Political situation
Written by: Lin Jian
2020-08-17 21:31
Last update date: 2020-08-17 21:31The current Legislative Council has been postponed for one year. Recently, the two major camps of the democrats have had a major debate over whether to stay in the parliament for the next year. In recent days, a large number of people from the local/protestant faction demanded the general resignation of the democrats/boycott the parliament. They believed that the extension of the parliament lacks authorization, and agreeing to extend the term is equivalent to accepting "Zhaoan"; however, some pan-democrats currently have reservations about this. The former chairman of the Democratic Party, He Junren, and political scholar Cai Ziqiang, all believe that the proponents have not been able to clearly explain the line of the democratic movement after the resignation. After the democrats held a meeting today (17th), more congressmen tended to stay behind.
"Hong Kong 01" reporter learned from many politicians and scholars, trying to disassemble the political game and operation behind this controversy, and understand the ideas of all parties. Among them, Yuan Michang, an honorary lecturer in the Department of Politics and Public Administration of the University of Hong Kong, believes that the protesters keep demanding the general speech of the democrats. The focus is not necessarily on the actual effect of the general speech itself, but an internal "power seizure" operation. "Clip" the traditional pan-democratic rhetoric, challenging the latter’s recognition within the democrats, and thus gaining the dominance of the democratic movement. Regarding this point, starting from the Umbrella Movement in 2014, it seems that it has gradually become a mainstream of the "game" within the democrats...
The wave of withdrawal in 2015 was a precursor to the "grab of power" within the democrats. (Profile picture)
Seems familiar with the "power seizure" model? Demolition of the big platform, withdrawal of the United Nations, initial test cry
To understand the true meaning of this "game of power", one must first understand the evolution of the democratic political sector. During the 2014 Umbrella Movement, Admiralty's "big platform", dominated by the Federation of Students and the traditional pan-people, was regarded as a symbol of peace and justice, and people who resisted the escalation of actions and rejected radical lines came to the stage to speak. Some people from the local faction were dissatisfied. They launched operations to "dismantle the big platform" and "grab microphones." By November 30, the upgrade failed and the umbrella movement ended in clearing. Zhou Yongkang, then secretary-general of the Federation of Students, made controversial remarks. The mainstream of the younger generation, "local villages" have emerged in many colleges and universities, and some people have launched a "withdraw from the Union". Eventually, the Hong Kong University, PolyU, HKBU, and City University students will withdraw from the ACSF.
In fact, at the time, there were also older generations of pan-democrats who questioned the question of "withdrawing from the ACSF, then what?", that is, those who advocated quitting could not accurately tell the direction of the democratic movement after the withdrawal, just like today's protesters are questioned. However, many pro-democracy and local factionists analyzed to the reporter of "Hong Kong 01" that the focus of the withdrawal action on that day was not necessarily an immediate effect, but by pulling the student federation/traditional pan-democrats from the core of the democratic movement. Letting the local faction and the brave/radical line behind it be the masters of the democratic faction can be regarded as a kind of "power seizure" with some hostile elements, and it is in the same line as the "demolition of the big platform" operation.
Yuan Michang : Populist Framework Operation
Yuan Michang, a scholar, specializes in the study of political strategy and the development of populism in various places. He agreed with the above interpretation, and pointed out that this is a typical populist operation, which exists in all countries in the world: "After the 2008 financial crisis, a populist trend has emerged around the world. One of the operations is anti-traditional and anti-elite. They will use some Very pleasant, but not necessarily political slogans with actual content to challenge the status of traditional elites. Hong Kong is no exception. It is particularly obvious from the beginning of the Umbrella Movement. The real challenge of radical factions is the elites in the opposition camp, namely the pan-democratic party. "
Yuan Michang added that the policy propositions of the so-called "populism" factions are not necessarily wrong. For example, the local factions require local people to give priority to people's livelihood issues and resource allocation, which is quite normal. It's just that in terms of political style, they are more ruthless against people of similar lines than against the opposite camp. He pointed out: "For democrats, maximizing the spectrum is most beneficial to them, but some people may put the interests of their own factions above the overall situation. They do not necessarily have conflicting routes, they will feel that have conflict."
Yuan Michang analyzed the political considerations behind the Zongci proposal. (Data Picture/Photo by Yu Junliang)
The DQ line redraws the political map to "freeze" the political metabolism
This "power seizure" route reached its peak in 2016. In the riots in Mong Kok on the first night of the Lunar New Year, the then local democratic frontline spokesperson Liang Tianqi was an instant hit. He won more than 60,000 votes in the New Territories East Legislative Council by-election. The line of local and armed resistance represented by him is unique among the democrats. , To change the composition of Hong Kong’s entire political sector, Liang himself called the "three-part world." At the same time, the source of votes for the traditional pan-people has also shrunk in response to the rise and attacks of local factions. However, in the Legislative Council election in the same year, many local factions including Liang Tianqi was elected to the DQ, and two elected local factions, namely, the Youth New Deal Liang Songheng and You Huijia, were also accused of not meeting the requirements of the oath. They were filed and triggered the NPC interpretation. After being disqualified as a member of Parliament, the local faction fell silent for a while in politics. Later, the government further widened the front to the self-determination faction, and Liu Xiaoli, Luo Guancong and others were disqualified as members.
According to an analysis by a local faction, the SAR and the Beijing government initially only aimed at the local and self-determined factions. Behind it was a very far-sighted consideration: Democrats will become more and more radical and towards "Greater China" as the generations change. Consciousness has become weaker, and the threat to Beijing has become more and more serious. If they succeed in "seizing power" to dominate the democrats, the situation in Hong Kong will get out of control more and more. Drawing the DQ red line can prevent these new generations from gaining seats, gaining the right to speak and resources within the system, thereby freezing the "natural metabolism" of the democrats. The traditional pan-democrats remain in the parliament, and the objective effect not only makes the two factions easy to divide, but also stifles the threatening extreme radicals in the bud. This strategy of "tolerating one faction and combating one faction" will work until 2019.
The rise of Liang Tianqi in 2016 once changed the local political landscape. The local faction tried to replace the pan-people and seize the dominance of the democratic movement, but after the DQ incident, the local faction fell silent for a while. (Profile picture)
The best time for the protesters to seize power with the momentum of the primary election
However, in 2019, a wave of legislative amendments broke out, which caused the traditional pan-democrats and the locals to unconsciously move closer to each other (later the term "protest" was derived, which refers to people who advocate various fierce struggles, and now includes the locals in the general sense. The pro-democracy party has derived the idea of "brothers climbing the mountain" and "no separation of seats". Even the two major parties of democracy and citizens agree with the behavior of resistance. Because of this, the street protests lasted for more than half a year and could not be stopped. Democrats overwhelmingly defeated the establishment in the district council elections at the end of last year.
Until this year, the protesters have won the primary elections of the democratic parties, and they are flourishing. However, the sudden third wave of the epidemic caused the postponement of the Legislative Council election, and the sixth parliament was postponed for one year, including four current members who had been disqualified from running for election. According to the analysis of the local faction, Beijing maintains the status quo of the current parliament. It has great political skills to bring the traditional pan-democracy and the protesters into a strategic trap. On the one hand, the two factions temporarily lose their common opponent of the establishment, and the contradiction is transferred to Internal lines are divided; on the other hand, it can also prevent the protesters from taking advantage of the primaries and becoming the mainstream of the democrats, causing the situation to get out of control. (However, the establishment veteran Jasper Tsang did not agree that Beijing had political calculations. He pointed out that deferring all members to one year is the only feasible way from a legal point of view, and there is no better choice.)
Yuan: Panmin is in a dilemma
Based on the above background, the layout of the chess game when Yuan Michang Dao appeared: The main theme of the democrats in the past six years is the line struggle between "moderate" and "violent resistance." The "play" has not changed. Yuan believes that today’s protesters may not be ignorant of the limited actual effect of "Zong Ci", but what they really want to achieve is to use the "Provisional Legislative Council 2.0", "Accept Zhaoan", and "Human Blood Steamed Buns". The popular slogan requires the traditional pan-people to participate in the general speech, thus replacing the traditional pan-people as the mainstream of the democratic movement. If the pan-people agree to the general remarks, they will lose their resources and visibility in the parliament. At the same time, they will show that they have to listen to the "instructions" of the protesters; if the traditional pan-people reject the general remarks, they can also take the opportunity to question the traditional pan-people's "instructions". "The will to resist" will weaken its acceptance in the democrat camp, or take a step back, and it can also require the traditional pan-people to join more protest programs in the coming year.
"This year's political environment is a unique opportunity for the protesters to seize the dominant position within the democrats. The political environment is sufficiently polarized. The traditional pan-democratic parties in the district councils are only a minority of the democrats as a whole, and the protesters have already Interpreting the results of the primary elections as if they are recognized by the public, the current situation within the democrats is advantageous to confrontational factions." Yuan Michang said.
In 2020, the local faction has merged into the "resistance faction" in a broad sense. Recently, many members of the protest faction have spoken out and demanded the general remarks of the pan-people. (Photo by Li Zetong/Photo of Profile)
Questioning the high risk of the general rhetoric may lead to the "disintegration" of the democrats
However, Yuan Michang believes that this political operation of the protesters will do more harm than good to the democrats themselves, because the general speech itself is extremely dangerous. The parliament has been short of democratic representatives for a long time, and some limited but important checks and balances will be lost. Moreover, the National People's Congress has decided to extend the term of the parliament for "not less than a year," which means that this situation has a chance to last longer.
He asked in turn, under the double attack of the current epidemic and the national security law, street protests will not pick up again in the short term. What exactly can be achieved by the so-called "nuclear bomb-level statement" and "increasing the tension of the protest." Moreover, once they stepped down from public office, everyone was just a passerby in the political world. "In front of the media and foreigners, "nothing", how can it arouse the attention of the outside world to the democratic movement?" The most serious situation is that the democrats are not in the blank period. If they think it will continue, the popular spirit will be lost, and the entire democratic faction will disintegrate and die.
The presence or absence of the democrats in the Legislative Council has recently become a major focus of political discussions. (Profile picture)
Cai Ziqiang questioned the three major contradictions: why not take the lead in resigning the district council?
[Extension of the Legislative Council] Ho Chun-jen opposes the "general speech": Democrats will not be kidnapped by protesters
Dismantling the bureau: The Panminist resignation against the "Provisional Legislative Council"? Scholars bearish: at most one or two days of international news
Legislative Council Democrats Natives