Julio Algañaraz
08/15/2020 - 14:16
- Clarín.com
- World
The situation worsens in this tremendous pandemic summer in Italy, which was the worst hit country in Europe and managed to become the most virtuous with quarantines, effective restrictions and a good health system.
He managed to contain the cataract of deaths that today total 35,424 and it was expected that the heats would crush the spread curve of the coronavirus. But the cold of autumn-winter is approaching and experts raise the alarms.
“I am not optimistic. It seems clear to me that in 10 or 20 days we will reach a thousand positive cases per day, ”says Andrea Crisanti, a microbiologist from the University of Padua, one of the most famous scientific protagonists in this era of the coronavirus.
In the last two weeks the worst increase in infections has been registered , returning to the numbers for May .
There were 574 new positives on Friday, similar to the 593 on May 28, when the third month of the epidemic ended and the wave of pestilence began to subside. And this Saturday the infections were 629, the first time that it exceeded 600 daily.
A street in the historic center of Noli (in Liguria Genova), this Saturday, without a mask. Photo: Victor Sokolowicz
The deaths this Friday were only three, because the deaths indicate patients who were infected more than a month ago, when a part of the scientists affirmed that the virus was losing ferocity and was fading.
The immunologist Crisanti was the protagonist of fierce controversies against that line and said that the virus was always the same. Crisanti is the "hero" of the Veneto region because he promoted controls with swabs and blood tests to as many people as possible, as well as the follow-up of those infected to assist those who had become ill and did not know it. This strategy saved many lives.
Those who claimed that "the virus no longer exists", he liquidates them by assuring that "they have caused enormous damage." And sentence: "Unfortunately we see increasing, day by day, patients in intensive care in Italy."
Crisanti explains that "unfortunately the dynamics of the epidemic is clear, the rate of growth is constant and it is unlikely that it will be able to stop it . "
Beaches packed with tourists
Millions of Italians celebrate this weekend the "Ferragosto", the fairs of Augustus, which mark the culmination of summer.
The beaches and mountains are full of vacationers , who contrast with the desolate emptiness that art cities such as Rome, Florence, Venice, Milan, Naples, Turin, Genoa and the others that contain the heart of Italian civilization, orphans of millions of foreign tourists.
In Rome and its region, Lazio, the infections that at the beginning of this week were eleven have doubled. On Friday there were 45. Half were Italian vacationers in the four countries indicated as risky: Spain, Greece, Malta and Croatia.
No chinstrap or social distance on a beach in Spotorno, Genova. Photo: Victor Sokolowicz
The picture is the same in the other Italian regions. And until Friday, the controls were still not working at airports, ports and entering Italy by land. 12,000 Italians still circulate in the four countries.
On Friday there were 5,000 calls to the assistance center, asking to do the control swabs. Concerns increase among those who traveled happily and did not deprive themselves of anything on the beaches and nightclubs, and those who see that thousands of infected newcomers circulate in the twenty regions of the country, increasing the risks that the coronavirus surge will turn into another time in the sanitary Tsunami that sowed dead and sick people who had a very bad time, with inevitable lung sequelae.
Younger patients
Ferragosto is the week with the highest tourist influx. The epidemiologist Pierluigi Lopaldo, head of the health task force of the Puglia region, in the south, a favorite of so many tourists, said that if the increase in youth infection continues, which has lowered the average age of patients from 61 to 40 years, one part "will become seriously ill."
In Puglia there are five patients between 20 and 30 years old in critical conditions in intensive care.
The Higher Institute of Health shows that a good part of the new positives to the Corvid-19 infection "are less than 40 years old."
Lopaldo points out that the main problem this August is the underestimation of the coronavirus by young people . "They are the ones who are now helping to spread the virus."
The summer scene has dance as its main protagonist. In open places, because the closed rooms have been in quarantine since the beginning of March.
"Under the starry sky", says the publicity spread in the four countries that have concentrated the trips of thousands of young Italians. The "freedom for all" is included in how cheap is the "all included".
An employee takes the temperature of a young man before entering a nightclub in Rome, this Friday. Photo: EFE
Even beaches and especially outdoor dances without distance restrictions, face mask and “cheek to cheek” squeezes , specifically prohibited by some regions in Italy.
The Governor of Calabria, Jole Santelli, made a drastic decision. Dances were banned until September. The other regions apply less harsh measures because the tourist season demands it and the need of many politicians not to lose popularity.
The Venetian microbiologist spoiler Andrea Crisanti replies: “I am sorry for the entrepreneurs and those who work. But open-air discos must be closed immediately. You have to give them financial aid, but the discos should not work ”.
Crisanti proposes a chilling scientific explanation: “In the first place, it is very difficult to maintain social distancing. In addition, the activity in a disco increases deep breathing, people go anaerobic, they move, they need to breathe much more. All this facilitates infections ”.
The nightlife of young people, one of the concerns of doctors in the face of the outbreak of the coronavirus. Photo: EFE
This Saturday of Ferragosto, two great bailongos were closed early . One in Costonacita, in Sicily, where 800 young people were caught wagging without their masks on. The other in Viroliano, in the northern region of Piedmont, for various security violations, first of all lack of respect for distances and little use of mandatory masks .
In the last two weeks , 137 new sources of contagion were added in Italy , which were added to the more than 900 existing ones. They are all under control, but the problem is that they grow and grow. When do you have to worry, Professor Crisanti?
"We will have the breaking point when the outbreaks by size and by number will exceed the capacity of the health system," answers the veneto microbiologist.
“It will go from spotlight transmission to diffuse transmission. I'm sorry but at this point it will be clear that the areas in which this will occur should be closed immediately. There will be no alternatives to local quarantines ”, he warns.
Crisanti criticizes the government for “having been wrong in not foreseeing gradual reopening, different from region to region. In addition, the pants were lowered in the face of the demands of the tourist industry. It was necessary to limit movement within Italy, but also between Italy and other European countries ”.
Rome, correspondent
CB
