Carlos Galvan
08/09/2020 - 16:02
- Clarín.com
- Politics
If the opposition remains in its thirteen and does not collaborate in the appointment of the new Attorney General of the Nation or, even, in the eventual appointment of new judges of the Supreme Court of Justice, the horizon of the ruling party looms complicated . Not even achieving a resounding electoral success throughout the country in next year's legislative elections, would Kirchnerism manage to get close to two-thirds of the Senate with its own troops.
This diagnosis is shared in the Casa Rosada and also in the block of the Front of All of the Senate.
What's more: in the ruling party, some observe that in reality the exit from the quarantine will be very dramatic and that this could play against them in the legislative elections. " Instead of adding, we could lose seats," reasons a senator who will have to renew his mandate next year.
But in the government they see that as highly unlikely. "We never believed it when the measurements said that Alberto (Fernández) had 90 positive image points. But amid the quilombo we continue with more than 50 points. I do not see a punishment vote in 2021," said a senior official.
And he added: " We are also going to launch a lot of productive measures to reactivate the economy."
Today, the Frente de Todos bloc in the Senate adds 40 votes (it would be 41, if José Alperovich from Tucumán was not on leave, who for now will not return to Congress).
It also has two allies, who usually accompany the ruling party in the votes: Alberto Weretilneck from Rio Negro and Magdalena Solari Quintana, a missionary .
Thus, and with all the planets aligned, it could add 43 votes with the current Senate composition. Together for Change has 29. Two-thirds are achieved with 48.
In the legislative elections of 2021, the Frente de Todos will put into play 15 of the 24 seats that must be renewed in the Senate. The remaining 9 belong to senators from Together for Change.
From the general review, it appears that even imposing itself by a wide margin in the election, the current ruling party would continue more or less with the same number of legislators.
Except for some alchemy that has not yet been launched, the Frente de Todos should lose at least one senator for Chubut . Today the three senators from that Patagonian province belong to the majority block.
Thus, even winning the election, it could happen that the ruling party loses a senator for Chubut and that Together for Change adds one.
Anabel Fernández Sagasti. The senator for Mendoza's term expires in 2021.
The opposition could eventually add one more for Corrientes. That province, governed by the radical Gustavo Valdés, has two Peronist senators and one opposition senator. Valdés will take advantage of the fact that next year's election is separated from the presidential one to stay with the two majority senators.
In Mendoza, on the other hand, the Frente de Todos will try to snatch one of its two senators from JxC. "The Casa Rosada is going to put all the aircraft carriers to win that election, " they anticipate in the ruling party.
The provinces that renew and that put three seats in play each are the following:
# Santa Fe. The terms of the Peronist Roberto Mirabella and the leader of La Cámpora María de los Ángeles Sacnun and the opposition Carlos Reutemann expire.
In speculation train, in the ruling party they assume that Mirabella (very close to Governor Omar Perotti) and "Marilín" Sacnun -one of Cristina Kirchner's favorites and also a beloved on the bench- would be the candidates for Santa Fe.
They will have to confront the Progressive Civic and Social Front led by the socialist Miguel Lifschitz and Together for Change (Carlos Reutemann's term expires, it is not clear if he will try to seek a new term or if he will directly retire). Lifschitz is the president of the provincial Chamber of Deputies and it is almost discounted that he will seek a seat in the Senate.
# Chubut: the terms of Alfredo Luenzo, Nancy González and Mario Pais expire. The three, as said, make up the All Front bloc.
In order to preserve all three, the following alchemy could occur. That Governor Mariano Arcioni articulate a space with the Renovation Front and bring his own candidates. In that space, Luenzo would fight to renew. The Front of All would go apart.
But there will be a third player: Together for Change. There are two candidates, the radicals Gustavo Menna and Mario Cimadevilla.
Catamarca: barring an electoral catastrophe, the Frente de Todos should retain its two senators - will former governor Lucía Corpacci be a candidate? - and Juntos por el Cambio, one.
# Cordoba. Today Juntos por el Cambio has two senators -Laura Rodríguez Marchado and Ernesto Martínez- and Peronism, one (Carlos Caserio).
In the province governed by Juan Schiaretti they say "There is no way to make any speculation at this time" and that " everything is dedicated to the pandemic at this time . " Beyond that, the legitimate thing would be for the governor to seek to have his own senators. The Front of All would go apart.
The third actor, strong in Córdoba, will be Together for Change.
# The Pampa. It has two official senators (Norma Durango and Daniel Lovera) and the historic radical Juan Carlos Marino. In that province, administered by Peronism since 1983, the only question is whether the new governor Sergio Ziliotto will not want the senators to be his terminals (Durango and Lovera were elected when the governor was Carlos Verna).
# Tucuman. It is a situation similar to the Pampas. Governor Juan Manzur would be inclined to have his people go to the Senate (now the senators for that province are José Alperovich and Marta Mirkin). Together for Change has a senator, Silvia Elías.
Miguel Lifschitz. The Santa Fe could be a candidate for the Senate in 2021.
# Currents. The PJ has two senators -the camper Ana Claudia Almirón and Carlos "Camau" Espínola- and Together for the Change to Pedro Braillard Poccard. As said, the radical governor Valdés will try to reverse the equation. Almirón runs with chances to renew. It is presumed that Espínola will have to fight with fellow Peronist Fabián Ríos.
#Mendoza. With two senators for JxC (the radicals Julio Cobosand Pamela Verasay) and a Cristinista (Anabel Fernández Sagasti) appears with an open ending.
The province is administered by the also radical Rodolfo Suárez. It was speculated that the head of the UCR, former governor Alfredo Cornejo, would seek a seat in the Senate, but he has so far rejected it.
If that happens, it would cost Cobos to renew. Not Verasay, in good harmony with Suárez and Cornejo.
Anabel Fernández Sagasti is directly put number . The senator, a member of La Cámpora, is a key part of Cristina Kirchner in the Senate.
All the reviews on the sand tables indicate the same result: Kirchnerism not even winning in the 8 provinces that renew senators will be able to approach two thirds.
The only way will be negotiating with the opposition. Something that for now does not appear possible, as they admit in the Front of All itself.
"Before rushing the process of the law, it should be negotiated with the opposition. Now they have closed a lot, " warns a senator whose mandate expires in 2021.