake the United States in the years to come, but the movement seems irreversible and it is causing anguish and hostility on the American side. What is at stake is world supremacy. But America denies any Chinese legitimacy to obtain it. Every American under the age of 80 has always lived as a citizen of the First Power. In addition, there is still this belief in American exceptionalism, its messianic side. The Sino-American relationship is the major topic of the decade.
What role can Europe play?
The United States asks us to choose. But Europe must define its own path, distinct from both the Americans and the Chinese. We don't have to be Washington's lieutenants.
She is doing it ?
She is hesitating. The British gave in on 5G (Editor's note: banning Huawei) , but France and Germany have different positions on global warming on Iran from those of the United States. On the international scene, between American desertion - or its assumed unilateralism - and Chinese aggressiveness, Europe can offer an alternative, real multilateralism.
And Africa?
The youth of its population, the fact that it is used to epidemics, perhaps helped it to better resist the coronavirus. But it risks suffering more than the others from the economic crisis. Europe is playing the game rather well, with a 15 billion euro aid plan for Africa, by pleading for the cancellation of the debt ... This prevents African countries from falling only into the arms of the Chinese, to the more interested gait.
Will the WHO controversy leave traces?
The WHO may have delayed, but it reacted, otherwise the pandemic would have been even more serious. The fact that Bill Gates came to compensate with the 300 million dollars of his foundation, replacing Trump's decision to withdraw (the American contribution to the WHO is around 400 million annually), moreover shows that the he organization has supporters other than China.