Legislative Council Election | Two sets of poll data show that the postponed voting due to the epidemic: the later the better the establishment

Political situation

Written by: Lin Jian

2020-07-29 07:00

Under the third wave of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, major news came from political circles yesterday (28th) that the Legislative Council election will be postponed for one year and will not be held until September next year.

How will the postponement of elections affect the political situation for one year? Based on the analysis of objective poll numbers, the more time passes, the more favorable the public sentiments will be to the government/establishment.

Some scholars pointed out that regardless of the specific purpose of the government’s postponement of elections, it will objectively benefit the establishment of elections. Coupled with the lack of credibility of the SAR government itself, voices questioning the government’s motives for rescheduling are unavoidable.

▼The third wave of epidemic measures, a comprehensive ban on food and gathering, tightened to 2 people▼

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The outside world generally believes that elections as usual under the epidemic will have three major disadvantages for the establishment: 1. During the epidemic, people from China and Hong Kong are inconvenient to travel between China and Hong Kong. People who live in the mainland for a long time may not be able to return to Hong Kong to vote. Traditional wisdom tells people to contact the mainland. More people believe that they are more inclined to support the establishment; second, under the gloom of the epidemic, the willingness of the elderly with weaker resistance to go out to vote in line has declined, and the elderly are considered to be the large voting warehouses of the establishment; third, through the democrats More than 600,000 people voted in the primaries, the national security law in the port area has stimulated, and the political atmosphere is high. It is generally believed that it will increase the willingness of democratic supporters to vote. In other words, postponing elections is logically beneficial to the establishment, but is it true in reality? Perhaps the answer may be found from two sets of rolling poll data.

The Legislative Council election may be postponed. (Profile picture)

Hong Kong Civil Research Statistics: The government's popularity is slowly picking up over time

According to figures from the Hong Kong Institute of Public Opinion, Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s rating dropped sharply after the legislative turmoil broke out in June last year. On the eve of the district council election last November (the survey date was November 15-21), it was only 19.7 points. The establishment was finally defeated in the November 24 elections. It is widely believed that this was due to the government's poor performance in the legislative amendments and its stance toward the establishment of the government. The election situation was directly affected.

In mid-February this year, affected by factors such as the initial outbreak of the epidemic, the initial refusal of the government to close customs, the shortage of masks, and the remarks made during interviews with reporters, Lin Zheng's score fell to the lowest point of 18.2. However, the score subsequently rebounded and stabilized to around 28 and 29 points in the past two months. Although they are not high, they are finally higher than the lowest period and have a tendency to slowly rise.

There is a similar trend in terms of trust in the SAR government. The net trust in the government (trust minus distrust) was -41.3% on the eve of last year's regional elections, and fell to the lowest point of -61.7% in mid-February this year. The number has risen to a level of minus 30% since March, and has been close to the level in recent months. The latest survey (July 20-24) was -35.5%.

"Reuters" survey: the later the time, the more disadvantaged the democrats

At the same time, a poll by "Reuters" can provide evidence from another angle. According to a survey that is updated every three months, in December last year, 41% of the respondents said they were “very supportive” of the anti-revision demonstration. This dropped to 40% in March this year and 34% in June; Among the respondents who expressed "very opposed" to the demonstrations, 24% in December last year, which dropped to 21% in March this year, but rose sharply to 28% in June this year.

In response to the demands of the democrats, polls also showed a similar phenomenon. Regarding the request for independent investigation of anti-amendment incidents, 74% of the respondents expressed support in December last year. In March this year, it rose slightly to 76%, but by June it fell sharply to 66%. They expressed that they “did not agree to any demands”. Of the interviewees, there were 16% in December last year, which dropped slightly to 15% in March this year, but rose sharply to 21% in June.

Based on the poll numbers of the above organizations, two analyses can be drawn: With the decline in the intensity of demonstrations and the chaos at the beginning of the epidemic, the popularity of the chief executive and the government as a whole has slowly risen; on the other side, the democrats have also gained momentum. Will gradually disappear over time. One trades down, and the longer the time delays, the more favorable the overall public sentiment will be for the election of the establishment.

In addition, as mentioned at the beginning of the article, after the epidemic, the establishment of the two major voting warehouses, namely Hong Kong residents and the elderly living in the Mainland, has greatly increased the willingness and convenience of voting at the voting stations. So no matter from which point of view, holding elections based on the current social conditions is not good for the establishment. If it is postponed for a year or a half, the epidemic may have eased by then, and the democrats may lack major issues as a foothold. The election situation is unpredictable. .

Fame analysis, regardless of the purpose, delaying elections will objectively benefit the establishment. (Photo/Photo by Ou Jiale)

Fame: Delaying elections can buy time for establishment

The Associate Professor of the Department of Social Sciences of the University of Science and Technology said that since the promulgation of the Minato National Security Law, the outside world believes that there may be more free votes flowing to the democrats, and it is not easy for the establishment to reverse the people's feelings in the next month. No matter what the purpose is, delaying the voting date can objectively buy time for the establishment to reverse public opinion. "With a delay of a few months or half a year, many new things can happen during the period, and the time establishments can do election projects. Of course, it does not mean that the establishments can be reversed, but at least buy time for them and provide variables."

For other registered candidates, please see:

Legislative Council election. Constantly updated｜List of the latest registrations every day

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