In Brussels
Gestures and words are not confusing. Gathered, virtually, for an extraordinary summit, European leaders are increasing the pressure on Alexander Lukashenko. The August 9 presidential elections in Belarus “were neither free nor fair. We do not recognize the results ”, said the Presidents of the European Council and of the European Commission, Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen. In unison, the Twenty-Seven condemn “disproportionate and unacceptable violence” and call for a “full and transparent investigation” .
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Sanction those responsible for violence and electoral fraud. This is one of the lines of action confirmed by the leaders. The political decision was taken by the foreign ministers, five days after the elections. Particularly fast timing for the Europeans, a reflection of their determination.
These sanctions (freezing of assets and ban on travel within the Union) will be "soon" adopted and will target a "substantial" number of regime officials, insisted Charles Michel.
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If attention is focused on this point, the real challenge of the Twenty-Seven lies elsewhere. The balance to be struck is fragile, especially with the specter of the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, which even the calendar evokes. The last time an extraordinary summit was called in August, it was precisely on Ukraine.
For the Twenty-Seven, there is no question of watching without taking action, in particular if Belarus approaches Russia. But be careful not to intervene too strongly, not to appear as an actor in the national process and thus give arms to Lukashenko. It is also a question of calming the fears of Moscow which, without mentioning the Europeans, points out the "attempts of interference of foreign powers" .
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It is in particular the fear of a Russian military intervention which pushed Brussels to organize the summit. No wonder Charles Michel, Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel all picked up their phones to speak with Vladimir Putin. Nor that the President of the European Council noted the statements of the Kremlin assuring that Russia does not intend to intervene militarily in Belarus.
Support projects
As for the political process, the Europeans ask the authorities to engage in an inclusive national dialogue. No explicit call for new elections, but the expression of support for the democratic aspirations of Belarusians.
“People in Belarus know what they want. This is why we want an independent way for Belarus, where the political conditions are decided by the country itself ”, in a “ peaceful and dialogue ”way , explains Ursula von der Leyen. The idea of European mediation has disappeared. This ambition now rests on the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), of which Russia is a member.
The Twenty-Seven also spoke directly to Belarusian citizens, multiplying messages of support and solidarity. For the moment, this translates into a reallocation of funds intended for Belarus under the Eastern Partnership. 2 million euros will go to "victims of repression and state violence" , and 1 million to support projects for civil society and an independent press.
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The bulk of the envelope, 50 million, will take the form of aid against the effects of the coronavirus, which will be paid to the health sector as well as to SMEs. The Europeans also insisted on the importance of ensuring “the integrity of people” , in particular those likely to be actors in the political transition process. Light but important, explains someone close to the case, who sees it as an open door for subsequent action that can be decided at the operational level.
