Political situation
Written by: Sha Ban Shan
2020-08-11 07:30
Last update date: 2020-08-11 07:30The issue of the "vacuum period" of the Legislative Council for the next year is unveiled today. If nothing happens, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will vote today (11th) to pass the final plan. The content will directly affect Hong Kong's political landscape and situation in the next year.
There is always a context in the world. Given that Hong Kong’s top priority is to fight the epidemic with one heart, it is estimated that Beijing will use the most "simple", least "shock", and most legally based way to deal with the issue of the Legislative Council vacuum period. According to this idea, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will directly issue the "decision." , Extending the term of the current Legislative Council from four to five years, and transitioning from the current class of 66 legislators. This has also solved the suspense of the outside world. The four current democratic legislators who were disqualified from the election by the Returning Officer will have the opportunity to "safely land" the transition.
Given that Hong Kong’s top priority is to fight the epidemic together, it is estimated that Beijing will use the most "simple" and least "shock" method to deal with the problem of the legislative council vacuum period.
If there is no accident, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will approve the plan for handling the "vacuum period" of the Hong Kong Legislative Council at noon today. There are only two directions speculated by the outside world. The first is to extend the current (sixth) Legislative Council for one year, and the second is to let the sixth legislative session "naturally die" and establish a one-year "transitional assembly" from October, that is, The "Provisional Legislative Council 2.0" referred to by the public.
The two plans have their own advantages and disadvantages, and legally, the Standing Committee of the People's Congress of the two plans has the right to decide. Outsiders generally assess that if the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress adopts the "Provisional Legislative Council 2.0" plan, as it is regarded as a new session, members must be appointed by Beijing, and the democratic "DQ4", namely the Civic Party Yang Yueqiao, Guo Rongkeng, Guo Jiaqi and the accountant Jie Liang Jichang, who was previously disqualified by the Returning Officer for running for the next Legislative Council, has greatly reduced his chances of a smooth transition.
However, in terms of the current situation, it is unlikely that the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will adopt "Provisional Legislative Council 2.0." The main reason is that Hong Kong’s current urgent task is for the whole society to fight the epidemic. It is estimated that in this context, the most logical approach of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress is to adopt the simplest, least volatile, and most legal-based method-directly The term of the Legislative Council has been extended by one year, and the term of incumbent members is automatically extended by one year. There is no question of reappointment, re-swearing, and whether DQ should be applied to certain members. Of course, whether the new Legislative Council will be shortened by one year to "4 changes to 3" after a year, or whether it will remain for 4 years, remains to be announced by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress.
For the democratic congressmen, if the "DQ4" can transition smoothly, there will no longer be the issue of the legitimacy of the "Provisional Legislative Council", and there will be less concern about being criticized for "abandoning colleagues", and the possibility of accepting the plan will be greatly increased. The adjournment of the Legislative Council election dispute may really come to an end.
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Legislative Council election 2020 National People's Congress
