Editor's Note: Jorge G. Castañeda is a CNN contributor. He was Secretary of Foreign Relations of Mexico. He is currently a professor at New York University and his most recent book is "America Through Foreign Eyes", published by Oxford University Press. The opinions expressed in this column are exclusively those of the author.
(CNN Spanish) - Despite some new diatribes by President Donald Trump against Mexicans as carriers of the coronavirus, and his insistence that without the border wall the pandemic would have harmed the United States more, the honeymoon between the US president and his Mexican peer persists.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador's visit to Washington endorsed the Mexican position to avoid, at all costs, any confrontation with Trump, and the host respected previous unspoken agreements not to humiliate or criticize his visitor.
Unless a new dispute arises between the two governments - on immigration, drugs, security or trade - between now and the November presidential elections in the United States, there should be no major conflicts between the two countries. In this sense, López Obrador must feel satisfied: he fulfilled his purpose.
The problem is that this policy of systematically turning the other cheek, of submitting to the slightest wishes of the President of the United States and of postponing all differences for later, has costs. It is worth reviewing some of them.
We already explained a few days ago in this column how the number of arrests of Mexicans on the border between the two countries has increased.
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It is evident, as researcher Shannon O'Neil has pointed out, that a new migratory crisis is looming as the profile of migrants is transformed: more and more Mexicans, young people, men and alone, fleeing from the economic crisis in Mexico, much more severe than in the United States.
If the numbers keep growing, it seems hard to believe that Trump will not use this issue in his campaign.
Likewise, the rise in violence in Mexico and the growing impudence of organizations such as the Jalisco Nueva Generación cartel, coupled with the apparent growth in shipments of synthetic drugs - especially fentanyl and methamphetamines - to the United States via Mexico, augur a worrying panorama.
It is very possible that Trump also uses the opioid crisis in his campaign, since it affects one of his most important support bases: white men over 60 without a university degree. And Mexico would be a natural scapegoat, at the same time that the wall would be the supposed solution to the problem.
López Obrador's recent decision to militarize Mexican customs and in particular to hand over the administration of the ports to the Navy - the corporation that Washington trusts most - could be the result of pressure exerted by Trump during the President's visit. from Mexico.
Soon, despite the entry into force of the T-MEC, on July 1, the trade disputes between the two countries have not ceased. Rather, they are aggravated. On the one hand, there are disagreements on the mechanisms of "implementation" or "enforcement" of the treaty in labor and environmental matters. Democrats approved the deal because Trump and López Obrador accepted a series of very strict and expedited mechanisms aimed at raising wages in Mexico, allowing free and secret elections in unions, preventing child labor and forcing compliance with environmental regulations. rigorous.
They already pressure Trump to make this set of mechanisms work immediately. The special representative for Commerce before Congress had committed to this a few days before the treaty entered into force. Few Mexican companies are able to meet these standards.
On the other hand, the list of US and Canadian companies —especially energy companies— is expanding with litigation in Mexico due to new provisions or decisions made by the López Obrador government.
Be it traditional or renewable electricity generators, who have changed the rules of the game and rates, or oil companies in constant dispute with Pemex, the Mexican state oil monopoly, or other investors with interests in Mexico; They all go to the White House to have Trump intercede on their behalf with the Mexican authorities.
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Again, there are rumors that Trump did touch on some of these issues during his White House talks with López Obrador, but what is certain is that the complaints, demands and pressure from US companies will continue to face the changes in Mexico. .
Finally, López Obrador eliminated part of a potential conflict by terminating the agreement between Mexico City and the Government of Cuba on the presence of some 600 Cuban doctors in the Mexican capital.
Two US senators of Cuban origin, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, presented, together with Rick Scott, a bill that contemplates sanctions against those countries that receive Cuban doctors without examining their conditions of payment, work, and respect for their rights. humans.
Mexico obviously did not meet those conditions and the Cubans were probably sent home for that reason. But some doctors on the island may still remain in Mexico, and it is not impossible that the conflict will arise again if the Senate in Washington approves the law proposed by Rubio, Cruz and Scott.
Thus, there is no shortage of possible sources of conflict between Mexico and the United States before the end of the Trump government, in case Joe Biden, the virtual Democratic candidate, wins. And if this is the case, a new chapter will be opened, in which Mexico will pay - how expensive we do not know - for having openly supported Trump, as López Obrador did in Washington.
Andrés Manuel López ObradorDonald Trump