After the huge explosion this week in the port of Beirut, the crisis in the northern neighbor will deepen - and will not miss Nasrallah's organization • The chances of the organization risking complicating Lebanon with another fire are very slim • This is good news for Israel, but temporary • Interpretation

In recent days, Israeli intelligence sources have been following the reports flowing from Beirut with great interest, in an attempt to understand the broad implications of the disaster that befell Lebanon.

The main effort is to understand what exactly happened: Did poor handling of the hazardous materials cause an explosion that terrified the city and destroyed large parts of it, or did another factor lead to the initial explosion, which exploded the huge accumulation of ammonium nitrate held in a port warehouse in the city.

The destruction in the port of Beirut after the explosion - difficult images to view

The information coming in this context from Lebanon is contradictory, and its credibility is questionable. Hezbollah has quite a few properties in the port area. In some of them, the organization also has weapons. As of yesterday there was no proof that there was a connection between the two. It is likely that even if such a connection exists, Hezbollah will do everything to obscure it. Whoever built his fame for being a defender of Lebanon will not want to be perceived as its destroyer.

Lebanese authorities are still in shock. The energies are currently being directed to locate the hundreds of missing, care for the thousands injured, and find shelter for the tens of thousands left homeless. It is likely that in the coming days the commission of inquiry will begin to operate. It may be assisted by foreign experts. The assumption is that sooner or later the truth will come out. The event is too large for anyone to sweep it aside.

More on this topic:

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My Lebanese heart has been broken for a long time

Following the disaster: Israel offered aid to Lebanon

The bombing disaster in Beirut: The Lebanese government has declared a two-week state of emergency

Lebanese flag on the Tel Aviv Municipality building

Lebanon after this event will be different. It is not yet clear in what way, but different. This blow is the latest in a series of blows to befall the land of cedars: the corona, the social crisis, and the human economic situation that has brought the country to the brink of insolvency. It is now hoped that in the context of the current catastrophe, the world will be involved in rehabilitation efforts. Promises are likely to be heard in the short term; It is not certain that in the long run they will have coverage.

This means that the crisis in Lebanon will deepen, and will not miss Hezbollah. The optimistic scenario is that a connection, albeit an indirect one, will be found between the organization and the explosion. And even if not, questions are likely to be asked in Lebanon: why is Hezbollah holding weapons among the civilian population, endangering it in another disaster.

It is doubtful whether this will lead Hezbollah to withdraw from its path. He swears and is committed to jihad. But Hassan Nasrallah is first and foremost a Lebanese patriot. Even before he goes to war, he will seek to protect the home, the family, the organization, the community and the state.

This means that after two tense weeks on the border in anticipation of Hezbollah's revenge on the death of its operative at Damascus airport, one can relax. The chances that the organization will risk entangling Lebanon in another fire are very slim. For Israel, this is good news, but temporary: Hezbollah will currently be preoccupied with itself and Lebanon's internal affairs, but sooner or later it will seek the opportunity to restore its status and the deterrence it has lost.