Will the US presidential election take place as scheduled on November 3? US President Donald Trump spoke on Twitter for the first time of a possible postponement of the poll.
“With postal voting […] 2020 will be the most inaccurate and fraudulent election in history,” he tweeted. “It will be a real shame for the United States. Postpone the election until people can safely and normally vote ??? ", he added.
With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote ???
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 30, 2020A tweet which takes place in a particularly tense context: the health crisis is worsening in the United States and the country is the most affected by the epidemic, with more than 150,000 deaths. GDP fell 32.9% in the second quarter, and 1.43 million Americans registered as unemployed in one week.
Does he have the means to postpone the election?
The US president alone has no way of postponing the presidential election, according to a Washington Post report. It is the congress which has the power to choose the date, the same for the whole country. This has not changed since 1845: always the first Tuesday in November, every four years.
Even in an emergency, such as a global pandemic, Donald Trump cannot bypass Congress to change the election date, and it is "extremely unlikely" that Congress wishes to do so, according to the Post. While he can pressure Republican congressmen to vote for, the chamber is still majority controlled by Democrats, who have no interest in changing the date.
If he cannot postpone the election, the American president has many means to undermine his good behavior. Rick Hasen, professor of law and political science at the University of California, explains to the American daily that Trump could use the legislation of certain states to withdraw the right to vote from citizens, in the name of public safety.
Indeed, the voters who elect the American president sometimes do not need to be elected by a public vote, as was the case in the early days of the American Republic. A measure which, according to the expert, "would be constitutional". But which would undoubtedly spark "a huge popular uprising".
Why does Trump want to change the date?
The answer may lie in the popularity of the American president: between the demonstrations following the death of George Floyd, the case of the Russian bounties allegedly paid to the Taliban to kill American soldiers, and the release of his ex-advisor Bolton's fire, this sequence is perhaps the most difficult to manage politically for Trump since the start of his mandate, in January 2017.
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But the most dangerous issue, believes Jean-Eric Branaa, lecturer at the University of Paris-II and specialist in the United States, is the health crisis and the explosion of unemployment: "The rest will not do move the lines on the electoral plan, because it is very partisan: concerning the demonstrations against racism, for example, those who are on the left are very committed in supporting the movement, and those who are on the right see it above all as a problem of violence. "
The political scientist cites as proof the unpopularity of Trump, who, since April, has risen more than his popularity has declined. But another crucial figure is shifting: the percentage of respondents saying they are undecided has fallen from around 5% to almost 3%. On a population of more than 300 million inhabitants, this development can have a significant impact at the polls on November 3. “This proves that those who are not traditionally included in parties are making their choice, and most often against Trump,” underlines Jean-Eric Branaa.
The goal pursued by Trump could be more political: the historian specializing in the United States Corentin Sellin believes in a tweet that the American president seeks to ensure "that any defeat is made illegitimate and rot an opposing presidency".
10) In short, the inexistence of evidence of electoral fraud AND the inversely proportional repetition, in 2016 and 2020, of #Trump's accusations demonstrate that the intention is primarily political: to make any defeat illegitimate and "rot" 1 opposing presidency.
- Corentin Sellin (@CorentinSellin) July 30, 2020For now, only one certainty: just over three months before the presidential election, this will not be the last twist of this crazy campaign. Especially if the election does not take place on November 3.