Belarus moves

Protests in Minsk, Belarus, after the election results were known with a victory for Aleksandr Lukashenko.STRINGER / EFE

After the questionable elections last Sunday, President Alexandr Lukashenko maintains power in Belarus, although its legitimacy has been weakened and diminished by implausible official results. In these elections there were no independent international observers and journalists were victims of brutality suffered above all by citizens who demonstrated for democratic elections, not only in Minsk but also in small provincial cities. Belarus is economically dependent on Russia, which cut its subsidies in recent years, and is also Moscow's main political and military ally in Europe, despite Lukashenko's juggling to come forward as a referee and take advantage of Moscow and the West.

After the tensions during the elections (a citizenry eager for change and some military, police and security bodies that have responded well to the wishes of the leader, judging from what has been seen so far), Lukashenko's system is shaping up to be fragile and unstable. It is too early to know where the level of repression and resistance will stabilize, since the rejection of the people is still expressed in the streets and it remains to be seen if it also extends (and how) through factories and workplaces. What was clear on August 9 is that a new generation eager for freedom is asking for passage in Belarus.

Due to its strategic location on the border with a war scene (Ukraine), Belarus should inspire prudence and a sense of responsibility in the countries around it. The most likely today is that Russia and the West will maintain their positions and guide them (openly or not) towards the "autumn" of Lukashenko and his future and inevitable succession. This means that both Russia and the West will seek ways to strengthen their interests in Belarus and will do so with the instruments and groups of influence and pressure that both parties have.

The Belarusian army and security forces are closely linked to those of Russia. These sectors are quite opaque to the layman, but it is difficult to think that all the uniformed servants of the Belarusian state would gladly accept being absorbed by Russia, as some neo-imperialist sectors in Moscow would like. Moscow, for its part, does not seem willing to allow Belarus to go west, as some of the Baltic and Central European neighbors would like.

Finding the way out can be helped by a reform process from within Belarus and by constitutional changes (promised by Lukashenko) that will lead to a democratic division of powers. Such attempts exist and start from official means, but it will be necessary to see how far they go and if they have not already arrived too late.