Special interviews
Author: Lin Leqian and Di Ziqian
2020-08-14 07:00
Last update date: 2020-08-14 07:00The Hang Seng Index Company will announce the results of the quarterly inspection after the market closes today (14th). The popular choice for dyeing blue is well known. Of course, two companies that have not yet dyed "ATM" are Meituan (3690) and Ali (9988). ). If there is an advance, there will be an out. What are the high-risk blue chips that are rejected?
The last 5 Hang Seng Index quarterly inspections have not changed, and the number of constituent stocks remains at 50. The last change was the quarterly review of the Hang Seng Index series as of December 31, 2018, when China Resources Power (0836) was replaced by Innovation Technology Industry (0669).
Today is about to usher in the results of a new quarterly review. The market is looking forward to which new economic stocks can be included, and will join hands with Tencent (700) to become the Hong Kong version of "FAANG". Stanley, Director of Research Department of Yaocai Securities, analyzes the possibility of the HSI quarterly inspection for everyone! He estimated that based on the past experience of the Hang Seng Index’s quarterly inspections, I believe that the chance of swapping for two is high, and the possibility of a third one is low, but he also has a "cold horse" in mind.
▼Stocks expected to be included in the Hang Seng Index▼
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Ali and Meituan have a 100% chance of being included!
Zhi Yaohui pointed out that the recent inclusion of the Hang Seng Index into the index benchmark has given "the green light" to "same shares with different rights" (W shares) and second-listed companies. Based on the market value of Alibaba (9988) and Meituan (3690), as well as their business uniqueness and daily turnover, Zhi Yaohui believes that they are not only the Top 10 in the Hong Kong stock market, but also the Top 3.
Although Alibaba and Meituan have been listed in Hong Kong for less than two years, according to the rapid inclusion criteria, the market value of the two is already the top company among the existing HSI constituent stocks, so they are no longer subject to this restriction. Zhi Yaohui believes that with the opening of the Hang Seng Index to include "same shares with different rights" and second-listed companies, the Hang Seng Index has made arrangements for more new economy companies to list in Hong Kong in the future!
Although Alibaba and Meituan have been listed in Hong Kong for less than two years, according to the rapid inclusion criteria, the market value of the two is already the top company among the existing HSI constituent stocks, so they are no longer subject to this restriction. (Profile picture)
Lenghou SMIC chips are representative
Although it is estimated that the Hang Seng Index will only "two in and two out" this quarterly inspection, Zhi Yaohui will comment on other "cold horses" for everyone. He believes that SMIC (0981) is more likely to be included in the blue chip company. One is that its trading volume is relatively high, and its chip research and development is representative in the mainland, and its business is relatively lacking among constituent stocks.
In contrast, Zhi Yaohui believes that other companies have a low chance of being included. Among them, WuXi Biologics (2269) has a brisk transaction and a market value of 200 billion yuan, but there are already two pharmaceutical stocks in the HSI constituent stocks. Medicine (1093) and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (1177), so the chance is not great.
Zhi Yaohui commented that it is expected to be included in the blue chip company. (01 drawing)
"ATMX" failed to "get together"
As for the frequently mentioned "ATMX", it is expected that the first three will join forces to become the three-headed carriage of the Hang Seng Index. However, for the last "X" (Xiaomi Group, 1810), Zhi Yaohui believes that the chance is even lower. This is because, strictly speaking, Xiaomi is not considered a new economic industry, but a traditional mobile phone manufacturing industry. "It is not much different from Lenovo, and the concept is nothing special."
The Hang Seng Index gave the green light to second-listed companies. In addition to benefiting from Alibaba, the market is also looking forward to the "dyeing blue" of JD (9618). However, the market value of JD.com is not as good as that of Ali, and the listing time is only two or three months. I believe it is still too early to be included in blue chips.
▼Shares that may be removed from the Hang Seng Index▼
Hang Lung believes that the chance of being kicked
However, there is a natural income. Although being removed from blue chips is not necessarily a bad thing, it also reflects that the scale and representativeness of individual shares may not be as good as other companies. Zhi Yaohui believes that the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index should cover different "spectrums." Among them, the nature of a number of real estate stocks is closer, and it is believed that their proportion will also decrease. Therefore, he estimated that Sino Land (0083) and Hang Lung Properties (0101) are more likely to be "kicked away", and Wharf Land (1997) has similar business nature and is equally likely.
In addition, he estimated that China Shenhua (1088) has a relatively high chance of being eliminated because the company has always been a traditional old economic industry, and coal stocks are not a market trend.
As for the blue-chip stock Swire A (0019) with the lowest market capitalization, Zhi Yaohui feels that the risk of being kicked is low because of its broader and diversified business scope, just like CKH Holdings (001). However, he said frankly that except for companies with the highest market value, other companies will only have a certain chance to be removed, but he also believes that the HSI may increase the number of constituent stocks of the HSI to more than 50.
Zhi Yaohui commented that it is expected to weed out blue chip companies. (01 drawing)
CICC: Increase the proportion of new economic stocks in the index
In addition, CICC issued a report on the Hang Seng Index quarterly inspection, giving "heart water". The bank expects Alibaba, Meituan Dianping, Anta Sports (2020), Alibaba Health (0241), WuXi Biologics, China Resources Beer (00291) Ranked in the forefront of selection of constituent stocks in the Hang Seng Index. The report pointed out that if Ali and Meituan can be included in the index, passive buying is expected to reach US$760 million and US$990 million, respectively.
CICC also expects that the shares that may be removed include China Shenhua, Swire A, Sino Land, Hang Lung Properties, China Want Want (0151) and New World Development (0017). At present, the financial sector accounts for 48% and 41% of the Hang Seng Index and the China National Index respectively. After this quarterly review, it is expected to increase the proportion of new economic stocks in the index.
Stanley, director of the research department of Yaocai Securities, estimates that based on past experience in the HSI quarterly inspection, it is believed that the chance of swapping in two, including Alibaba and Meituan, is less likely to have a third one, but He also has a "cold horse" in mind. (Provided by interviewee)
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