Lichtman: Donald Trump to lose elections in 2020 1:26
(CNN) –– History professor Allan Lichtman is used to always being right.
He has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential race since Ronald Reagan won reelection in 1984, through his "13 keys" system. (It is important to note that in 2000, Lichtman predicted that Al Gore would win the election. Although Gore won the popular vote, he ultimately lost the presidency to George W. Bush after the Supreme Court ruled to halt the counting of Florida's electoral votes. Lichtman maintains the validity of his prediction).
Now, Lichtman and his "13 keys" are ready to anticipate the outcome of the 2020 elections.
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In an interview with CNN, Lichtman was definitive in his answer: "The keys predict that Donald Trump will lose the White House this year."
Lichtman bases his forecast on a model of "13 keys" that can be answered as true or false for any given choice. The "13 keys" to his system include factors such as the economy, responsibility, social upheaval and scandals, as well as the personal charisma of the candidates.
“The secret is to never lose sight of the big picture of headline strength and performance. And pay no attention to the polls, the commentators, the day-to-day ups and downs of the campaign. What the keys measure is the big picture, ”Lichtman explained.
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After 2016, Americans have (sympathetically) distrusted prediction models for the presidency. But "rejecting Lichtman's findings would be like hiding your head like an ostrich," CNN editor-in-chief Chris Cillizza said in his political session this week.
When asked if the keys model could explain something as catastrophic as the covid-19 pandemic, Lichtman remained confident. “Look, retrospectively and prospectively, the keys date back to 1860. They are what we call a robust system. Therefore, I do not play with them. They have remained in the midst of enormous changes in our politics, our economy, our democracy. Don't fiddle with the keys, ”he added.
Although Lichtman has been forecasting elections since 1982, he explained that he still feels the same pressure every four years. "I am 73 years old," he told CNN. "But every time, without fail, I feel butterflies."
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