Legislative Council Election Postponed | Four DQ Members If the Fall of the Horse Causes a Chain Effect or Another Pan-Democratic Seat Will Not Be Guaranteed

Political situation

Written by: Lin Jian

2020-08-02 22:26

The Legislative Council election is postponed for one year, and the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will make a decision on the operational arrangements for the next year. If the basic principle is to be as simple as possible with few changes, the most reasonable situation is to extend the current Legislative Council for one year.

However, even with the extension of the current Legislative Council, there is still an important issue that remains unresolved. The four incumbent members whose nomination was invalidated by the Returning Officer earlier, including the Civic Party Yang Yueqiao, Guo Jiaqi, Guo Rongkeng, and the professional councillor Liang Jichang, will be in the future. Will the membership of the "Career Council" be affected? Tan Yaozong, a member of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, said today (2nd) that if some people are found to be ineligible for election, but they can transition, they are indeed "embarrassed."

Whether these four people can retain their seats will have a profound impact on the political situation in the coming year and even the future. This is because if the democrats lose 4 more seats, they will lose one-third of the key minority "defensive line" in Parliament. The biggest impact is the current motion to condemn congressmen. The establishment will be able to take the lead and induce a domino effect at any time. At least four current democratic congressmen are facing a DQ crisis in disguise.

The four current members of the democratic camp were ruled that the nomination was invalid. It is unknown whether the parliament will "transition" in the coming year. (Profile picture)

The political reform veto is not affected

After the oath of this session of the Legislative Council, 6 seats were vacant, and then 5 were filled by by-elections. However, the democrats Fan Guowei and Ou Nuoxuan were ruled to be improperly elected and disqualified as members; the establishment Chen Kaixin was ruled to be unqualified. The duly elected cases are still awaiting appeal proceedings. He Qiming of the Federation of Trade Unions was transferred to the Deputy Director of the Bureau of Labor and Welfare, and the vacancy was not filled. All in all, the overall situation of the current parliament is 24 seats for the non-organizational faction (including the passionate citizen Zheng Songtai and the middle-level medical practitioner Chen Peiran), and the establishmentalism 42 seats (minus He Qiming). The 24 seats are just one-third of the total 70 seats in the Legislative Council. If the four democrats cannot transition to the next year's parliament, the democrats will drop to 20 seats.

At present, the Basic Law says about "two-thirds of members". One is "two-thirds of all members" and the other is "two-thirds of members attending the meeting." "Two-thirds of all members", that is, the establishment itself must have 47 seats in order to be unimpeded. For important matters such as political reform (modification of the method for selecting the Chief Executive or the Legislative Council), and the impeachment of the Chief Executive, 47 are required. Members of the Legislative Council agree. Therefore, even if the four DQ members of the pro-democracy party are "lost" and are not extended, this will not be affected, and the establishment has not fully controlled the situation. Of course, given the current political environment, whether the government has the incentive to restart political reform is another question.

The establishment of the "two-thirds of the present" will be any DQ democrats

However, "two-thirds of the members attending the meeting" does not count all the seats, but the members who attended the meeting at the time of voting. If the democrats have only 20 seats left, and the establishment can maintain 42 seats, the establishment just overtakes threshold.

According to Article 79 of the Basic Law, if a member of the Legislative Council is convicted of a criminal offence within or outside the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, he shall be sentenced to more than one month’s imprisonment, and approved by two-thirds of the legislators present at the meeting. Dismissal of his office; if his misconduct or violation of his oath is approved by two-thirds of the legislative council members present at the meeting, he will lose his seat. In other words, if the four democratic DQ deputies cannot transition, if the democrats are left with 20 seats, the establishment will have the power to revoke their membership in the next year.

If the democrats lose 4 more seats, they may indirectly affect the membership qualifications of Xu Zhifeng, Mao Mengjing, Lin Zhuoting, and Zheng Songtai in the coming year. (Profile picture)

4 Democrats may be directly affected

There are currently five pro-democracy members who have been moved by the establishment to condemn them. The first person to bear the brunt will be the Democratic Party member Xu Zhifeng. Because of the 2018 mobile phone robbing case, the investigation committee led by the establishment last month ruled that the conduct was "sufficient to constitute a basis for condemnation." However, due to the end of his term, he could not follow up. If the term of the Legislative Council is extended, the plan of the establishment has a chance to "resurrect the dead."

In addition, the New Democrat Party Rong Haien moved to condemn Cheng Songtai in December in response to the incident that hit the Legislative Council last year; Ho Junyao questioned the role of Democratic Party member Lin Cheuk Ting in the July 21 attack in Yuen Long and moved to condemn the other party in December. Both have been handed over to the investigation committee, but have not been dealt with due to the end of the term.

In addition, Mao Mengjing stated at the Security Affairs Committee meeting last year that Rong Haien was about to take maternity leave and should not run for vice chairman of the committee. Rong Haien accused Mao Mengjing of pregnancy discrimination. He filed a motion of condemnation in May this year, but it has not yet been handed over to the investigation committee. If the term of the Legislative Council is extended, the establishment may have sufficient time to deal with the above matters.

As for Guo Rongkeng's motion of condemnation by four pro-formation members due to the dispute in the election of the chairman, the motion of condemnation has not yet been passed to the investigation committee. However, if Guo Rongkeng fails to transition to the new parliament after the extension of the parliamentary term, the relevant bills will have meaning again.

It can be said that the parliamentary power itself has leaned toward the establishment. As mentioned at the beginning of the article, the four people lose their seats in the next year, and the remaining balance of power will completely disappear, triggering a domino effect at any time.

Legislative Council election postponement | Margaret Chan points out that the new crown virus is the most "crafty" in support of postponing the election

Postponement of Legislative Council Election | Chief Executive's Office: Regrets misleading reports by individual media

Will the Legislative Council be extended for one year? Tan Yaozong: Being embarrassed by the status of the current DQ member of the National People's Congress Standing Committee needs discussion

Legislative Council election 2020 Legislative Council election