08/13/2020 - 23:42
- Clarín.com
- Opinion
Miguel Pesce, the head of the Central Bank, proposed to the President a drastic measure : eliminate the savings dollar and prohibit the free purchase of 200 dollars a month to treasure.
The monetary authority seeks to close the exchange rate as much as possible, to stop the continuous and dangerous drain of reserves.
Pesce, in the last board meetings, promoted the extreme measure. She said the tourniquet was necessary to prevent any devaluation attempt.
A secret report from the BCRA exposes the drama of the situation. In his text he states: savers threw themselves en masse to buy cheap tickets.
The "paper" ensures that the rate of purchases - between January and March - involved 500,000 savers. The confidential data states that in July there were 4 million people who bought savings dollars.
Available reserves (with gold and drawing rights) reach $ 10.7 billion. But the holding of banknotes is less: the freely available dollars reach only 5 billion.
The issue explains the tension in the exchange market: constant increases and the BCRA suffers a sustained daily drain.
From the Central Bank, Miguel Pesce proposed a move that could have a political cost.
Pesce discussed the matter privately with the President. It was a frank and warm meeting. He made a strong argument: He said that the meager dollars must be available for reactivation.
But - according to Clarín confirmed - Alberto Fernandez stopped the proposal in its tracks. The President affirmed that suspending the purchase of savings dollars has a strong and negative political price.
Martín Guzmán also expressed his opinion: he was against the BCRA. The head of the Treasury contradicted Pesce and warned that this extreme measure would overheat the financial dollar and make the parallel jump.
In Economics they have a “light” reading of the problem. Guzmán insists that the debt agreement will ease the bill. On Tuesday, Argentina raised the official payment proposal to the SEC.
This Thursday, in an exclusive seminar in Manhattan, the "wolves" of Wall Street said that the dollar is behind.
The conflict is open, because the currency drain is an activated time bomb . The IMF leadership has already warned of the problem. Washington bureaucrats have old and dangerous recipes.
In Mauricio Macri's last two years, emissaries Roberto Cardarelli and Alejandro Warner reinforced the serious problems that Cambiemos caused: they freed up the exchange market and everything jumped.
Both were displaced in Washington. Clarín confirmed that the new bureaucrats now agree to continue with exchange controls in Argentina.
Luis Cubeddu and Julia Kozack - the new IMF auditors - maintained contact with Argentine bankers. The couple spoke of Alberto's stinging currency problem.
Also, the total imbalance of the macroeconomic variables. In that intimacy, Cubeddu made a transcendent definition of the dollar. This was stated: "At the IMF we are convinced that in Argentina, for many years there must be control and no free exchange market ."
For businessmen, the economy faces a "perfect storm."
The announcement of the local manufacture of the Covid vaccine generated relief in the UIA : it opens a hope, after the tsunami of uncertainties.
Confidentially, it is known that the first doses would be in October: if it works, production could be normalized at the beginning of the year.
The negotiation of the agreement began three months ago. Agustín Lamas, AstraZeneca's CEO for Latin America, was in charge.
Lamas, Tony Slim - the son of the Mexican magnate - and the Argentine Hugo Sigman shaped the transcendent agreement.
The agreement is totally private . Ginés González García was an emissary to transmit a political message: the interest of the Casa Rosada to ensure supply.
The issue was closed a month ago. Lamas went to Olivos and spoke alone with Alberto. Sigman had a transcendent role. He has a direct dialogue with the President and both spoke - on Wednesday - before the announcement.
The Argentine Agroindustrial Council tries to travel that road. The proposal is the only and concrete of the business movement. But the move has turbulences : the Rural Society questioned its approach to Cristina Kirchner.
The meeting with the vice president was organized by the Christian senator María de los Angeles Sacnun. It was a bold move.
Cristina surprised them when she learned about the plan and softened them from the start: "Let's take off our chinstrap, because we look like criminals ."
There was a nervous laugh. José Martins, Roberto Domenech and Gustavo Idigoras were surprised by another theory of the vice president: "For me, the virtue of Argentine intelligence is linked to the consumption of beef ."
The plan is ambitious. But first you must overcome internal conflicts.
The trio that leads the Council says that Rural is opposed, because in traditional society there is a militant ideological attitude in favor of macrismo. Former minister Luis Etchevehere has a strong influence.
Etchevehere maintains that the proposal is not naive: it seeks to reimplant profits for the oil companies that Mauricio Macri eliminated, for 500 million dollars.
The former minister points to the oil producer Roberto Urquía. And he shoots Miguel Acevedo, head of the UIA, by elevation.
In the Agroindustrial Council they strike back: they say they are lies of the politicking. There is also a fierce intern in Rural itself. In September, authorities are elected and two lists compete: Daniel Pellegrina seeks reelection and Nicolás Pino - his current vice-president - wants to unseat him.
The election of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) turned into another conflict for Argentina. Alberto Fernandez chose a path of no return: the Casa Rosada is betting that Donald Trump loses the election.
It is explicit. This is a high risk play . Trump is far behind in the polls, but nothing is certain in the now-unpredictable America.
In total minority - with Chile, Costa Rica and Mexico - Alberto seeks to postpone the election at the IDB and frustrate the nomination of Mauricio Claver-Carone.
The thesis is as follows: if Trump loses, the US candidate falls and Gustavo Béliz has a chance again. The offensive contradicts the search for support in Washington. It is irreconcilable, with the millionaire hiring of lobbyist Thomas Shannon for the US to help Argentina in the IMF.