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What we need to know about the crisis in Belarus
President Lukashenko, Europe's last dictator, is facing the biggest challenge to his rapidly crumbling 26-year rule. How the future of the huge protest will be decided depends quite a bit on neighbor Putin
Tags- Belarus
- Alexander Lukashenko
- Russia
Guy Elster
Tuesday, August 18, 2020, 6:00 p.m.Demonstrations in Belarus, which have continued since last Sunday's presidential election, refuse to die down and pressure on veteran ruler Alexander Lukashenko to retire after more than a quarter of a century in power grows as the hours go by. Here is what we know about the biggest crisis the former Soviet republic has been going through since gaining its independence with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.
The biggest challenge for Lukashenko. Thousands of protesters in Minsk, last night (Photo: AP)What's the bottom line? Lukashenko, who has led Belarus since 1994, declared victory in last Sunday's election by a huge margin - 80% compared to about 10% of his rival Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, a former teacher who entered the race only after her husband, an anti-government blogger, was jailed.
She claims victory, but was forced to flee to neighboring Lithuania under regime pressure. From there it encourages the huge demonstrations, which pose the greatest challenge to the rule of the so-called "last dictator of Europe".
What is the situation in the country? Every day more sectors join an unprecedented protest against the government, which also includes extensive strikes. In the early days, security forces cracked down on the protesters, killing at least two of them and arresting thousands more.
However, after the severe violence, which according to evidence also includes severe torture, only fueled the anger over Lukashenko, some of the vital sectors on which he relied throughout his rule - workers, policemen and soldiers - began to rebuke. Lukashenko tried to downplay their weight in the first days of the protest, but the numbers of protesters are rising.
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Russian President Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Lukashenko (Photo: AP)How did the world react? Allies of Belarus' president, led by Russian President Vladimir Putin, and leaders of other non-democratic countries around the world have been quick to congratulate him on his "victory" last week, but EU sanctions are being formulated on senior officials. Europe is demanding that Minsk hold new elections, overseen by foreign observers, but Lukashenko said it would happen "only if he is killed." However, he is already showing signs of compromise and has proposed holding a referendum on a new constitution that would divide his powers.
Sanctions are being formulated in the EU. Thousands protest in Minsk against Lukashenko (Photo: AP)What happens next? Most of the eyes are on Russia, that if it stands aside, Lukashenko's days will probably be numbered. The Kremlin said Putin had promised to help Lukashenko militarily if needed, in line with the military alliance between the two countries.
Europe has warned Russia not to intervene, but Russia sees Belarus as a strategic buffer zone between it and the NATO alliance and has in the past spoken out against "colorful revolutions" in the former Soviet republics. Any direct military intervention by Russia could increase Western sanctions Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 following the fall of the pro-Russian president.
