Ignacio Ortelli
07/28/2020 - 16:23
- Clarín.com
- Politics
"If it continues at this rate, intensive care beds may be collapsed in the province of Buenos Aires in the second half of August." In another context, perhaps not so long ago, the phrase of the Buenos Aires Minister of Health, Daniel Gollan; It would have been a foretaste of an imminent tightening of the quarantine. But, after more than four months of isolation , the scenario is different and, in the run-up to a new announcement by President Alberto Fernández with Governor Axel Kicillof and the head of the Buenos Aires Government, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta; social exhaustion in the face of the measure and the economic crisis take their toll and compel the authorities to take into account a wider range of variables.
For this reason, in addition to health parameters, such as the number of new cases, the occupation of intensive care beds and the "R", the number of people infected by each infected person; in the three districts they watch closely the evolution of the social thermometer . "There is no worse quarantine than the one that is not carried out, " spokesmen from the Nation, Province and City repeat.
In the Province, where Kicillof was always more cautious than Larreta in the City when it came to arranging activities, they also note some wear on the tool . It is not a gesture of solidarity or empathy with the economic needs raised by the head of the Buenos Aires Government, but they verify it in the polls that the government manages and that the health authorities also look at.
While the claim that the health system may collapse in August, as Gollan and his vice-Nicolás Kreplak said publicly, is supported by private projections, the social thermometer is evaluated by different surveys that they commission - and that they receive - in La Plata. One of the last that the governor received raised the alarm: for the first time since the pandemic was unleashed, the residents of Buenos Aires acknowledge that they are more concerned with the situation of the economy than with health . This was indicated by 51 percent of the 1,268 respondents -in the AMBA, by telephone and in person- between July 19 and 21 by the consulting firm Agora. Meanwhile, 43% maintain their coronavirus alarm. In June, the values were exactly the opposite: 43-51.
Despite the continuity of the Emergency Family Income (IFE) and the Work and Production Assistance Program (ATP), the concern for the economy in the third electoral section, where the most populous districts of the Conurbano are grouped, gave a significant jump in the last month , from 42 to 51 percent, which partly explains the alarm of the most powerful Peronist mayors. Meanwhile, in the first section, it was less marked but more sustained over time: 48 percent today, 44% in June, 39% in May. and 33% in April
In the breakdown of these data, the government also took note of another indicator: if in June 73% believed in quarantine, among those who maintained that isolation should be maintained and prioritize health, and those who granted the flexibility of just some activities In July, that universe fell to 64% and went on to increase to 35%, made up of those who maintain that the axis should be set only to start the economy or open most activities. "The number of people supporting the quarantine is still very high," they relativized from the Kicillof Cabinet. And they explain that "it must be taken into account that many people lost their income and still support sanitary measures."
In April, when the number of deaths and infections was kept under control as a result of the rigid quarantine, only 38 percent prioritized economic matters , while today this occurs in six out of ten respondents (59%).
In the government, however, they argue that there is still scope to impose more restrictive measures. Although they may not use that "credit" for next week . The data that would support an eventual measure in a scenario of health collapse arises when people are asked "what should the government prioritize?" Less than a third (29%) maintain that it should be the economy, while six out of ten confirm their support for prioritizing health.
In this sense, the question of the authorities has to do with the return to phase 1 that was ordered on June 30, when there was still a certain sanitary margin and, consequently, it was not fully respected. " The quarantine lasts, after four months, it is a tool of last resort, it has to be taken on time . You cannot trust it and leave it open when you have to close it, but you cannot go ahead and wear it down either," they say from the team of infectious diseases. .
With this menu, Kicillof will receive Rodríguez Larreta this Wednesday in La Plata. The intention to maintain a coordinated scheme of decisions for now prevails for both, who chat almost every day, and also for the President, who speaks periodically with the governor and also maintains an oiled link with the Buenos Aires mayor.
But that does not overlap differences. In fact, in the City they say they have sanitary arguments to maintain the current opening scheme drawn up on July 17 . But also political: a private poll that Larreta received says that only 25 percent of the people of Buenos Aires believe that they should go back in this flexible phase 3 of the quarantine.
Alberto Fernández, who says that he does not give importance to the polls when making decisions, is inclined because from August 3 "follow everything as it is" , according to his main collaborators. The decision will begin to take shape from the meeting that this Thursday will have with its Minister of Health, Ginés González García; and expert advice.