The horror film that took place yesterday hit Lebanon at the worst time, in the midst of an unprecedented crisis • For Hezbollah this is a particularly severe blow, even if Israel was not behind the explosion • The Lebanese public loses patience with Nasrallah's whims, and will not forgive unnecessary confrontation • Interpretation

Even before the full details of the huge explosion that terrified Beirut yesterday became clear, it is clear that this is a reality-changing event, the consequences of which are still far from being fully clarified.

The explosion in the port of Beirut

Since in the Middle East things do not tend to explode on their own, the initial instinct was to look for the person responsible for the explosion. WhatsApp groups and Twitter tweets were quick to attribute the responsibility to Israel, but a quick inquiry led to a sweeping denial of all political and security factors in the country.

Past experience also shows that Israel is very careful in choosing its goals, and even more careful in its efforts to ensure that no casualties are caused in its actions. The attempt to avoid casualties stems not only from the desire not to kill innocent people, but also from the understanding that such an event could open a cycle of blood and revenge, to the point of war. Although incidents may occur, an event of this magnitude - with thousands of casualties and enormous damage - is outside the basket of actions taken by Israel, openly or secretly.

In the first minutes after the incident, some feared that Hezbollah would point the finger of blame at Israel, in order to keep it away. However, the organization was quick to make it clear (through the Lebanese media) that Israel was not connected to the explosion. This clarification may be due to the fact that Hezbollah is also unrelated to the incident, or that it seeks to distance testimony from itself.

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Israel offered humanitarian aid to Lebanon

The matter will become clear when it is clarified what exactly exploded in Beirut, and whether it was a military incident (a warehouse of weapons) or a civilian (concentration of some substance that caused the huge explosion; rumors spread in Lebanon last night that it was a nitrogen accumulation).

One way or another, Israel and Hezbollah still have an open case: the organization's desire to avenge the death of its operative, in an attack on a weapons depot attributed to the Air Force two weeks ago at Damascus airport. At the border, for fear of an attack.

But the explosion in Beirut could devour Hezbollah's cards. It catches Lebanon at a point that is perhaps the lowest in its history: in an unprecedented economic crisis, with rising unemployment and on the verge of insolvency, with Hezbollah itself accused of torpedoing economic reforms that are conditions for receiving aid from the World Bank and European countries. Along with the corona plague, the Lebanese public has very little patience for security escalation, which Hezbollah may lead to in its efforts to kill IDF soldiers.

The explosion in Beirut destroyed the headquarters of the "Dailystar" newspaper

Now, in the wake of what appears to be a serious incident in the country's history, the Lebanese public will have even less desire for unnecessary security tensions that are the whim of Hezbollah. Against the background of Israel's clear warning - revealed in "Israel Today" - that any attack on Israelis will lead to damage to the infrastructure of the State of Lebanon, the internal pressure on the organization to avoid adventurous and dangerous moves is expected to increase.

To this pressure is added the expected publication over the weekend of the conclusions of the International Tribunal appointed to investigate the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. It is estimated that the tribunal will hold Hezbollah directly responsible for the murder, and will demand the extradition of its people who are actually responsible. 

The organization will probably reject things (Hassan Nasrallah was scheduled to deliver a speech tonight), but it is doubtful that 15 years after shocking Lebanon with the assassination of the popular prime minister, the organization will choose to shock the country again through a campaign with Israel. And in order to further sandal Hezbollah, last night Israel offered humanitarian aid to Lebanon.

The destruction in the port of Beirut after the explosion - difficult images to view

Lebanon is likely to reject the proposal, but the gesture is not only intended to distance the event from Israel, but also to make clear to Lebanon who are the good ones who offer aid (Israel), and who are the bad guys who could complicate the country in the war (Hezbollah).