Eduardo Paladini
08/09/2020 - 16:26
- Clarín.com
- Politics
Not even the foam of the recent triumph reached Alberto Fernández. The first survey that measured the impact of the debt deal relegated the President to second place . For Argentines in general and for the voters of the Frente de Todos in particular, the one who best renegotiated with private creditors was the government of Néstor Kirchner. Consolation for Fernández: fourth figure Cristina.
The study was carried out by Trespuntozero , the consulting firm that best predicted the 2019 presidential election, in a context of widespread blunder. This is a survey of 1,000 cases online, in different parts of the country, between the 4th and 6th of this month.
The results, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1%, are detailed in a comprehensive 38-page report . They divide it into five chapters : socio-political climate, views towards the economy, views towards the debt, views towards the agreement with the bondholders and double click on Martín Guzmán. The main numbers of each.
Sociopolitical climate
- In 15 days, the approval of the government's discharge fell almost three points : from 59.1% to 56.2%. As other consulting firms show, after a peak of 78.1% in mid-April, the figures in this area are close to those prior to the pandemic.
- For the first time since the coronavirus arrived, in the study by the consultancy directed by Shila Vilker, those who ask to "take care of the economy" (51.8%) exceed those who ask to "take care of health" (45.5%). )
Looks towards the economy
- The main economic problems continue to be "unemployment" (27.1%) and "inflation" (23.9%). The first is the most elected among K voters and the second, among those of Together for Change.
Glances towards debt
- With 41.5%, the " Frente de Todos of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner" is the "most capable of solving the debt problem . " The variant "Together for the Change of Mauricio Macri, María Eugenia Vidal and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta" is second but far behind, with 19.3%. The most curious thing is that "Roberto Lavagna's Federal Consensus" came in fourth, with only 4.2%, despite the fact that he was the minister who renegotiated on behalf of Kirchner in 2005.
Trespuntozero national survey on the debt deal. August 2020.
- Regarding the "government that indebted the country the most ," leads "the government of Mauricio Macri ", with 41.5%; exactly the same percentage that had chosen the Frente de Todos as the best space to negotiate. The "government of Cristina" was second, with 28.8%. In these, as in almost all answers, the influence of the crack is seen .
Trespuntozero national survey on the debt deal. August 2020.
- One of the main curiosities appears when asking about the "governments that best managed the debt . " At a general level, "the government of Néstor Kirchner" (26.6), second "that of Mauricio Macri" (21.4%), third "that of Alberto Fernández" (17.5%) and fourth " of Cristina Kirchner "(8.8%).
Trespuntozero national survey on the debt deal. August 2020.
- When the cut is made among K voters , the three presidents linked to space maintain that order , with higher percentages: Kirchner 34.7%, Alberto F. 29.9% and Cristina 18.4%.
- Among the macristas , obviously Macri wins (48.2%), Kirchner is second (15.2%) and Alfonsín third (5.6%).
- On the other hand, 65.8% agree that " Argentina must grow economically in order to later pay the foreign debt."
Looks towards the agreement with the bondholders and Guzmán
- 61.4% believe that the agreement is between "good" and "very good" . Even among the macristas the news is mostly valued (51%).
Trespuntozero national survey on the debt deal. August 2020.
Trespuntozero national survey on the debt deal. August 2020.
- However, regarding the impact it will have on the economy, the result is distributed : 36.2% believe that "it will improve", 35.5% that "it will remain the same" and 19.4% that "It's going to get worse."
- There is also a duality regarding Guzmán . Although 55.5% consider their management to settle the debt between "good" and "very good", 49.6% say that it generates "little" and "nothing" of confidence as a minister.