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IDF's Plan: Taking a Heavy Price from Hezbollah and Lebanon to Ensure Long-Term Silence | Israel Today

2020-08-04T05:31:18.392Z


| SecurityIsrael hopes that Nasrallah will give up the reaction, but in case he chooses to act - a significant blow is prepared for him • The attempted amateur attack in the Golan proved the limitations of Iranian ability in Syria, but in Lebanon the game is different • IDF forces patrol the Golan Heights border Photo:  Eyal Margolin - Ginny One of the football clichés states that "you are as good as y...


Israel hopes that Nasrallah will give up the reaction, but in case he chooses to act - a significant blow is prepared for him • The attempted amateur attack in the Golan proved the limitations of Iranian ability in Syria, but in Lebanon the game is different •

  • IDF forces patrol the Golan Heights border

    Photo: 

    Eyal Margolin - Ginny

One of the football clichés states that "you are as good as your last game". It seems that the IDF was happy to adopt this sentence, and apply it to the attack that was thwarted last night (Sunday) in the Golan Heights.

This was one of the attacks in which everything worked for the benefit of the Israeli side. The enemy was weak and amateurish, the force facing him was alert and precise, and the end result was sharp and clear - 4-0 - with no question marks as to who won and who lost and without unnecessary press conferences.

Prevention of a bomb attack in the southern Golan Heights // Photo: IDF Spokesman

This is due, first and foremost, to the nature of the decree. The Syrian border, unlike the Lebanese one, is convenient for operation. It has no clear rules, it has no mutual deterrence, everything is allowed in it. The IDF's advantage over the enemy - any enemy - is enormous. It is indisputable.

This is reflected in the freedom of action of the Air Force over the skies of Syria, and also in the freedom of action along the ground border. The fact that Israel has a clear address to charge a price for - the Syrian government - also makes life easier for the IDF, and of course the fact that the enemy on the other hand is much weaker and more threatening than the one on the other side of the Lebanese border.

This is reflected in the recent incident. The IDF, it seems, was well prepared for it. The presence of the ground force from the Magellan unit (and air support) does not seem to be a coincidence. As always, real-time control of intelligence and fire was required to close a circle, even though the enemy was not very professional: , The visible arrival at the fence, the return on an upright walk - for moments it seems like a trip of young people on vacation, and certainly not like a skilled terrorist cell on its way to an attack.

Rely only on ourselves

In the past, squads have operated in this sector. One of them, of Druze from the village of Khader, also managed to blow up a bomb scene that injured four soldiers, including one seriously. Yesterday's charge - which exploded near a foot force - also had deadly potential. It was placed inside Israeli territory, in an area where the border fence does not overlap with the border route, for topographic reasons. Therefore, the IDF also complained about the violation of Israel's sovereignty before UNODOF personnel, who are responsible for separating the forces in the area.

As in Lebanon, salvation will not come from the UN in the Golan Heights. The IDF can and should rely only on itself. There are a number of elements and organizations operating in this sector - including Hezbollah emissaries - although it seems that elements of the Iranian Quds Force carried out this attack. It may have been Iran's retaliation for harming the Natanz centrifugal plant early last month.

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Beyond the fact that this is another failed Iranian revenge attempt, Israel can be encouraged by two other issues: The first is that Iran is seeking a small, tactical revenge, one that will not drag it into escalation and widespread clash with Israel. And the other is that its operational capability in Syria is very limited, and it finds it difficult to carry out even seemingly simple local attacks.

The IDF must not be overly perfumed by this success in the Golan. Although its last game ended in defeat for the enemy, the one who stood up was at most a youth group. Two weeks ago in Damascus.

B & Bs and standby

Hezbollah has not yet clarified where and when it intends to act. Apparently, he can stretch the IDF to the limit. To drive him crazy with bounces, to pluck his nerves. On the other hand, Israel can also drive him crazy, and the Lebanese. Any injury to an Israeli soldier or civilian has caused great concern in Lebanon, which is in a difficult social, health and economic situation, and the last thing it needs is war.

Hassan Nasrallah also reads the Israeli public, and is aware of the economic-health-political situation here. In an attempt to balance the equation, Beirut made it clear that attacking infrastructure in Lebanon is like declaring war. True to his favorite eye-to-eye equation (or more precisely: blood for blood), he sought to convey that he would not only avenge the killing of his people, but also expand the equation to hit Israeli infrastructure for any damage to Lebanese infrastructure.

Photo: Niv Aharonson

Israel must not blink in this situation. It has no interest in escalating on the northern border, but Hezbollah has even less interest in it. If the organization wants to play chicken on the Lebanese border - let it be. As long as Israel manages to maintain a record alert in the army, and at the same time maintain a civilian routine where the B & Bs are full and tourism in the north is flourishing - it is possible to live with it, even for a long time.

It requires strong nerves, and patience. As time goes on, the legitimacy of Hezbollah's attack decreases, because it moves away from its original context. The hope in Israel is that the organization will be content with a symbolic action, and come down from the tree. and if not? The Northern Command is preparing for several days of fighting, at high intensity, during which a high price will be charged from Hezbollah and the State of Lebanon, in order to strengthen deterrence and ensure a long period of calm in the north.

Source: israelhayom

All news articles on 2020-08-04

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