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The situation in the morning: five reasons why Trump could still win

2020-08-12T04:10:27.769Z


Joe Biden chooses his vice presidential candidate with Kamala Harris - but shouldn't be too happy. What German schools could learn from abroad. Putin's vaccine, Lukashenko's inhumanity. That is the situation on Wednesday.


Kamala Harris, Biden's "Veep"

In June 2019 the second TV debate of the Democrats, threw Kamala Harris the then favorites Joe Biden with an emotional, hard attack off track , 'You attacked him because he had worked with racists. Now Biden has chosen Harris as his vice presidential candidate: a black woman, Democratic senator, longtime California attorney . With Harris, Biden didn't make a surprising or bold choice , but a solid one : during the Black Lives Matter protests, a large section of the grassroots would have criticized him if he had chosen a white woman.

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Kamala Harris in January 2019 on the launch of her presidential campaign

Photo: Elijah Nouvelage / REUTERS

At the same time, Harris is not a representative of the left-wing camp, from which Biden tries to stay away, but a representative of the center . If Mike Pence and Kamala Harris clash in the Vizes' only TV debate on October 7th, he'll have a hard time: she can be very aggressive.

Actually, Biden was always famous for his "gaffes", his missteps. But his election campaign has so far been characterized above all by the fact that he does not inspire, but also hardly makes any mistakes . This also applies to the choice of Harris.

  • Nomination of Kamala Harris: The Woman Who Doesn't Harm Him

How Trump can still win

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Donald Trump on election night 2016

Photo: CARLO ALLEGRI / REUTERS

At the moment there are many indications that Donald Trump will lose the election on November 3rd . The national polls have seen Biden around eight percent ahead of the president for two months. Even in states with many white workers, which Trump clearly won four years ago, Biden is consistently the clear favorite - in Wisconsin he has been at least five percent ahead since May. Nevertheless, caution is advised. Trump could still win the election for at least five reasons:

First of all, in US election campaigns it is traditionally the case that the race gets closer again shortly before election day, so Biden's lead will probably be even smaller - nationally, but also in the decisive swing states.

Second , the American electoral system is designed in such a way that Trump as a Republican has an advantage for structural reasons: If Biden is ahead by three or four percentage points nationally, Trump still has a good chance of winning by state thanks to the electoral system .

Thirdly , the number of postal votes will increase massively as a result of the pandemic - and this is a major factor of uncertainty: in the USA, more postal votes have already been declared invalid than those cast personally. In addition, Trump tries to question their legitimacy in general and to sabotage the reliability of the US Post on election day. A long legal battle could result.

Fourth , an unforeseen event could still turn the election upside down - a scandal, a terrorist attack, the pandemic, too, could weaken unexpectedly massively on election day, and the economy could pick up quickly.

And fifth , the polls could be completely wrong (although, contrary to popular belief, they weren't four years ago - the national polls were true, in some states they were wrong).

  • US Demoskop analyzes election chances: "A Trump victory would still be possible"

Why haven't Germany's schools learned anything?

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A classroom in Denmark

Photo: THIBAULT SAVARY / AFP

It is the start of school days in Germany. The country argues about masks, distance rules and other Corona measures in schools - because hardly anything is prepared anywhere. And because there are no uniform rules. As of today, things are going to start in North Rhine-Westphalia , the only federal state that requires a mask to be worn in class at all schools. Elsewhere it only applies to certain steps or only in the corridors, in some federal states singing together is prohibited, elsewhere it is permitted.

Not only is the federalist confusion astonishing - but also how little Germany has systematically taken into account the experiences of other countries . How not to do it is shown, for example, in Israel , where in May there were more than 200 infections immediately after the schools were reopened, especially at a high school. This showed that the risk of spreading is clearly higher among older students than among younger ones. Denmark and Norway , on the other hand, are positive examples: They initially only opened schools to younger children in April - and focused on distances between desks and on smaller classes, but not on masks. There were hardly any new corona cases in schools in the two Nordic countries.

  • Corona special route in NRW: How useful is the mask requirement for students?

Story of the day: autocrats and their vaccines

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The Russian vaccine

Photo: MINZDRAV / HANDOUT / EPA-EFE / Shutterstock

Tested on monkeys, the military and even on Putin's daughter: The news that Russia is approving an inadequately tested vaccine against Corona went around the world yesterday. What Putin is selling as a "Sputnik" moment is actually a high-risk game with people's health. My SPIEGEL colleagues have researched what is behind this: Not only Russia, but also China and India are skipping test phases in order to be ahead in the race for a vaccine. Researchers try drugs on soldiers - or even on themselves.

  • Race for corona vaccine: Putin dreams of the "Sputnik moment"

Winner of the day ...

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Svetlana Tichanovskaya in August after casting her vote

Photo: Sergei Grits / dpa

... is Svetlana Tichanovskaya , the Belarusian opposition presidential candidate who has presumably been cheated of her election victory . A video of her, which was distributed by the regime of the dictator Alexander Lukashenko, once again made the inhuman face of the regime clear: It shows Tichanovskaya reading from a sheet of paper in the office of the electoral authority. She calls on the Belarusians to obey the law, not to go into the streets and squares, and not to oppose the police.

She was obviously put under great pressure and the regime has been detaining Tichanovskaya's husband since May. After spending hours at the electoral authority, she went into forced exile in Lithuania. Tichanovskaya fulfilled her role - she was never a politician, but only ran after her husband was arrested. Nevertheless, the angry people in the country were able to agree on them. But the insurgents do not need a leader. Despite Tichanowskaja's departure and her video message, the democracy protests continued throughout the country from night to day.

Loser of the day ...

... is Andrej Hunko , the vice-leader of the left-wing parliamentary group in the Bundestag, who is not the first time to work as a dictator . Regarding the situation in Belarus, he said: "However, it is naive to believe that Lukashenko has no support because surveys among exiles suggest it." Hunko's main message in the face of the rigged election and the brutal crackdown on protests is that Lukashenko does have popular support. The statement joins his visit to the pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2015, which they used for propaganda purposes, and his eleven-day visit to Venezuela's autocrat Nicolas Maduro in 2019, who received him like a state guest. Thanks to the leadership of the SPD, the left can again hope for government participation this week - but the folkloric affection of the left for dictators who let their citizens starve (Maduro) or clump them together (Lukashenko) seems to be unbroken.

The latest news from the night

  • Reactions to Harris nomination: Prominent US Democrats applaud historic Kamala Harris decision. On the other hand, there was stinging criticism from the White House

  • Container terminal in Beirut back in operation after explosions: The logistics company Hapag-Lloyd has announced that the container terminal in Beirut will be returned to. The area is crucial for supplying the city

  • Facebook bans "Zwarte Piet" from platforms: It is "unacceptable that people feel discriminated against and unsafe by certain reports," said Facebook. Stereotypical representations of the controversial Nikolaus helper "Zwarte Piet" are forbidden from now on

The SPIEGEL + recommendations for today

  • There is not a single Covid-19 case on Sark: The island that Corona could not harm

  • Shopify boss Tobias Lütke: Who is the man behind the 100 billion start-up?

  • Drug boss "El Mencho" and his cartel: he is doing what even "El Chapo" shrank from

  • Midwife on cell phone use in the delivery room: The "smartphone generation" and their children

I wish you a good start to the day.

Your Mathieu von Rohr

Source: spiegel

All news articles on 2020-08-12

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