SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz: would he also govern with the FDP and the Greens?

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Olaf Scholz, Federal Minister of Finance and nominated Chancellor candidate of the SPD: "I do not suffer from exclusivity"

For the SPD, it is a signal that should stir up hope. After Olaf Scholz was nominated as candidate for chancellor, the party climbed in the Sunday trend of the Kantar opinion research institute for "Bild am Sonntag" to 18 percent, an increase of three percent compared to the previous week.

It is not enough for a government majority led by the SPD. However, there are still 14 months until the general election. Scholz, the hiker and jogger, has to run long distances.

But it is also likely to be decisive for voters which party constellation should make them head of government. "I don't suffer from exclusionary disease," said Scholz in an interview with SPIEGEL. This was to be understood primarily as an announcement for a possible red-red-green alliance. There are enough advocates in the party for such a coalition, which was categorically excluded by the SPD for a long time.

But there is also a second power perspective for the SPD, which Scholz could promote to the Chancellery and which has so far been little discussed. It would suit the pragmatist from Hamburg even better: the traffic light coalition, an alliance with the Greens and the FDP. For the FDP in particular, the government option is attractive, if not bitterly necessary. Now that the Union is looking more and more towards a coalition with the Greens, in which the FDP could no longer be used due to the polls, the traffic light would be the opportunity to continue to play.

FDP parliamentary group vice demands rejection of the Left Party

The polls do not yet reveal such a majority, and the FDP even has to fear that it will be returned. But because so much is not yet certain - such as the candidates for chancellor of the Union and the Greens - there is still a lot to be done. And if you ask around among SPD and FDP politicians, you will see that the traffic light would certainly have opportunities - but also hurdles.

"A lot is conceivable with Mr Scholz as a conversation partner, but his party would have to conclude the coalition agreement. However, it wants new and higher taxes, the implicit national debt to increase at the expense of the younger generation and is far from being part of the reality of the digital knowledge economy in terms of labor law", says, for example, the parliamentary manager of the FDP parliamentary group, Marco Buschmann, to consider. These are "demanding content-related challenges".

The FDP parliamentary group vice Michael Theurer recalls the successful coalitions under Helmut Schmidt and Willy Brandt, but also calls for Scholz to reject red-red-green: "Chancellor candidate Scholz has to say clearly today rather than tomorrow that he is not can be elected Chancellor with the votes of the SED heirs. The FDP is by no means the stirrup holder for a left alliance. "

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Marco Buschmann (FDP): "With Mr. Scholz as a conversation partner, a lot is conceivable."

The Lower Saxony FDP general secretary and member of the Bundestag Konstantin Kuhle says: "For a traffic light perspective with Olaf Scholz, the decisive factor is whether the Social Democrats' program emerges in the dream world of Sakskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans or whether there is pragmatism in view of the dramatic economic situation in Germany and enforce realism. "

Kuhle also recalls the state election of 2015, when Scholz decided against a coalition with the FDP and instead opted for red-green in Hamburg. "Olaf Scholz is difficult to assess for the FDP."

The FDP politicians also refer to Rhineland-Palatinate, where the traffic light coalition has been largely silent since 2016. Corresponding tones can also be heard from there. "I am surprised that this coalition option has not been discussed more intensively in Berlin so far," says the SPD parliamentary group leader from Rhineland-Palatinate, Alexander Schweitzer. "A proper social, economic and ecological policy is being made here. The traffic light coalition should also be an option for the federal level."

The SPD does not want to rule out such a coalition at the federal level either. The traffic light is "always a conceivable option", says the SPD parliamentary group vice-president Dirk Wiese and Thomas Oppermann says: "Coalitions will only be decided after the election. After three grand coalitions, however, it would be time to switch back to normal mode" said the Vice President of the Bundestag. "The SPD must by no means be fixated on red-red-green, but must also keep the option open for a left-bourgeois traffic light coalition that defends liberal democracy and promotes the ecological and economic modernization of Germany."

Traffic light coalition only with Scholz

Even from left-wing parties there are positive words: "There are commonalities in civil rights issues or in foreign policy. We shouldn't rule out such a coalition after the election if the election result could make it possible," says the SPD parliamentary group leader from Schleswig-Holstein, Ralf Stegner. He still considers a red-red-green coalition to be more likely. "First and foremost, of course, we have to get stronger ourselves - but these discussions show that the beginning with OIaf Scholz was a success," says Stegner.

There is no automatism with a corresponding majority, as all sides emphasize. In Schleswig-Holstein, for example, a traffic light coalition could not come together, instead Jamaica is now governing there, i.e. the CDU, FDP and the Greens.

The Greens also have a say. The EU MP and ex-state politician from Schleswig-Holstein, Rasmus Andresen, is already waving his hand. "So far I can not see that the Lindner-FDP provides answers to the crucial questions of our time, such as how we deal with the climate crisis or the economic crisis that is just beginning," said Andresen. "A closer cooperation with the FDP is therefore not particularly likely based on today's security."

One thing, so it was at least heard from most of the Social Democrats and Liberals, applies in any case: Neither the FDP nor the SPD is interested in helping the Greens to become chancellor with the traffic light. So if the Greens are in front of the SPD on election evening, the traffic lights have only a slim chance. If, it is said, then only with Scholz.