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Elections have been, for years, the main source of political destabilization in Venezuela. This paradox illustrates the seriousness of the institutional crisis in the country and shows that the terrain of confrontation has transcended the channels of normality. The gap between the Government of Nicolás Maduro and the opposition to Chavismo has now deepened due to the call without consensus of some legislatures that will renew the National Assembly, dominated by the forces that support Juan Guaidó, who refuse to participate. The appointment, set for December 6, also involves bodies such as the European Union and the Catholic Church, which despite mediation attempts have not yet achieved a rapprochement between the parties.
Before each vote, the script is repeated: the regime designs elections controlled by the Chavista apparatus, and the opposition parties refuse to participate due to the lack of guarantees. Added to the permanent economic upheaval for months has been the coronavirus health emergency and the paralysis of the country, which is heading towards a dead end. Brussels, however, gave an important signal last week. In other words, despite deep pessimism, the European Union has not yet given everything lost.
Josep Borrell, high representative for Foreign Affairs, established contacts with leaders of Chavismo and the opposition to try to agree on minimum conditions and call elections that are accepted by all. The head of European diplomacy informed the Government of the minimum requirements set by the opposition. According to a statement from his office, it was about the review of the National Electoral Council - appointed in June, unilaterally, by the Supreme Court of Justice close to the ruling party - of "the participation on an equal footing of all political parties and of its leaders whose disqualification and persecution must cease, as well as international electoral observation ”.
However, the possible mediation has remained for the moment in an umpteenth frustrated attempt. On August 2, most of the opposition forces, a bloc of 27 organizations, many of them with a testimonial presence, announced their rejection of the electoral process. Given that decision, Borrell concluded "that the conditions are not met, at this stage, for a transparent, inclusive, free and fair electoral process." As an alternative route, the high representative proposes to the parties to extend the terms of an election already scheduled for this year, but which is preparing against the clock, amid the pandemic, with infections in full growth and a collapsed health system.
That possibility, even claimed by anti-Chavez sectors that in recent months have been critical of the strategy of Guaidó and Leopoldo López, such as former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, would give extra time to achieve better conditions. Even so, the environment of the head of Parliament, recognized as interim president by almost 60 countries, wants to start from scratch. That is, first with the appointment of the electoral authority by the National Assembly, as established by the Constitution. Second, by once again recognizing the leaders and candidates of three of the main opposition forces de facto dismantled by justice: Democratic Action, First Justice and Popular Will. And third, with the organization of presidential elections in the medium term to resolve the institutional crisis that originated in 2018, when Maduro was re-elected in elections that his rivals do not recognize as fraudulent.
According to Brussels, the Venezuelan Foreign Minister, Jorge Arreaza, informed them of the willingness to accept an extension of the deadlines, according to a sector of the opposition. However, for Borrell it would not be a sufficient concession for the European Union to deploy an electoral observation mission thus endorsing the call. "For this, we need a precise and broadly positive response to the minimum requirements defined by the opposition." The game is still stalled, so the diplomat will convene a new meeting of the so-called International Contact Group sponsored by the EU, which was also recently joined by Argentina.
"Until the last moment"
Despite the difficulties, in short, international actors have not given up looking for a way out. "We think that it is necessary to encourage the Venezuelan parties to be able until the last moment to see if these elections can be held in democratic conditions, and we want to privilege that above all else," said the Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Arancha this weekend. González Laya, during a visit to the Dominican Republic, reports Efe.
Maduro has been trying since September last year to build a more docile opposition, almost tailor-made, and for now he has succeeded with a minority sector meeting at the National Dialogue Table. In this instance, some parties agreed to a rapprochement with the regime, while the negotiation sponsored by Norway and Barbados with the representation of Guaidó collapsed. A diplomatic mission sent by Oslo traveled again to Caracas at the end of July to study whether the conditions exist to rehearse a negotiation. But the opposition leader ruled out this possibility outright and made the dialogue subject to holding "free and fair" elections.
In recent days, the Catholic Church has also entered the equation again. The Venezuelan Episcopal Conference harshly criticizes the Government for closing the door to a fair competition, but also questions without nuances the attitude of the opposition and its decision to abstain. “This is not enough. They must assume the responsibility of looking for solutions and proposals for the people who have believed in them for years, since the mere abstention will make the deep political-social fracture in the country grow and the hopelessness for the future ”, the Venezuelan bishops point out. "Not participating in the parliamentary elections and the call for abstention leads to immobilization, the abandonment of political action and renouncing to show one's own strength," concludes the episcopal conference.
However, Guaidó opts to play short-term by reiterating his refusal to participate in elections that would mean the end of his term in Parliament and the institutions would separate him. And as always they wield their main support, that is, the international community. “The farce called by the dictatorship to try to usurp Parliament has already been defeated politically and internationally. Today our decision is accompanied by countries in Europe, America, Asia and Oceania and bodies such as the European Union, the Lima Group and the Contact Group, ”he said on Friday on his social networks. That backing is important, but it has not yet found a way out. The paralysis continues while everyone also has their eyes set on the presidential elections in the United States, an appointment as always decisive for the definition of the political equilibrium in the region.
Almost half, willing to vote without Guaidó
A survey carried out in July by the Andrés Bello Catholic University, a private center, and the Delphos firm shows that the majority of Venezuelans continue to favor the vote in the December legislative elections, even though they negatively rate the referee, the National Electoral Council, and be wary of that organism. According to the opinion study, 62.3% believe that the opposition should participate and 46.6% of anti-Chavista voters would go to the polls even if Juan Guaidó, president of Parliament, finally does not participate. Only 35.4% of those surveyed would be willing to protest as a tool of resistance to achieve a change of government. But that route was not only not the main option encouraged by the opposition leaders, especially during the past year and it did not work, but now, with strict containment measures due to the coronavirus and an uncertain horizon of evolution of the pandemic, it would be a dubious and probably doomed strategy.