Dismantling the bureau: the Panminist resignation against the "Provisional Legislative Council"? Scholars bearish: at most one or two days of international news

Political situation

Written by: Lin Jian

2020-08-07 07:00

The government delayed the election of the Legislative Council on the grounds of the epidemic, and the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will later decide on the arrangements for the parliamentary vacuum period in the coming year. In recent days, a number of established members of the political system have been released. The 4 current legislators who have been DQ during the nomination period should not be extended. If the current distribution of parliamentary power is finally changed, the democrats will not be able to hold even one-third of the key minority, and even deal with it in a form similar to the provisional legislature. Whether the democrats should resign or boycott the transitional parliament has recently become the focus of discussion. It is understood that the democrats will hold an internal meeting today (7th) to discuss countermeasures.

Ma Yue, an associate professor in the Department of Politics and Administration at the Chinese University of China, said that the advocator of the general resignation has not yet been able to answer the question of what substantial difference can be brought about by a total boycott of the parliament. He also pointed out that the people themselves have questioned the fairness of the electoral system, and that the international community has basic research and judgment on the situation in Hong Kong. Whether the general remarks will not have a big impact, "at most, it will be a day or two of international news."

Democrats will discuss a response plan on Friday (August 7). (Profile picture)

General remarks/boycott: the contradiction between "strong expression" and "risk"

Whether "total resignation" or "boycott", after all, it is just a difference in form. The core idea is to completely resist the non-democratic parliament, which will have a shocking effect in public opinion, which will reduce the acceptance of parliament in the next year, and even further attract the attention of international public opinion, affecting the political situation of Western countries in China and Hong Kong. The research and judgment. The famous lyricist Lin Xi wrote an article in the newspaper a few days ago, saying that his general remarks are "preserving dignity," to show that the regime is not playing tricks, and betting chips on the international front is "a statement of nuclear bomb level."

However, the risk of a total boycott is that if there are no democrats in the parliament in the next year, the government will push any bills unimpeded. By then, it will repeat itself after the democrats boycotted the provisional legislature in 1997. The pro-China faction controlled the legislature and arbitrarily revised it. The mistake of the case. Therefore, some people advocate that every inch of land must be contended. Even if they know that the parliament has a lack of influence, they all hope to keep the voice of the democrats in the parliament as much as possible.

The last time the Democracy Party got caught up in the discussion of the general remarks was in July 2017. At that time, Liu Xiaoli, Luo Guancong, Yao Songyan, Liang Guoxiong and others were deprived of seats due to the oath case, which aroused the anger of the democrats. Former pro-local legislator Huang Yumin, retired middle school teacher Han Lianshan, and others, advocated the general resignation of democratic legislators to show that the system is unfair, but the proposal was strongly opposed. Democratic legislator Yin Zhaojian severely criticized the advocates of general resignation as "ghosts". ". According to the analysis of politicians, one of the pan-democratic considerations at the time was that once the general rhetoric was equivalent to a full-scale confrontation with the government, it was a desperate move. However, the democrats were at a low ebb in social movement at that time, and the local factions and the mainstream pan-democratic forces became a fire and flame, and large-scale resistance was difficult. succeed.

Today's democrats are once again standing at this historical juncture. What is different from three years ago is that today’s social and political atmosphere is on the rise. After the anti-amendment incident, there is a consensus among the democrats to "not cut seats" and that different routes can cooperate. The international political environment is also quite different. Focus on improving. Therefore, some democrats believe that the general remarks can fuel a new wave of resistance.

Some local factions analyzed that even the Civic Party has fallen into the scope of the DQ, making them more convinced that the parliamentary space is exhausted and they are more supportive of the general remarks. (Profile picture)

Local and protesters judge: DQ Civic Party shows that parliament has no way to go

Some local factions analyzed the underlying context: on the eve of the postponement of the election in Beijing, DQ, including the Citizens Party, drawn a number of political red lines, and the indicators played a very strong role. Because for a long period of time in the past, keeping moderate and pan-popular citizens in the parliament has a dual strategic role for Beijing: one is to act as a "political vase", declaring to the international community that Hong Kong still has a certain degree of democratic elections; Second, because the democrats have become part of the system, they have clear goals for participating in politics and official careers. They can play a role in maintaining stability at critical moments. For example, during the Umbrella Movement in 2014, mainstream pan-democrats and their friendship will in turn prevent the escalation of resistance. , And even persuaded to give up part of the occupied area.

However, because of this, there was a serious line dispute between the Pan-Democrats and the newly-born local/radical faction. In addition, the two factions were independent in the DQ incident, and the democrats fell into a low ebb. In the two Kowloon West by-elections in 2018, supporters of the local faction refused to vote for the democrats and even preferred to vote for the establishment. The democrats lost two consecutive battles. During the anti-amendment legislation in 2019, the democratic parties refused to separate their seats from fierce demonstrations, and immediately won the district council elections at the end of the year. However, the local faction believes that precisely because the mainstream pan-democratic party has merged with factions that advocate fierce resistance, for Beijing, they have lost their original role in stabilizing society and are more likely to fall into the "DQ line."

Cen Aohui, a Tsuen Wan district councillor and former deputy secretary-general of the Student Federation, who was also ruled that the nomination was invalid in this election, pointed out that when even the more moderate democrats have been DQ, it shows that the voice of opposition to Beijing in the system has been eliminated and the "breaking" has been achieved.

Against the above background, many local factions and protesters have expressed a positive attitude towards the general remarks. A local district councillor who did not want to be named told the "Hong Kong 01" reporter that most pro-local advocates believe that a parliament created by "black box operation" should be boycotted; the local factionist Zou Jiacheng, who has signed up to participate in the New Territories East election, is in fb. The post stated that accepting the appointment is equivalent to acknowledging the legitimacy of the "Provisional Legislative Council 2.0" and accepting the "recruitment".

Ma Yue said that for the time being, it is impossible to see whether the general remarks will have much impact on the overall public opinion and the international research and judgment on Hong Kong. (Profile picture)

Ma Yue: It is difficult to tell whether the general remarks are different or not, "up to one or two days of international news"

During the interview, Ma Yue mentioned that the significance of the general speech itself is naturally to show that it lacks acceptance and does not conform to legal standards through the boycott of the parliament. However, he believes that those who advocate the resignation have not yet been able to answer how the movement can proceed if there is no democracy in the parliament in the future, and whether there is any conflict between the resistance and the resignation. "People outside the parliament participate in the street front and the international front. If the democrats don't always resign, can they not do it? Can the general resignation add significant value to the entire democratic movement? This is not visible for the time being. Some supporters of the pro-democracy camp may feel that even if the composition is undemocratic, they hope that some MPs can express their protests in the parliament on their behalf, and what they can do."

As for whether the boycott of the parliament will help the democrats to strengthen public opinion and make the world pay more attention to the situation in Hong Kong, Ma Yue said: "Even if the democrats don't always give up, the current Western countries' perception of Beijing and Hong Kong government control of election results already exists, basically The overall situation has been achieved. There will be no big difference between whether or not the general remarks are made. Even if it is international news, it will only take one or two days at most." He also mentioned that Beijing’s attitude towards Hong Kong will of course take into account Hong Kong’s public opinion and international perception. However, from the establishment of the Hong Kong National Security Law, the large-scale DQ, and even the one-year delay in elections, it can be seen that Beijing will eventually choose a tougher direction. In the end, apart from "expressing dissatisfaction," does the general remark have any other substantive effect? ​​This is an advocate. What has not been explained so far.

Ma Yue pointed out that if some democrats think that "the system is already unplayable," they may face a problem next year, which is whether they will still participate in the 2021 election. He believes that even though DQ has appeared in today's electoral system and civil society has been suppressed in different forms, voting in elections is still one of the few remaining ways to express their opinions. "There is no single front that can solve all problems. They must cooperate with each other. This is a strategy that the democrats need to think carefully about."

Zhong Jianhua, the deputy chief executive of the Hong Kong Institute of Public Opinion, pointed out that whether the general resignation or boycott depends on whether the four members of the DQ can be extended before being elected. He pointed out that because the democrats themselves questioned the legitimacy of the postponement of the elections and the provisional parliament, if they want to participate in the provisional parliament, they need to find a reasonable reason. If the original class transitions, it is still easy to solve. But if the original composition of the parliament is changed, they will It is more difficult to explain to voters why they still want to participate. "May have to carry the baggage of a "political vase"." The government can also call the parliament "widely representative" in the coming year. As for the number of things that can be achieved by participating in the parliament once the total number of seats is less than one-third, Zhong Jianhua said that this is left to the democrats to weigh.

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