Tourism is one of the economic sectors that suffers the most from the coronavirus pandemic and the " Great Containment ", recalls the IMF (International Monetary Fund) in a report published on Tuesday. During the first four months of the year, foreign visitors to the world were half as numerous as a year earlier. Also on a global scale, and according to an IMF indicator, hotel reservations fell, up to 70% in April, and international flights up to 80%.
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Even if the borders reopen from September as established by a scenario of the World Tourism Organization (an offshoot of the UN), the financial losses for the countries most dependent on tourism are expected to be considerable, according to IMF estimates. Estimates that should be taken with the greatest caution, warns the report, as the uncertainties on the evolution of the pandemic, the behavior of travelers and the recovery plans remain great.
Thailand will suffer the most, according to the IMF, in terms of balance of payments. The shortfall in 2020 is expected to weigh 6% of GDP (see infographic). The damage will be greater if tourism does not resume from September.
Behind Thailand, Greece is expected to suffer the biggest revenue loss, also close to 6% of GDP. Next are Portugal (less than 5%), Morocco and Spain. France, a country heavily dependent on the tourism industry, is doing quite well and should limit its losses to 0.5% of GDP. This figure does not mean that French growth will be cut by 0.5% because of the tourism crisis, but that the loss of net revenue from international tourism is equivalent to half a point of GDP.
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The IMF warns of the resumption of tourism, which is likely to be very gradual. The sector's difficulties are expected to continue next year. The Washington institution's annual report on external accounts does not only cover tourism receipts, far from it. It also reviews the effects of falling commodity prices or money transfers sent by migrant workers to country accounts. But it clearly shows that for a certain number of countries, the deterioration of the balance of payments is due to the sudden stop of travel due to the pandemic.