Hezbollah's negligent action • The organization's claim that the incident did not take place at all • The IDF Spokesman's mysterious response • And the visit of the US Chief of Staff - who may or may not have been here recently on the eve of Suleimani's assassination • The IDF may be pleased with the result From being finished • Interpretation
"Every action has the potential to escalate"
Photo:
AFP, Tzachi Miriam
The tactical event today (Monday) in the Har Dov sector ended in peace, but the strategic campaign that Israel is waging against the Shiite radical axis is far from over - and it may challenge us again in the coming days.
An IDF spokesman, Brigadier General Hedi Zilberman, gave a hint to this today, in a briefing to reporters at the end of the event on Mount Dov, he spoke explicitly about "tense days" that are expected on the northern border. Zilberman was asked how his remarks reconcile with the fact that the incident was over, and replied, "I stand by my words."
Photo: GPO
The speaker's remarks may indicate another event that is not a direct continuation of today's incident on Mount Dov, although the open account with Hezbollah has not yet been closed. After several hours in which the organization seemed to be content with the local event on Mount Dov as proof that it stands by its principles - to protect Lebanon and protect its people, and in the present case to respond to its active killing last week in Damascus - Hezbollah surprised last night by claiming the incident on Mount Dov did not occur. Leave the account open.
The incident itself was tactically successful for the IDF. The forces were prepared, and responded quickly. The entire sector was also closed within minutes - civilians were taken into homes, soldiers into protected areas and roads were blocked - to make sure it was not a distraction.
• The security incident in the north: The IDF hit a Hezbollah cell that was trying to infiltrate Israel
• Hezbollah has denied thwarting the attack on the border
Hezbollah is trying to break the deterrence equation - but remains deterred by itself
• Netanyahu in a threatening message to Hezbollah: "Nasrallah has made a big mistake in the past - offers him not to repeat it"
The IDF report shows that a squad of three or four terrorists crossed the "blue line" - the international border line; in the Har Dov sector there is no fence separating Lebanese and Israeli territory - and was smuggled back into Lebanese territory without being able to harm IDF forces and even without serving. Contrary to the characteristic of the fighters of the organization. Judging by the nature of the IDF's deployment (and also the presence of Chief of Staff Kochavi in the Northern Command at the time of the incident, and the close coordination with Defense Minister Ganz, himself chief of staff and former Northern Command general), it seems that the IDF accurately anticipated Hezbollah's moves.
As far as Hezbollah is concerned, this seems on the face of it to be an action that the organization carried out almost by pulling out. It makes no sense for him to send a relatively large force, in daylight, to an area covered with observations and on high alert. In similar actions in the past, the organization was careful to gather intelligence and look for vulnerabilities before acting. Sometimes he succeeded, sometimes he missed, but it was difficult to ignore the professionalism that accompanied his actions.
Today, as mentioned, it looks like improvisation. It is possible that Hezbollah was in a hurry to act because of the pressure exerted on him from home, and it is possible that he wanted to close the event quickly, before the Feast of Sacrifice, which will take place this coming Thursday. The very fact that he acted allowed him to continue to uphold the narrative of "Defender of Lebanon." In the past he did so to avoid escalation; The fact that he finally decided to deny his action today leaves him with an immediate debt that he must collect from Israel.
This means that the high alert in the north will continue in the coming days. The IDF hoped that Hezbollah would be satisfied with today's incident - among other things, against the backdrop of the corona plague and the difficult economic situation in Lebanon - and that a wide-ranging escalation could be avoided. Strategically.
And yet, it is doubtful that this was the case. Israel has no reason to be dragged into war because of tactical events at the border. Its main campaign is not to prevent infiltration of the fence, but to prevent the Iranian establishment in Syria, and in the case of Hezbollah - to prevent the organization from intensifying with advanced weapons, with an emphasis on accurate rockets. This project deprives Israel of sleep, and will continue to do so in the future.
Since the beginning of the year, Israel has intensified its attacks in the framework of the war (between the wars). In the absence of evidence that Iran has withdrawn from its offensive plans in the Middle East, it is likely that Israel will continue to insist on these red lines. Attributed to Israel both in the sabotage of the centrifuge facility in Natanz and in the attack on the airport in Damascus.
If Israel is required to go to war, it must do so for the right reasons. To that end, it must form international support (US Chief of Staff Mark Millie paid a quick visit to Israel last week, for unpublished reasons; his previous visit was days before the assassination of Qassem Suleimani), and no less - internal support. The Netanyahu-Gantz duo seemed today As someone who conducts the security campaign with high cohesion and coordination, he should have done the same on other issues, certainly when there is potential for security escalation in the background.
