08/06/2020 - 23:05
- Clarín.com
- Opinion
Larry Fink, the powerful banker from Manhattan, was direct: "Our claim is only about an economic issue and we defend it, because we consider it fair." He paused. And he finished: " Our resistance is economic and not political to the government of its President." He also said: "If we agree to the conditions, we will keep our word." The BlackRock chief's interlocutor was an important emissary of Alberto Fernández. Sergio Massa was in charge of transmitting to the President the result of the mission.
It happened five days before the closing of the agreement with the "wolves" of Wall Street. Exactly, on Wednesday, July 29.
The communication served to ensure that it was negotiated in good faith and that there was no boycott of Argentina from the US . The emissary's mission sought assurances that the closing of a deal was to be accomplished by the Manhattan “wolves”. It was when there were only dark clouds in the negotiation and the worst - unfounded - conspiracy theories circulated in Buenos Aires.
There was a group of government officials and businessmen linked to the Casa Rosada who spoke of the need to displace Martín Guzmán to facilitate the closure. They had made contacts and were promoting the return of Roberto Lavagna. The former minister disavowed them and retired to his Cañuelas farm.
The closing of the agreement was in the hands of the President and the Minister of Economy. Guzmán was strengthened and put away the worst nightmares. Now it is the “primus inter pares” among the ministers of the economic area. Both had to swallow toads and show a strong dose of pragmatism. The final proposal demanded an increase of $ 16.5 billion , what was announced in April as unchangeable.
It also forced the economy to file an alleged commandment: the limits that the IMF imposed on debt sustainability. Cristina Kirchner monitored the operation and had a star adviser: the oil tanker Miguel Galuccio.
Sergio Massa transmitted to Alberto Fernández the result of the mission with BlackRock.
The vice president prepared - in her record - contested accounts, but always strictly complied with the "wolves" of Wall Street. Now it was a key support for Guzmán: 10 days ago she urged that she not delay and close the agreement. Cristina - at the end of 2018 - conditioned her own presidential candidacy to the opinion of international centers. For that, she asked for a secret report on Manhattan's opinion about her project to return to the Casa Rosada.
Alberto himself was commissioned to do the work and the confidential report was made by Guillermo Nielsen. The conclusion was concrete: with Cristina in the Casa Rosada, an agreement with Wall Street would be difficult and Argentina could enter a greater economic turmoil.
That report convinced him not to go for the Presidency and was an essential reason for the political armed with Alberto Fernandez.
The current deal with Wall Street "wolves" was closed after 16 hours of continuous negotiations between Guzmán and Jennifer O'Neill. The marathon took place on Sunday and Monday morning. Then came the fumata.
The agreement generates significant financial relief until the end of Alberto's term . A kind of "truce" with Manhattan. But starting in 2025, the numbers are heavy for the economy again. Alberto -in any case- achieved significant financial oxygen and avoiding the definitive default was the only achievement that his management has up to now.
The agreement was virtually closed on July 23. Clarín anticipated its details and specified - a day later in its paper edition - that the "wolves" of Wall Street reported that the agreement to a value of $ 54.9 was imminent. The difference was only a penny.
Alberto Fernández scored an achievement with the closing of the agreement.
About twenty days earlier, UBS made efforts to bring the positions closer. The task was in charge of the bankers Enrique Vivot and Federico Isenberg. But the last weekend of July there was a breakout attempt. From both sides. It was this that prompted the President's emissary to speak to the BlackRock honcho. The Quinta de Olivos wanted to know if the "wolves" were in favor of an agreement or to turn the negotiations over and the minister.
He also obeyed the inflexible criteria of the Palace of the Treasury and inadmissible personal provocations of the Manhattan hardliners. Gerardo Rodríguez asked for Guzmán's head and disqualified the main Argentine negotiator: he issued derogatory nicknames against Guzmán, which circulated in Manhattan to discredit him. Joseph Stiglitz - the minister's mentor - put unnecessary pressure. In the midst of the delicate situation, he went out to throw stones: "The creditors are recalcitrant and myopic."
In Manhattan they interpreted that it was a response from Guzmán himself to the offenses he received. But the doubts were opening. David Martínez, the head of the Fintech - and always in favor of the agreement - questioned last Saturday: “Does the minister want to break the negotiation, to justify his professorships at Columbia? "
Breakthrough theories gave way to rational positions. The resolution of the crisis makes one issue clear: Argentina is so weak that it has no room for more economic follies . Vicentin is another example. The external agreement is a "necessary" but not a "sufficient" condition to try to get out of the perfect storm that is hitting the economy. The tension of the dollar this Thursday reflected the ephemeral nature of the celebrations and that Argentina needs a development plan. The Casa Rosada must take immediate and warm measures. One is the increase in fuels. Now the decision has Guzmán.
Larry Fink, powerful Manhattan banker and head of BlackRock. The negotiation with him was tense.
The oil companies are on alert for a controversial decision by the Senate that Cristina is handling: she reversed the State's decision to compensate for variations in the exchange rate in the price of gas. They came from the time of Mauricio Macri and imply millionaire losses. The most affected firms are the former Enarsa and YPF. The issue will punish - even more - the balance of the state oil company, which will give a deep red on Tuesday.
Guzmán outlined his next steps on Wednesday at a meeting at the Palacio de Hacienda. Were Maximo Kirchner, Sergio Massa, Wado of Peter and James Cafiero. The lunch was to "celebrate" the agreement with the bondholders, but there were two transcendent definitions. The first, political, was in charge of Máximo. Between curls and jarana the young deputy sent an Exocet: “Martín: up to here it was a blank check. From now on, what I did not discuss beforehand, I do not vote for . " Sergio Chodos, the Argentine at the IMF, was a witness.
Máximo's sayings were known in Washington. Guzmán anticipated that he has already sent a personal letter to Kristalina Georgieva. In that text, Argentina gave up using the money pending on the frustrated agreement with Macri. Emissaries of the IMF already had, in these days, meetings with Argentine bankers and economists . Luis Cubeddu and Julie Kozach from Washington and Trevor Alleyne in Buenos Aires participate.
The trio denied the Casa Rosada's “romantic” vision: that negotiations with the IMF will be easy. The IMF communicated to the Treasury Palace the three key urticants of the imminent negotiation : it wants an expanded facilities plan and Alberto's commitment to reform the pension system and labor laws. There will be a collision of planets.
LP