Eduardo Paladini
07/29/2020 - 13:52
- Clarín.com
- Politics
If it was a soccer game, Alberto Fernández would probably be asking for the time. A new electoral survey today shows a greater predisposition to vote for the ruling party than for the opposition. But in just one month, the distance was shortened quite a bit, in line with the general fall in the numbers linked to the President and the Government.
In gross data, now the Front of All would approach 42%, about seven points above the opposition variants , when in June the distance was close to 13. Both grew, but the non-official ones more.
The work that shows this change is from Zuban Córdoba & Asociados , a consultant with measurements that usually circulate around the Casa Rosada, although sometimes with information uncomfortable for the ruling party: for example, it was one of the first to start asking if Alberto Fernández was "in love with quarantine", a concept that irritates him and generated a public clarification from the president.
The last measurement of Zuban Córdoba included a survey of 1,200 online cases throughout the country, collected between July 15 and 18. The results were presented with a margin of error of +/- 2.83%.
In a first general review, the panorama that other pollsters have been showing is also confirmed. There is an extended drop in the ratings of Alberto Fernández and the management, but he still maintains good figures , even above the rest of the politicians. Some examples:
- The positive image of the President is at 63.3%. In April it had a peak of 84.2%. With the drop of more than 20 points , it was among the parameters it had when it took over (60.2%) and the month the pandemic started (March, 64.6%).
- Even with that abrupt drop, Alberto Fernández has a better weight in favor than the head of the Buenos Aires Government, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (61.6%), much better than Cristina Kirchner (43.9%) and more than double Mauricio Macri ( 29.9%).
- The discharge to the President suffered an even bigger drop : it reached the almost ideal 97% a few months ago and is now at 64.5%.
- When asked if "beyond the coronavirus", people "do you think Argentina is moving in the right direction?" , the variables also fall: in May, 58.3% answered yes and in July, it went to 46.1% .
Then he consults on the problems of everyday life. And the usual ones dot: unemployment (33.7%), inflation (13.9%), insecurity (11.4%). Justice does not appear , beyond the widespread criticism of this state power. For this reason, some analysts already speculate that the President could continue to lose support : while people feel overwhelmed by the coronavirus, quarantine and an unprecedented economic crisis, Alberto Fernández yielded to internal pressure and made judicial reform a priority. an eventual expansion of the Court.
Election poll
National survey of 1,200 cases. July 2020. In%
Tap to explore the data
Source: Zuban Córdoba & Asociados Infographic: Clarín
Regarding the electoral numbers , one year after the PASO Zuban Córdoba addresses the issue as other firms did: with a general question about the ruling party and the opposition, to see the first trends. In this case, it was stated that "next year there are legislative elections, you are going to vote ..." and two options were given: "candidates for deputies who defend Alberto" and "candidates opposed to Alberto". The first option won, the official one, with 41.8%, against 35.1% of the opposite (6.7 points difference) . Completed 23.1% of "don't know / don't answer"
But the comparison with the June data sets off an alert for the Government. So, the distance in their favor was 12.7 points: 38% vs. 25.3%, with 36.7% of "ns / nc". Both options grew, but much more the opposition (almost 10 points) than the official (less than 4).
Gustavo Córdoba , one of the consultant's directors and the one who best predicted the 2019 PASO -in a framework of general misconduct-, analyzed: "We are observing that there is an important percentage of the Argentine population, around 20%, which is in an extremely complex situation . Because on the one hand he is supporting the administration of Alberto Fernández, but when we specifically ask if he is going to vote for a candidate who defends the administration of the President, he does not lean towards it. It is a public that defines itself as moderate, that He does not feel represented by either side of the rift. He is 20% who somehow defined the 2019 election in favor of Alberto Fernández due to his conciliatory profile and is now once again one of the axes of Argentine politics. "