Galia Ackerman is a historian and translator, specializing in the countries of the former USSR and central Europe. She has notably published The Immortal Regiment, Putin's Sacred War (Premier Parallel, 2019) and Traverser Chernobyl ( Premier Parallèle, 2016).
FIGAROVOX. - President of Belarus since 1994, Alexander Lukashenko was re-elected for his sixth term on August 9, with more than 80% of the vote. His fifth re-election is contested and has given rise to nights of clashes between police and demonstrators. How do you explain that the revolt is only happening today?
ACKERMAN Gala. - For more than twenty years, Lukashenko has banned several NGOs and resorted to targeted assassinations. Civil society is therefore very weak in Belarus.
The wave of protest in the country was caused by the mismanagement of the Covid. Lukashenko refused to acknowledge the reality of the spread of the virus and proclaimed that it was enough to work well and have a healthy lifestyle to avoid contamination. Even Vladimir Putin, who was determined to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II, postponed the military parade and canceled the civil march. Lukashenko, on the other hand, maintained them. Within this paternalistic state, this decision disappointed a lot. The people expected the protection of their leader.
In independent polls, carried out before the Belarusian presidential election, Lukashenko was credited with 3% of voting intentions. His main rival, Viktor Babariko, manager of a Russian bank, was arrested, along with twenty other people, found guilty of “financial embezzlement”. A malfeasance which would concern the equivalent of 60 million dollars in bank securities. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya took over in opposition, but she could not lead the crowds like him.
The accumulation of these elements has led to the torrent of demonstrations that we know.
Will the opposition manage to influence the situation, when their candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, has left the country to take refuge in Lithuania?
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya took over from her husband, a famous Belarusian blogger, opposed to Lukashenko. He is now locked in by power. As for Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, she had to leave Belarus for Lithuania and withdrew from political life, under threats from the Belarusian KGB.
Once the discontent awakens, I don't think he can die anymore. The diet will fall sooner or later.No internet and no structured movement, there is no chance that a movement without a leader , with such severe repression and mass arrests, can withstand longer. The calm has already partly returned. But, once the discontent awakens, I don't think he can die anymore. The regime will fall sooner or later; it is almost certain that there will not be a seventh term for Lukashenko.
“We will not abandon the country to you. Independence is expensive, but it is worth the cost, ” launched Alexander Lukashenko on August 4 during his speech to the nation, clearly targeting Russia. The Kremlin leader did not react to the harsh criticism of the Belarusian president and even congratulated him on his victory. How do you explain Putin's position?
Putin congratulated the Belarusian president on his re-election, but in a rather cold manner. For her part, the Russian spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was much more severe on these allegations. Russia denies interfering.
Putin wants a state of union between Russia and Belarus, supposed to lead to a gradual "merger"In reality, Vladimir Putin wants a state of union between Russia and Belarus. He hopes for a supranational union, which is supposed to lead to a gradual "merger" between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. If the conflagration continues and Lukashenko falls, the Russians will be able to impose their candidate very easily.
The European Union, for its part, threatened to take sanctions, in a declaration approved by the 27 member states. Should we expect a clash between two blocs, opposing the European Union and Russia, on this question of Belarus?
No one is going to accuse Russia of interference. But if the European Union imposes sanctions on Belarus, that will force Lukashenko to accept the deal with Russia.
Poland and Lithuania, border countries and historically close to Belarus, are trying to give Lukashenko a way out.Poland and Lithuania, border countries and historically close to Belarus, are trying to give Lukashenko a way out. These countries invited him to turn to Europe and submit to its laws. If Lukashenko deserves the sanctions for his treatment of the presidential election, the border countries know that these sanctions by the European Union will necessarily cause a new rapprochement of Minsk with Russia.
Whatever happens, Russia will be the winner of this story; either the demonstrations will force Lukashenko to withdraw from power, thus leaving the way open to Putin; Either Lukashenko holds his own, but to succeed in governing, under pressure from the population and the European Union, he will have to accept aid from the East.