The Dax is above the 12,700 point mark
Photo: Frank Rumpenhorst / picture alliance / dpaThe Dax should start trading on Monday with profits. Before the trading session, it is expected to be up 0.5 percent to 12750 meters. The leading German index had already risen slightly on Friday. Support comes from China. The price trend in China continues to point to an economic recovery. In July, for example, producer prices did not fall as sharply as in the previous months and consumer prices continued to rise. The producer prices fell compared to the previous year by 2.4 percent, as the national statistics office announced on Monday in Beijing. Consumer prices rose by 2.7 percent year-on-year. The two price data thus continue to recover from their respective corona lows in May and also turned out a little better than the experts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected.
So far, August has not lived up to its reputation as a bad month on the stock market. That could change, however, because the market has recently been increasingly focusing on risks. The number of people infected by the coronavirus is rising again worldwide. The conflicts between the two largest economies, the USA and China, are becoming more widespread and explosive. And the presidential election in the USA is associated with great uncertainty for market players.
In July, the Dax had reached 13,314 points, the highest level since the start of the global corona stock market crash. The leading German index had almost completely made up for this slump. But then the recovery rally that started in March ran out of steam. The mark of 12,800 meters was recently the highest of emotions, because of this resistance the stock market barometer had recently repeatedly failed.
Even the season of quarterly reports from listed companies, which is gradually coming to an end, could no longer give the market as a whole any momentum. Above all, the prospects for the rest of the year are too uncertain and prices had already recovered too strongly. "At the moment there is a lack of new buyers who come into the market at the current price level," stated analyst Thomas Altmann from asset manager QC Partners. The Dax is "looking for direction".
There has been headwind from the strong euro in recent weeks . The common currency rose against the US dollar by almost seven US cents since the beginning of July, its highest level in more than two years. This is a heavy burden for the DAX, which is peppered with numerous exporters, as the unfavorable exchange rates are likely to have a negative impact on the next quarterly reports. While the Dax was able to gain a good 2 percent in the phase of the rising euro, the US leading index Dow brought it to 6 percent.
But the strength of the euro is more like a weakness of the dollar. Because this also depreciates against other currencies such as the yen, Swiss franc and British pound. "The main reason for the dollar weakness is a sustained U-turn in US monetary policy," said Thu Lan Nguyen, Commerzbank currency expert. The Fed is likely to leave key interest rates at close to zero for the foreseeable future. This means that their monetary policy no longer differs from that of other important central banks. "In particular the European Central Bank," said the analyst.
Gold price comes under pressure after record run
The dollar gained, the euro was 0.6 percent weaker at 1.1800 dollars. The price of gold came under pressure on Friday afternoon, falling 1.5 percent to $ 2033 an ounce. The recovery of the dollar weighed on the price of the precious metal, said Carlo Alberto De Casa, market analyst at ActivTrades. "But investors are still hungry for gold." Silver also fell by more than 4 percent at times , after trading at $ 29.84 a troy ounce in the morning, the highest level it had since 2013 . The rally is being driven by speculation on production stoppages in silver mines and the recycling of used silver, said Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at brokerage firm CMC Markets.
Numbers from RWE and Telekom expected
If the good polls of the Democrat Joe Biden solidify in the race for the US presidency, the stock exchanges are also threatened with trouble from the political side. "The pendulum already seems to be swinging very strongly in favor of the Democrats. From a market point of view, this could mean unpleasant developments such as tax increases," said strategist Stefanie Holtze-Jen from asset manager DWS. The decision to vote out Trump in November is by no means certain.
Meanwhile, with a view to the annual reports in the new week, the music plays more in the second and third rows. From the Dax , latecomers like Deutsche Telekom and the electricity companies RWE (both on Thursday) and Eon (on Wednesday) are waiting with quarterly figures.
Oil prices hardly changed
Oil prices recovered somewhat. Most recently, a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent cost a little less than US $ 45. The price of a barrel of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil also rose slightly.
However, the recent rebound in oil prices may be exaggerated, according to observers. Commodity expert Eugen Weinberg from Commerzbank referred to concerns about too much supply on the oil market. The oil states grouped together in Opec + recently agreed to loosen their production limits a little from August.
la / mg / dpa-afx / Reuters
