It is difficult for Japan to replicate Hong Kong's status as an international financial center

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Written by: Commentary Editing Room

2020-08-21 06:15

Kyodo News recently quoted news reports that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe believes that the passage of the Minato National Security Act will cause people to flow out of Hong Kong and intends to use this opportunity to develop the western Japanese city of Osaka or Fukuoka into a new international financial center. Abe did not choose the capital Tokyo. It is reported that Tokyo already has many functions, so it is better to find another choice outside Tokyo. Japan has always intended to take a share of the Asian financial services industry, but if it simply regards the "Minato National Security Act" as an opportunity, its wishful thinking may not succeed in the end.

There is no evidence that Hong Kong is losing funds

Western countries assume that the "Hong Kong National Security Law" will cause a large loss of talents in Hong Kong. However, this is still more imagination than reality and lacks substantial evidence. Of course, the flow of talent will be relatively slow, and it cannot be seen in a moment. But from the perspective of funds that flow faster than talents, even if the "Hong Kong National Security Law" has been introduced for some time, there is no abnormal outflow of funds from Hong Kong. Moreover, since the United States started unlimited currency easing in response to the epidemic, a large amount of hot money has flowed into Hong Kong. As a result, Hong Kong exchange rate has been slashed by strong parties for a long time. In the past few months, the HKMA has repeatedly sold Hong Kong dollars to balance remittances.

Moreover, even if there is a loss of talents in Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, Australia, Europe, and even the United States have long been coveting Hong Kong talents and the funds they bring, and they have introduced many policies to attract Hong Kong people to emigrate. It is difficult for Japan to get much "cake". kid".

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Japan must first strengthen

Japan's economy is inherently caught between the two major markets of the United States and China, and the two places themselves have huge financial centers. The United States has New York, and it is impossible to benefit Japan. China will even more expand its financial market centered on Hong Kong, and will never transfer its business to Japan. Moreover, the environment in Asia is inherently unfavorable for Japan's development as a financial center. In Asia, the largest economic growth drivers are in China and Southeast Asia, which also means that the largest markets for financial services are also in these two regions. However, it is impossible for China to fake its hands with Japan, and there is already a very mature Singapore playing a role in Southeast Asia, and it is difficult for Japan to intervene. Japan’s own economic momentum has been stagnant since the bubble burst many years ago, and even with its neighboring South Korea, it’s hard to see what it can do in Asian financial markets. The reality is that the Tokyo stock market is only a domestic market. Only 4 (0.1%) of the 3,687 listed companies are foreign.

Moreover, Japan has many disadvantages. If it is not improved, it will be difficult to compete with Hong Kong or Singapore. As we all know, Japan’s labor environment is harsh, working hours are long, and it is difficult to ask for leave. During the COVID-19 pandemic, there were constant cases of employees taking antipyretics for fear of being dismissed by the company. “Death from overwork” is also a long-term problem faced by Japanese workers. . If Japan does not improve on this, it will be difficult to attract talents from advanced regions. Japan’s population has experienced negative growth for many years. The government has already launched many plans to attract foreign talents, but the work environment in Japan has been ineffective.

On the other hand, Japan’s legal system is clearly unpopular to outsiders. Japan’s prosecutors are extremely powerful, the legal charges are complicated, and the prosecution rate is as high as 99%, which is not good for becoming a financial center. Carlos Ghosn, the former chairman of Nissan Motors, abandoned his bail and fled Japan early this year. Although full of controversy, Ghosn pointed out that he was not unwilling to bear legal responsibility, but he believed that there were problems in the Japanese judicial system and that he could hardly be treated fairly. Japan claims that the "Minato National Security Act" has challenged Hong Kong's judicial system, regardless of right or wrong, but Japan's judicial system cannot be said to attract foreign companies.

The incident of Ghosn’s absconding and absconding reflects the problems of the Japanese judicial system. (Getty Images)

The three arrows of "Abenomics" launched by Shinzo Abe in the early years. The first two arrows to stimulate the economy with more generous amounts and increased spending have been shot, but the third arrow that promotes the natural growth of the economy has not been issued for a long time. I am afraid that it will also be in the future. Lack of opportunity. This undoubtedly reflects the naivety of Japanese politicians' economic thinking. If Japanese politicians really want to change Japan's economic predicament, they must start by changing themselves.

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